Tail or Fade: CFB Week 7

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
YTD: 79-82, 49.1%, -5.56u
Week 1: 15-11, +.85u
Week 2: 5-19, -13.56u
Week 3: 13-13, -2.72u
Week 4: 16-12, +5.68u
Week 5: 16-5, +10.12u
Week 6: 14-22, -5.93u

Notre Dame -2.5, 1u -110
Alabama -5 / Ohio St. -4, 1u -115
Alabama -5 / OPEN, 1u -115
Pittsburgh -5, 1u -110
Pittsburgh -3, 1u -115
Texas Tech -1.5, 1u -110
Texas Tech -2, 1u -110
Texas Tech +1, 1u -103
Texas Tech +2, 1u -110
Appalachian St. -4 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Appalachian St. / Washington St., 1u -108
Appalachian St. TT o29, .5u -110
Washington St. -4, 1.5u -110
BYU / Michigan St., 1u -114
Louisville 1H -21, .5u -125
Louisville 1Q -7.5, .5u -120
Air Force -14, 1u -105
Akron TT o29.5, 1u -110
New Mexico St. +4, 1u -105
New Mexico St. ML, .5u +165
Georgia Southern +10.5, 1u -102
Georgia Southern +11, 1u -115
Northern Illinois -2, 2u -110
Akron +13, 1u -115
Akron +14, 1.5u -110
Miami Fl -6, 1u -110
Miami Fl TT o35, .5u -120
Ole Miss -6, 1u -115
 
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Started to lock in a few things early this week. I'll do more thorough analysis as the week goes on and post leans and then as I do my card. Not in love with this week at first blush and my goal is to have no more than 12 total plays.
 
Just gotta laugh that the first time I lock in bets early Pittsburgh moves to -3 and TX Tech to +1. Killed it.

With that, I'm buying Pittsburgh -3 1u
 
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Lean list:
Louisville 1H
Mississippi St. +7.5
Illinois -6
Georgia Southern +10.5
Indiana +4
UNC +6.5
Akron +10.5
NIU +2.5
Marshall -13.5
Washington St. -5
 
Thoughts on Appy St? I don't know shit about either team, just looking at the stats it seems that game against Akron has really inflated Appy's rushing average. Shocked to see them as 10 pt road chalk. Usually when something seems that out of whack to me it's for a reason.
 
App. St. is inflated not only for that reason but because they hung tough vs. Tenn early in season so people know their name (public perception). I wouldn't lay the 10 with App. St. but I think teasing them down or ML is a solid play. Both teams coming off a bye is a consideration as well.

App. St. is the best team in this conference hands down and they out match ULL. Lamb is the best QB in the conference and while the WRs have not played as well as they should, ULL's pass defense is suspect and I expect with 10+ days prep App. St. moves the ball. Appalachian can setup the pass with their very sound run game.

Taking a simple approach - App. St. is better on both sides of the ball. Gun to my head on picking a side and I'll bite on App. St. -10 however there are enough games on the schedule to lock in a teaser or ML parlay and get value that way.
 
If I was not already 2u deep on Appalachian St. I do love team total overs on weekday games. It is sitting at 29 and I really want to fire on it.
 
24 at half...didnt think the over would come down to last possession. Rally cap time...turnover pls
 
rambler882 said:
App. St. is inflated not only for that reason but because they hung tough vs. Tenn early in season so people know their name (public perception). I wouldn't lay the 10 with App. St. but I think teasing them down or ML is a solid play. Both teams coming off a bye is a consideration as well.

App. St. is the best team in this conference hands down and they out match ULL. Lamb is the best QB in the conference and while the WRs have not played as well as they should, ULL's pass defense is suspect and I expect with 10+ days prep App. St. moves the ball. Appalachian can setup the pass with their very sound run game.

Taking a simple approach - App. St. is better on both sides of the ball. Gun to my head on picking a side and I'll bite on App. St. -10 however there are enough games on the schedule to lock in a teaser or ML parlay and get value that way.
Click to expand...

Great analysis
 
Once that game went off the board for 2 days i kept checking back a bunch to lock in first line i saw. Was thrilled at -4.

It moving to -7 i cant reco it anymore. Teasing it or ml parlay is your best bet. Otherwise just let it go. It crossed and landed on a key number.

Id wait it out and hope for -6 and go half a normal wager. If not teaser or parlay gets you value.
 
Air Force -14, 1u -105
Akron TT o29.5, 1u -110
New Mexico St. +4, 1u -105
New Mexico St. ML, .5u +165
Georgia Southern +10.5, 1u -102
 
in regards to texas tech there are a lot of random things that jump out at me. First i'll mention what I don't like is WVU having 2 weeks to prepare which normally is a red flag for me to not play...but

Ranked team on the road versus unranked team and the line opens at unranked -2. Immediately has me look into the game. The line moving from -2 to -1 to +1 to +2.5 is not ideal from a value perspective but with the likelihood of mass points being scored it shouldn't deter you. Then reviewing WVU's games there is nothing overly impressive to note. Sneak past their two big games in Kansas St. and BYU meaning no decisive wins. With Texas Tech you know they are going to score so it boils down to can the other team out score them. In the case of WVU I do not think so.

WVU is more known for their defense and I'm not certain even with 2 weeks to prepare anything can be done against TX Tech. Yes, they have Oklahoma on deck but WVU is undefeated so they shouldn't be looking ahead.

This is not necessarily a game I'm playing due to specific matchups, but more perception + actual results + WVU is overrated.
 
Texas Tech +2, 1u -110 ... 4u total

Will be back for afternoon slate. I want Akron to hit +14, Nebraska to settle at -3, and see if I can get more action on MSU somehow.
 
Texas Tech a nail biter. Deserve that loss for ignoring a few key things like WVU off a bye and dismissing it that they will have a great gameplan. I'm ready to play TCU next week though.

All good, we will end up on the right side by end of day.
 
I'm with ya rambler, woulda been nice to know that Mahomes could barely actually throw a football today
 
kjohnson109 said:
I'm with ya rambler, woulda been nice to know that Mahomes could barely actually throw a football today
Click to expand...

Yea been taking a few on the chin and plenty of my leans are hitting, just playing the wrong ones for the past 2 weeks. Still feeling decent even with a big loss. Eye balling Ole Miss tonight but want to see how afternoon games shake out.
 
Hey all, they just ruled out Akron QB Woodson. Definitely a kick in the gut as I'm on them big. I'm not going to buy off but cannot recommend the play.
 
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