Tail or Fade CFB Week 6

[rambler882]

YTD: 65-60, 52%, +.37u
Week 1: 15-11, +.85u
Week 2: 5-19, -13.56u
Week 3: 13-13, -2.72u
Week 4: 16-12, +5.68u
Week 5: 16-5, +10.12u

Texas A&M -7, 2u +100
Old Dominion -4 / Texas A&M -1, 1u -115
Tx AM ml / closed, 1u +101
Virginia Tech +1.5, 2u -109
Army +7, 1u -120
Army +6, 1u -115
Penn St. +3, 1u -115
Penn St. +1, 1u -109
Arkansas St. +7, 1u -115
Louisiana Tech TT o33, 1u -110
Louisiana Tech +3, 1u -110
USC -5, 1u -110
USC -5.5, 1u -110
Tulsa TT o40, 1u -110
Tulsa -8 / Old Dominion -4, 1u -115
New Mexico +19, 1u -105
BC-Clemson 2H u21, .5u -120
BC +7 2H, .5u EV
Tulsa -3.5 live, .5u -110
Syracuse +4, 1u -108
Iowa +2, 1u -105
Georgia St. -10, 1u -102
Georgia St. 2H -4, 1u -105
Toledo -12 / UCLA -3, 1u -115
Air Force -11, 1u -120
Air Force 2H -7, 1u -115
Notre Dame +3, 1u -110
Oregon +10, 1u -105
Oregon +11, .5u -118
Illinois -3 / Alabama -8, 1u -105
Illinois -9, .5u -106
Marshall -11, 1u -115
Florida St. +3, 1u -120
Texas +14, 1u -121
Oklahoma -13, .6u -105
Mississippi St. +4, 1u -107
Alabama -9 / UCLA -3 / Georgia -1, 1u +173
Kansas St. -3 / OPEN, 1u -115
UCLA TT o33, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Lean List:
[TABLE="width: 167"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Georgia Southern -7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Louisiana Tech +3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SMU +17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]New Mexico +17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LSU -2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Notre Dame +1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Penn St. +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iowa -2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Texas +10.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Toledo -17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Army +4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michigan St. -6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virginia Tech +2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ohio St. TT over[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Texas A&M -7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia St. -10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]USC -5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Syracuse +2.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marshall -10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Georgia -7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oregon +8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Florida St. +3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stanford -7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[rambler882]

Texas A&M -7, 2u +100

 

[bluedevilboy]

Can you give specific thoughts on Texas A&M?

 

[rambler882]

Certainly. At a high level Tennessee is vastly overrated and the line is indicative of that. Tennessee has Alabama on deck off of a very emotional win. Classic sandwich spot so I had it circled. It opened at -6 and by the time I got around to locking it in it moved to -7.

Tennessee could easily be 2-3 or 3-2 meanwhile TXAM is a quality team top to bottom. TX AM seemed to sleep walk vs South Carolina which could mean they were already looking ahead. Also TX AM is entering a bye week, they will be 100% focused and up for this game.

Situations is a big part of how I bet. I also layer in matchups, personnel, and applying what I've learned over the years. I really like this play as I think not only is TX AM the better team, but there is quite a bit against UT here.

The key is to not go overboard no matter how much you like a play. I love this one but anything can happen on any day. I went overboard on my CHI Bears for MNF and it cost me about 8u. It never pans out when I go too deep on a single game haha. Who knows I may end up playing ML or teasing it down as well. Will see.

TX AM pass rush should cause turnovers and make life hell for UT offense.

 

[rambler882]

Looking at Arkansas St. plus the points tonight. Will wait closer to kickoff to lock it in.

 

[rambler882]

well this line has moved back down to +7.....missed my opportunity at +8.5. May lock it in if I can get 7.5 at a decent price.

 

[bloodhound]

BOL on them All rambler

:shake:

 

[rambler882]

Arkansas St. +7, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

got played on the line, oh well. Let's get it.

 

[rambler882]

Louisiana Tech TT o33, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Louisiana Tech +3, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

TT ... 1h cash. Like coming home to that.

 

[rambler882]

USC -5, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

Tulsa TT o40, 1u -110
Tulsa -8 / Old Dominion -4, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

New Mexico +19, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Old Dominion -4 / Texas A&M -1, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Boston College 2H +7, .5u EV
BC-Clemson 2H u21, .5u -120

 

[Cruse]

BC looked terrible...

 

[rambler882]

Tulsa -3.5 live, .5u -110

 

[rambler882]

Friday night fade. Ugh

 

[rambler882]

BC looked terrible...

yea it was a degen play. work was crazy today, got home and needed something to pay attention to. Sorry for the bad fire.

 

[rambler882]

Syracuse +4, 1u -108
Iowa +2, 1u -105
Virginia Tech +1.5, 2u -109
Georgia St. -10, 1u -102
USC -5.5, 1u -110
Army +6, 1u -115
Penn St. +3, 1u -115
Toledo -12 / UCLA -3, 1u -115
Air Force -11, 1u -120

 

[rambler882]

Strong leans on NCST, Oregon, FSU, Miss St., & Illinois

 

[rambler882]

Notre Dame +3, 1u -110

Went back and forth on this all week. Told myself to stay away but in the end going to pay to find out how good NC ST is. I know ND isnt the best, but their offense alone gives them an edge. Maybe the defense shows up for once.

 

[rambler882]

Army +7, 1u -120
Oregon +10, 1u -105
Illinois -3 / OPEN, 1u -105
Marshall -11, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Illinois -9, .5u -106

 

[rambler882]

closing Illinois with Alabama -8.
Florida St. +3, 1u -120

 

[rambler882]

Penn St. +1, 1u -109

 

[rambler882]

Texas +14, 1u -121

 

[rambler882]

Buying off Texas a little with Oklahoma -13 for .6u at -105

 

[rambler882]

Mississippi St. +4, 1u -107

 

[rambler882]

Tx AM ml / closed, 1u +101

 

[rambler882]

Air Force 2H -7, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Georgia St. 2H -4, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Oregon +11, .5u -118

 

[rambler882]

Alabama -9 / UCLA -3 / Georgia -1, 1u +173

 

[rambler882]

Kansas St. -3 / OPEN, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

UCLA TT o33, 1u -110

 

[rambler882]

14-22 for -5.93 on the week.

Played too many games clearly and was just wagering to wager. All my core plays I wrote down did pretty well. I can't promise anything but I'm going to try and limit plays moving forward haha.

I will get back into the positive...typically do.

YTD: 79-82, 49.1%, -5.56u
Week 1: 15-11, +.85u
Week 2: 5-19, -13.56u
Week 3: 13-13, -2.72u
Week 4: 16-12, +5.68u
Week 5: 16-5, +10.12u
Week 6: 14-22, -5.93u