Tail or Fade: Bowl Season II

rambler882

rambler882

Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Regular Season: +24.4u
Bowls Part I: -3.05u

Figured I'd start a new thread to help clean it up a bit. Updated card, heavier on Oregon than I wanted, whoops.

Liberty +8.5 / LSU -9.5, 1u +105
Central Florida +3.5, 2u -115
Kansas o32.5, 1u -115
Kansas-Arkansas o69.5, 1u -110
Raheim Sanders o20.5, 1u -114
Raheim Sanders o118.5, 2u -114
Oregon -5.5 / Oklahoma +17.5, 1u -135
Oregon / Minnesota / LSU, 1u -129
Oregon / Ole Miss, 2u -117
Oregon 1H -7, 1u -115
Ole Miss -3, 1u -125
 
How long until I regret flipping to Ark after being a scared pussy of everyone on kansas and me wimping out?
 
You probably should have stayed with Arkansas. I have noticed when the majority of my cappingthegame.com friends are on the same side go opposite. I hate doing it but it's almost a guarantee.
 
rambler882 said:
Regular Season: +24.4u
Bowls Part I: -3.05u

Figured I'd start a new thread to help clean it up a bit. Updated card, heavier on Oregon than I wanted, whoops.

Liberty +8.5 / LSU -9.5, 1u +105
Central Florida +3.5, 2u -115
Kansas o32.5, 1u -115
Kansas-Arkansas o69.5, 1u -110
Raheim Sanders o20.5, 1u -114
Raheim Sanders o118.5, 2u -114
Oregon -5.5 / Oklahoma +17.5, 1u -135
Oregon / Minnesota / LSU, 1u -129
Oregon / Ole Miss, 2u -117
Oregon 1H -7, 1u -115
Ole Miss -3, 1u -125
Click to expand...
3rd of like 5 player props to get injured.
 
Weird, going overboard and off the walls did not work out... one day it might? Bowl season was going alright even with doing dumb shit until yesterday, caught up with me for -15u. Time to win it back or lose more... which will it be? Stay tuned.

Minnesota -9.5 / Ibrahim TD, 2u -124
Minnesota 1H o13.5, 1u -115
Minnesota o27.5, 2u -113
Minnesota / Texas, 2u +107
Texas -3, 2u -110
Oklahoma +10.5, 3u -115
 
Last edited:
rambler882 said:
Weird, going overboard and off the walls did not work out... one day it might? Bowl season was going alright even with doing dumb shit until yesterday, caught up with me for -15u. Time to win it back or lose more... which will it be? Stay tuned.

Minnesota -9.5 / Ibrahim TD, 2u -124
Minnesota 1H o13.5, 1u -115
Minnesota o27.5, 2u -113
Minnesota / Texas, 2u +107
Texas -3, 2u -110
Oklahoma +10.5, 2u -115
Click to expand...
Quick thoughts on rationale.

Minnesota. Syracuse will struggle to stop the run, Fleck in the coaching matchup, Syracuse will throw often which will either speed up game / give more possessions to Minnesota. Minnesota based on all metrics are a mismatch on each side of the ball and are at full strength

Oklahoma. the starting tackle opt outs worry me more than anything but Florida St. did not have any double digit wins versus quality teams this year. For all of OU's faults, they are a top 25 team. And they are a top 25 team that has not lost by more than a TD while Gabriel under center. Also, I'm putting stock into my guy Venables. Opt outs can be worrisome but this isn't a trash program, the backups for OU inevitably are highly recruited players so hopefully not a significant drop off

Texas. Maybe I'm biased being an IU alum who hates his school but Penix was shit there and I faded that over hyped dude non stop. I get the stats on the year, but I'm just not impressed by Washington's schedule at all (50th). I get the wins vs. Oregon/Oregon St. that people are pointing to but how about Texas' wins? Yea opt outs, but their 3rd string RB (Brooks) is a 4 star recruit who did fuck up Kansas a bit. If you buy into "public betting" at all, it is strange to me that over 70% of bets are on Washington too

I'll probably add a bit inevitably as we get closer to kickoffs of each.
 
rambler882 said:
Weird, going overboard and off the walls did not work out... one day it might? Bowl season was going alright even with doing dumb shit until yesterday, caught up with me for -15u. Time to win it back or lose more... which will it be? Stay tuned.

Minnesota -9.5 / Ibrahim TD, 2u -124
Minnesota 1H o13.5, 1u -115
Minnesota o27.5, 2u -113
Minnesota / Texas, 2u +107
Texas -3, 2u -110
Oklahoma +10.5, 2u -115
Click to expand...
Minnesota -5.5 / UCLA -2.5, 2u +105
UCLA / Alabama, 3u +101
Notre Dame -3, 2u -115
 
Another frustrating day as it had the makings to be huge. Minnesota moose at end of game with -9.5 and Texas dropping TDs (still could have lost obviously) just adds to a shitty few days. Only lost 1.5u yesterday, but thought was going to be a double digit win day. I'm bigger on UCLA than I would have liked and would of preferred 4u vs. the 7u I have rolling to win.

Currently locked in:

NC State Pk, 3u -117
Notre Dame -3, 2u -115
Notre Dame / Clemson, 2u +132
UCLA 1H -5.5, 1u +100
UCLA 1H -5.5 / Estime TD, 1u +221
UCLA / Alabma, 3u +101
UCLA -2.5 / Minnesota -5.5, 2u +105
Clemson / Florida St., 1u -114
Clemson -5.5, 1.5u -115
Clemson 1H -3, 1.5u -115
Clemson o34.5, 1.5u +102
Ohio ML, 1.5u -138
Alabama 1H -3.5, 2u -110

LSU / Oregon / Minnesota, 1u -129
LSU -9.5 / Liberty +8.5, 1u +105

NCST ML / Clemson ML / Klubnik TD / Dame ML / Estime TD / UCLA ML, 1u +1376
 
Last edited:
rambler882 said:
Another frustrating day as it had the makings to be huge. Minnesota moose at end of game with -9.5 and Texas dropping TDs (still could have lost obviously) just adds to a shitty few days. Only lost 1.5u yesterday, but thought was going to be a double digit win day. I'm bigger on UCLA than I would have liked and would of preferred 4u vs. the 7u I have rolling to win.

Currently locked in:

NC State Pk, 2u -115
Notre Dame -3, 2u -115
Notre Dame / Clemson, 2u +132
UCLA 1H -5.5, 1u +100
UCLA 1H -5.5 / Estime TD, 1u +221
UCLA / Alabma, 3u +101
UCLA -2.5 / Minnesota -5.5, 2u +105
Clemson / Florida St., 1u -114
Alabama 1H -3.5, 2u -110

LSU / Oregon / Minnesota, 1u -129
LSU -9.5 / Liberty +8.5, 1u +105
Click to expand...
Clemson -5.5, 1.5u -115
Clemson 1H -3, 1.5u -115
Clemson o34.5, 1.5u +102
 
I'm seeing things very much the same. Hopefully that's a good thing. That scramble for Cuse to both end the 1h and final score on 4th downs were trash luck box crap. Minny wasn't good enough to cover but they were right there to sneak one out for sure.
 
Add unit to ncst for 3u total
Estime TD, 1u -165 @B.A.R. I cant quit ‘em

And the win back parlay…

NCST ML / Clemson ML / Klubnik TD / Dame ML / Estime TD / UCLA ML, 1u +1376
 
Inspekdah said:
I'm seeing things very much the same. Hopefully that's a good thing. That scramble for Cuse to both end the 1h and final score on 4th downs were trash luck box crap. Minny wasn't good enough to cover but they were right there to sneak one out for sure.
Click to expand...

Yes sir! Quick hits:

NCST. MD losing majority of offensive weapons while MD is locked n loaded on defense. Morris starting and apparently fully healthy I really like ncst vs depleted MD who doesnt gave 4 star backups. Drop off should be high unlike OU.

UCLA. Akin to MD, Pitt just losing too many players on defense. Already a shitty Off losing the qb/rb Im not putting much stock in backups. Defense is pitt strength and hindsight loading up on 1H UCLA ML better bet but all good. Just dont know when starters pulled

ND. SoCar losing key players but the main play here is ND should dominate trenches. Playing Estime TD v yards bc split carries. ND run game should control this, risk is explosive plays v nd but socar down a few key off players

Clemson. This one is instinct more than anything. Sometimes i just gamble and think klubnik elevates squad a bit
 
rambler882 said:
Another frustrating day as it had the makings to be huge. Minnesota moose at end of game with -9.5 and Texas dropping TDs (still could have lost obviously) just adds to a shitty few days. Only lost 1.5u yesterday, but thought was going to be a double digit win day. I'm bigger on UCLA than I would have liked and would of preferred 4u vs. the 7u I have rolling to win.

Currently locked in:

NC State Pk, 3u -117
Notre Dame -3, 2u -115
Notre Dame / Clemson, 2u +132
UCLA 1H -5.5, 1u +100
UCLA 1H -5.5 / Estime TD, 1u +221
UCLA / Alabma, 3u +101
UCLA -2.5 / Minnesota -5.5, 2u +105
Clemson / Florida St., 1u -114
Clemson -5.5, 1.5u -115
Clemson 1H -3, 1.5u -115
Clemson o34.5, 1.5u +102
Alabama 1H -3.5, 2u -110

LSU / Oregon / Minnesota, 1u -129
LSU -9.5 / Liberty +8.5, 1u +105
Click to expand...
Ohio ML, 1.5u -138
 
Probably last one. Promo of betting 4+ leg parlay and getting half money back. Sure, why not.

NCST / UCLA / Ohio / ND, 1u +513
 
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