System Plays CFB Bowl Games / YTD 127-97-3 (57%)

[PappyOSU]

Best of luck during bowl season. There is plenty of situational value this time of year and we are going to find it. Ill do my best to help everyone pick some winners. Ill get an unofficial update posted this weekend in case it helps anyone doing a bowl pick `em contest.

CFB thread below, NFL week 14 onwards will be posted in that forum. Lets finish strong.

Combined YTD Record Splits Update - NFL and CFB

	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	85	219	151	11	59.19%
CFB Spread Record	26.5	117	93	4	55.71%
CFB Totals Record	5.5	10	4	0	71.43%
NFL Spread Record	45	69	43	6	61.61%
NFL Totals Record	8	23	11	1	67.65%
	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	85	219	151	11	59.19%
CFB Week 0	1.5	3	0	0	100.00%
CFB Week 1	3	12	4	0	75.00%
CFB Week 2	2.5	10	6	1	62.50%
CFB Week 3	3	9	7	0	56.25%
CFB Week 4	9	10	7	0	58.82%
CFB Week 5	-5.5	10	11	1	47.62%
CFB Week 6	-8	7	9	0	43.75%
CFB Week 7	5.5	9	5	1	64.29%
CFB Week 8	5.5	9	3	0	75.00%
CFB Week 9	-1.5	6	11	0	35.29%
CFB Week 10	4.5	11	8	0	57.89%
CFB Week 11	0	9	9	0	50.00%
CFB Week 12	10.5	11	5	0	68.75%
CFB Week 13	-3.5	6	10	1	37.50%
CFB Conf Title	5.5	5	2	0	71.43%
NFL Week 1	11.5	11	3	0	78.57%
NFL Week 2	5.5	8	4	1	66.67%
NFL Week 3	14.5	10	2	2	83.33%
NFL Week 4	7.5	9	5	0	64.29%
NFL Week 5	6	9	4	0	69.23%
NFL Week 6	-2.5	4	7	0	36.36%
NFL Week 7	2	2	2	0	50.00%
NFL Week 8	1	8	4	0	66.67%
NFL Week 9	6.5	7	5	2	58.33%
NFL Week 10	2	9	6	0	60.00%
NFL Week 11	-1	5	5	2	50.00%
NFL Week 12	-3.5	6	5	0	54.55%
NFL Week 13	3.5	4	2	0	66.67%
	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	85	219	151	11	59.19%
3 Unit Bets	15	21	16	2	56.76%
2.5 Unit Bets	7.5	21	18	3	53.85%
2 Unit Bets	22	31	20	0	60.78%
1.5 Unit Bets	12	30	22	3	57.69%
1 Unit Bets	16	51	35	1	59.30%
0.5 Unit Bets	12.5	65	40	2	61.90%

 

[lvmike32]

very impressive and thanks for posting. It's interesting that your lowest rated .5u plays have the highest winning % of 61.9%. Any thoughts on that? Not sure how long you've been doing this and if you have prior year data, but it'd be interesting to see the Year by Year summaries by these categories. A few clunker weeks but no way around that. As with anything, have to bankroll properly. Again, very impressive and thanks

 

[PappyOSU]

For what its worth there is no system play for Army/Navy.

Leans to the under and Navy an how I personally will be playing this game

Team	Source Count	Composite Score
Over 32.5	13	0
Under 32.5	14	6
Army +2.5	16	0
Navy -2.5	18	11

BOL to all

 

[PappyOSU]

Composite scoring data is still pretty thin on CFB bowls. Have tallied and scored about 15 of my 40 sources. Most historical/situational trends, early sharp money vs. public tickets info, handful of cappers, etc. Lots of outstanding sources are still pending though.. Many of these picks will start trickling in soon so Ill get a decent value added update posted in the next day or two, and stay on top of it. Lets win some survivor pools.

Finishing up NFL now then ill turn my focus to the bowl games.

Edit: Also how great was the Army/Navy game? Its like the sportsbooks wrote the script themselves. I thought my personal pizza bet parlay on Navy and the Under was golden, then it was suddenly a major grind, then it suddenly wasn't golden at all.. lol. That was the ultimate coin flip game and a fun one. At least I got my money worth on my L

 

[PappyOSU]

very impressive and thanks for posting. It's interesting that your lowest rated .5u plays have the highest winning % of 61.9%. Any thoughts on that? Not sure how long you've been doing this and if you have prior year data, but it'd be interesting to see the Year by Year summaries by these categories. A few clunker weeks but no way around that. As with anything, have to bankroll properly. Again, very impressive and thanks

I appreciate the kind words. This is my 6th year doing the composite scoring system, all have been profitable though I can only prove that in writing for the past 4 years lol. Started doing this as a hobby just for myself.. it worked well so I shared with friends.. its kept working so I started posting and now try to share with as many people possible.

Its changed and grown a lot over the years. For example I just started recommending units according to final composite score 2 years ago. And this is the first year I had software to easily track and post the record splits. I will post yearly record splits for the past 2 years. I just have to format all the data into my new software, but thats the point when Inputs/scoring were standardized according to the same written process and procedure every week.

FYI prior to that I just posted the system picks on a pass/fail basis, and all were 1 unit bets (for myself and friends mostly). When I finally had enough sample size to track win % in relation to each composite score (and where the noticeable drops in win% were) the per unit cut lines were established from there.. Prior years plays are all posted on rivals.com and other OSU message boards in case wondering. Always happy to talk about this.

Each off season I do a data analysis and deep dive on everything. I'm a numbers nerd and I love this part, but the main purpose is continuous improvement.. always... Definitely curious/pleased about the 0.5 unit bet success. Im equally curious/concerned about why the most confident 3 unit/2.5 unit bets are lagging behind. Also the plays that just missed the cut. Etc..

Ill have a season recap to share, and also include all of my prior years record splits as soon as im in the clubhouse for this year. Always looking for feedback as well.

Thanks again for kind words, and LFG

 

[PappyOSU]

Final Composite Scores - CFB Bowls Friday Dec 16

Pick	Source Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Miami OH +10.5	15	55	2.5
Troy/UTSA Over 56.5	6	30	1.5
Miami OH/UAB Over 45	5	24	1

Best of luck everyone. Saturday's composite results will be posted asap.

 

[PappyOSU]

Here is the FYI so far regarding source selection from what I have available.

No scores posted for these because they are still largely incomplete (except Friday's games) but I promised an update where things stand to maybe help with bowl challenges/pools so here it is.

Team	Source Count
Miami OH	15
Southern Miss	12
WKU	11
Fresno St	10
EMU	9
BYU	8
Florida	8
Marshall	8
Boise St	7
Liberty	7
New Mexico St	7
Troy	7
UNT	7
Washington	7
Air Force	6
Iowa	6
Louisville	6
Memphis	6
Mississippi St	6
Oregon St	6
Rice	6
Uconn	6
Bowling Green	5
FSU	5
NC State	5
Okie St	5
Penn St	5
So Alabama	5
Tennessee	5
Toledo	5
Washington St	5
Wisconsin	5
Buffalo	4
Cincinnati	4
ECU	4
Ga Southern	4
Kentucky	4
Ohio St	4
Ole Miss	4
Oregon	4
Pitt	4
South Carolina	4
UAB	4
USC	4
UTSA	4
Baylor	3
Duke	3
Georgia	3
Houston	3
Illinois	3
Kansas	3
Kansas St	3
Michigan	3
Minnesota	3
Missouri	3
MTSU	3
Ohio	3
Purdue	3
SJSU	3
ULL	3
UNC	3
Wake Forest	3
Alabama	2
Arkansas	2
Clemson	2
LSU	2
Oklahoma	2
SMU	2
Texas Tech	2
Tulane	2
UCF	2
Maryland	1
Notre Dame	1
SDSU	1
Syracuse	1
TCU	1
UCLA	1
Utah	1
Utah St	1
Wyoming	1

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff Pappy! Let's have a great bowl season.

 

[PappyOSU]

CFB Bowl Record 1-2 (down juice) / CFB Year To Date 128-99-4 (+32 units)

Final Composite Scores - CFB December 17th

Team	Source Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Southern Miss -6.5	21	70	3 (Max Bet)
Fresno St -4	19	69	3 (Max Bet)
BYU +4	14	45	2
Boise St -10.5	11	29	1
Boise St/UNT Over 59.5	6	25	1
BYU/SMU Over 64.5	5	21	1
Marshall -10	13	10	FYI
Oregon St -8	10	2	FYI
Cincinnati +2	9	9	FYI

YTD Records - By Unit - CFB Spreads and CFB Totals

CFB SPREAD	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	29	118	93	4	55.92%
3 Unit Bets	3	9	8	1	52.94%
2.5 Unit Bets	-5	10	12	2	45.45%
2 Unit Bets	14	18	11	0	62.07%
1.5 Unit Bets	12	20	12	0	62.50%
1 Unit Bets	-1	26	27	1	49.06%
0.5 Unit Bets	6	35	23	0	60.34%

CFB TOTALS	Unit P&L	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
Overall	3	10	6	0	62.50%
3 Unit Bets	0	0	0	0	-
2.5 Unit Bets	2.5	1	0	0	100.00%
2 Unit Bets	-2	0	1	0	0%
1.5 Unit Bets	-1.5	0	1	0	0%
1 Unit Bets	3	4	1	0	80.00%
0.5 Unit Bets	1	5	3	0	62.50%

Best of luck to all.

 

[PappyOSU]

Final Composite Scores - CFB Bowls December 20th

Team	Source Count	Opponent Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Eastern Michigan +3.5	16	6	54	2.5
Liberty +3.5	17	9	39	1.5

Best of luck everyone

 

[carolinablue]

Final Composite Scores - CFB Bowls December 20th

Team	Source Count	Opponent Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Eastern Michigan +3.5	16	6	54	2.5
Liberty +3.5	17	9	39	1.5

Best of luck everyone

Great stuff man, you definitely add value to the forum and are a strong addition to the lineup, so thanks for taking the time to post!

 

[PappyOSU]

Great stuff man, you definitely add value to the forum and are a strong addition to the lineup, so thanks for taking the time to post!

Appreciate it and same to you, thanks for all your contributions here.

I’m glad you and others are finding this information useful and will keep doing all I can to help

LFG bro. Good luck always

 

[Eric Antrobus]

EMU!!

 

[PappyOSU]

2-0 Yesterday (+4 units) / 7-4 Bowl Season (+11 units) 63.6%

Final Composite Score - CFB Bowls Dec 21

Team	Source Count	Opponent Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
South Alabama -3.5	16	10	31	1.5

Best of luck to all tonight.

 

[PappyOSU]

0-1 Yesterday (-1.5 units) / 7-5 Bowl Season (+9.5 units) 58.3%

Final Composite Score - CFB Bowls Dec 22

Team	Source Count	Opponent Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Air Force +3.5	22	11	55	2.5
Air Force/Baylor Under 43	4	0	23	1

Best of luck everyone. Lets go

 

[splinter65]

This has quickly risen to a must read thread. Thanks for posting, Pappy

 

[MikeU]

Agreed, thank you Pappy!

This has quickly risen to a must read thread. Thanks for posting, Pappy

 

[PuffCaps]

Pappy helped pay for a nice Christmas this year. Thanks for all do papster!!

 

[B.A.R.]

This has quickly risen to a must read thread. Thanks for posting, Pappy

Absolutely it has...glad to see the thread getting the recognition...

 

[PappyOSU]

0-1 Yesterday (-1.5 units) / 7-5 Bowl Season (+9.5 units) 58.3%

Final Composite Score - CFB Bowls Dec 22

Team	Source Count	Opponent Count	Composite Score	Recommended Units
Air Force +3.5	22	11	55	2.5
Air Force/Baylor Under 43	4	0	23	1

Best of luck everyone. Lets go

1-1 for the day (+1.5 units)
8-6 Bowl Season (+11 units)

The unit profit has been solid so far, have to get the win % up for the parlay bettors. I’ll do my best!

Also for todays games (Dec 23) I’m sorry but not going to be able to post any plays unfortunately. It’s been a travel nightmare attempting to fly home to Buffalo for Christmas thanks to winter storm Elliott.

Highlight of the nightmare trip was my layover in Chicago. Two airport nightmares for the price of one, my very own Chicago double doink. Joy to the world! So after about the 9th hour of delay and getting on/off/on the plane from Vegas and sitting on runways and circling around airports, everyone was frustrated especially my 2 year old daughter that tossed all her remaining rational behavior into the garbage LOL.

This was highlighted by the royal rumble she started as soon as we finally landed in Chicago. In one corner we had the Crazy Karen who kept telling my daughter all flight to stop crying, then how bad of a baby she was, then how shitty of a dad I was, etc.. VS. my daughters sudden Bodyguard quietly sitting in front of Karen. I get it, crying babies on airplanes are not ideal whatsoever.. But Karen kept coming at us until suddenly Bodyguard had finally heard enough, called Karen the most annoying baby on the plane, then quite literally told Karen to shut the fuuuuk up. She then told Karen that since I couldn’t do anything to her, she would for me.. So Karen stood up immediately and blocked Bodyguard from getting her overhead bags, had the balls to tell Bodyguard to do something about it.. and before she finished that sentence Bodyguard just started delivering blows to Karen’s face like Santa delivers presents to kids around the world. Nobody broke up the fight either which was a lil weird, so I too sat there watching Karen consume knuckles and get destroyed for another 10 seconds before finally stepping between them and breaking it up. Made the entire trip worth it and nobody got arrested either. Bless you bodyguard, whoever you are. If I go viral and find a video online I’ll post here immediately. My daughter will appreciate this story someday.


I feel like I’m the mom from Home Alone right now, so Merry Christmas you filthy animals. Im still not home to Buffalo but I’m getting there very slowly


My apologies for the delay guys. Will post tomorrows CFB + NFL ASAP. Hang in there with me.

 

[jpfeck]

Safe travels Pappy!

 

[rambler882]

1-1 for the day (+1.5 units)
8-6 Bowl Season (+11 units)

The unit profit has been solid so far, have to get the win % up for the parlay bettors. I’ll do my best!

Also for todays games (Dec 23) I’m sorry but not going to be able to post any plays unfortunately. It’s been a travel nightmare attempting to fly home to Buffalo for Christmas thanks to winter storm Elliott.

Highlight of the nightmare trip was my layover in Chicago. Two airport nightmares for the price of one, my very own Chicago double doink. Joy to the world! So after about the 9th hour of delay and getting on/off/on the plane from Vegas and sitting on runways and circling around airports, everyone was frustrated especially my 2 year old daughter that tossed all her remaining rational behavior into the garbage LOL.

This was highlighted by the royal rumble she started as soon as we finally landed in Chicago. In one corner we had the Crazy Karen who kept telling my daughter all flight to stop crying, then how bad of a baby she was, then how shitty of a dad I was, etc.. VS. my daughters sudden Bodyguard quietly sitting in front of Karen. I get it, crying babies on airplanes are not ideal whatsoever.. But Karen kept coming at us until suddenly Bodyguard had finally heard enough, called Karen the most annoying baby on the plane, then quite literally told Karen to shut the fuuuuk up. She then told Karen that since I couldn’t do anything to her, she would for me.. So Karen stood up immediately and blocked Bodyguard from getting her overhead bags, had the balls to tell Bodyguard to do something about it.. and before she finished that sentence Bodyguard just started delivering blows to Karen’s face like Santa delivers presents to kids around the world. Nobody broke up the fight either which was a lil weird, so I too sat there watching Karen consume knuckles and get destroyed for another 10 seconds before finally stepping between them and breaking it up. Made the entire trip worth it and nobody got arrested either. Bless you bodyguard, whoever you are. If I go viral and find a video online I’ll post here immediately. My daughter will appreciate this story someday.


I feel like I’m the mom from Home Alone right now, so Merry Christmas you filthy animals. Im still not home to Buffalo but I’m getting there very slowly


My apologies for the delay guys. Will post tomorrows CFB + NFL ASAP. Hang in there with me.

Awesome story, glad you made it home, and glad my city provided a protector lol

 

[PappyOSU]

This nightmare continues.

Multiple flight delay notices stringing us along, then out of nowhere they just cancelled the flight. Ugly scene, everyone is pissed, workers are out of patience, each side mad at the other even though it’s nobody’s fault… I just want to be home.

No plays today sorry guys. I’m cursed with bad luck today anyways

Headed back to airport now for our next flight attempt.

 

[PappyOSU]

Awesome story, glad you made it home, and glad my city provided a protector lol

Not home quite yet. Yesterday felt like 10 straight delay of game penalties then just getting benched for the rest of the game lol. Praying today goes better.

However on a side note, Justin Fields is my favorite player. I freaking love watching him play.

 

[HUNT]

safe travels pappy..fuck the karens

 

[PappyOSU]

Well.. I’m still trying to figure out where our luggage is but Southwest Airlines has their head so very firmly lodged up their ass right now it’s been impossible. No bag means no laptop (or Xmas presents or underwear or weed gummies etc) so for system plays I just went old-school and tallied everything up by hand for the composite plays. That being said…


Final composite system CFB plays
Kansas +2.5 (2 units)
Oregon -13 (1 unit)


Hopefully back to normal soon.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Sounds like a baggage claim. I want a hunded thawsand..

 

[PappyOSU]

1-1 for the day (+1 unit)
9-7 Bowl Season (+12 units)

Profitable day thanks to Kansas not giving up and kicking down the back door. Still working to get that win % up though…

Hopefully I’ll get my laptop soon and back to my normal routine. Now that I’m at least settled in, I’ll talk to you all tomorrow

 

[B.A.R.]

1-1 for the day (+1 unit)
9-7 Bowl Season (+12 units)

Profitable day thanks to Kansas not giving up and kicking down the back door. Still working to get that win % up though…

Hopefully I’ll get my laptop soon and back to my normal routine. Now that I’m at least settled in, I’ll talk to you all tomorrow

Sounds like a wild week man.

Hopefully everything settles soon.

 

[PappyOSU]

Composite system CFB plays Dec 29

Minnesota -10.5 (1 unit)

Just wanted to get this game out, still working on the others

 

[PappyOSU]

Remaining Composite System CFB plays Dec 29

Florida St -10 (1 unit)
Washington +3 (1 unit)

Best of luck everyone.

 

[PappyOSU]

Also bowl game 1H unders are now 21-4 with Minnesota Cuse hitting just now. My OSU fan site gambling thread has been all over this and just making sure we’re all aware here. Guessing someone has highlighted it here as well though.

Auto bet 1H unders across the board for every game from this point forward and you will have more money than you started with.

 

[PappyOSU]

DAL/TEN under 40 is a 1 unit play too for NFL

I’ll get that thread going next

 

[PappyOSU]

Composite system plays Dec 30
Pitt +8 (2 units)
Wyoming +2.5 (1 unit)
Notre Dame -3.5 (Lean)
NC St -1.5 (Lean)

All 1H unders as well for me today.

 

[pressitup]

All 1H unders as well for me today.

it might be regressing to the mean.
what was the "trend/system" back in the day? faves before Christmas, Dogs after ? or vice versa?

 

[RoMoPDSho]

it might be regressing to the mean.
what was the "trend/system" back in the day? faves before Christmas, Dogs after ? or vice versa?

1H UNDER...

Today's first and last game went under in the 1H.

The three games in the middle all went over in the 1H and 2H.

System so far is 25-7-1 in the Bowl season. But, those 7 losses if you played 1H and 2H (2x 1H unit)...you would have lost 19 units. But, won 25. You would be better if you didn't double up the second half. 10 games didn't win the 1H, only 4 won the 2H double up.

So, it could be regressing.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

nice call on pitt :shake:

 

[HUNT]

Pappy happy new year

 

[PappyOSU]

1H UNDER...

Today's first and last game went under in the 1H.

The three games in the middle all went over in the 1H and 2H.

System so far is 25-7-1 in the Bowl season. But, those 7 losses if you played 1H and 2H (2x 1H unit)...you would have lost 19 units. But, won 25. You would be better if you didn't double up the second half. 10 games didn't win the 1H, only 4 won the 2H double up.

So, it could be regressing.

Thanks RoMo appreciate it. You can speak on this trend a bit better than I can and this is a big help.

What I know is that this is a trend that goes back quite a few years now specifically for bowl games. Something to be aware of going forward for the remainder of bowl season and the next coming years. Lots of supporting reasons we can get into to justify this 1H under rationale (emotion and interest, games around holidays, long travel period for team to be away from comfort zone, various events bowls plan for the players, new uncommon opponents, added preparation time for defensive staff, new faces on offense due to transfer portal and just plain sitting out, etc). Lots of factors lend itself to starting most of these bowl games slow and sloppy.

There are some major improvements coming for the composite system this off season (fyi) and 1H betting is going to be part of it to help capture value where it exists.

 

[PappyOSU]

CFB Composite system play Dec 31

Ohio St +5.5 (2 units)
Michigan -7.5 (1 unit)

OSU/UGA Over 62.5 (0.5 units)
UM/TCU Under 57 (0.5 units)

Also continue to fire on all 1H unders. Same amount every game and you will have more in your account at the end than what you started with. Keep the thinking here that simple until this trend evaporates

edit: I’m going to update official play on OSU from +6 to +5.5 since the last remaining book I see has now moved to that number and want to be accurate. I see some books moving to +5 too so the steam is coming in and get the bets in ASAP if you want to back OSU

Also If you want to buy a half point to get it to +6 and have some potential push insurance go ahead I’d recommend it in this case given the line movement