Fade the Road Weary Teams and Take the Rested Home Team
4/14/08
This system we are about to discuss has a 70% win percentage so it is definitely a game that you want to take a look at.
First, let's go over some things we know... As a team plays at home, they continue to perform better with each respective series. Meaning that the team would play better in their second consecutive home series than their first. And play better in their third consecutive home series than their first or their second. You will hardly see a team play a fourth consecutive home series unless they have a make-up game (which we count) as part of the mix.
It is also true in reverse for road teams. The more they play on the road, the worse they will be. All that hotel food, living out of a suitcase, missing their family, and travelling from series to series will get to you in a big way as the games progress.
This home-road phenomenon also tends to be more prominent earlier in the season as the bodies of these athletes have not yet gotten into a groove of travel, etc...
So as we look at this Yankees-Devil Rays game, we see the Devil Rays in their third home series playing the Yankees in their third road series. That alone does not spur our bet. We just need three more items to be true.
It is much better to take the rested home team than the tired, old, rusty Yankees that have just come off a series against the Red Sox, right?
4/14/08
This system we are about to discuss has a 70% win percentage so it is definitely a game that you want to take a look at.
First, let's go over some things we know... As a team plays at home, they continue to perform better with each respective series. Meaning that the team would play better in their second consecutive home series than their first. And play better in their third consecutive home series than their first or their second. You will hardly see a team play a fourth consecutive home series unless they have a make-up game (which we count) as part of the mix.
It is also true in reverse for road teams. The more they play on the road, the worse they will be. All that hotel food, living out of a suitcase, missing their family, and travelling from series to series will get to you in a big way as the games progress.
This home-road phenomenon also tends to be more prominent earlier in the season as the bodies of these athletes have not yet gotten into a groove of travel, etc...
So as we look at this Yankees-Devil Rays game, we see the Devil Rays in their third home series playing the Yankees in their third road series. That alone does not spur our bet. We just need three more items to be true.
- First game of the series.
- Home team coming off a win.
- Road team coming off a loss.
It is much better to take the rested home team than the tired, old, rusty Yankees that have just come off a series against the Red Sox, right?
