System Play [35-15, +15 Units]

[Blue_Chip]

Fade the Road Weary Teams and Take the Rested Home Team

4/14/08

This system we are about to discuss has a 70% win percentage so it is definitely a game that you want to take a look at.

First, let's go over some things we know... As a team plays at home, they continue to perform better with each respective series. Meaning that the team would play better in their second consecutive home series than their first. And play better in their third consecutive home series than their first or their second. You will hardly see a team play a fourth consecutive home series unless they have a make-up game (which we count) as part of the mix.

It is also true in reverse for road teams. The more they play on the road, the worse they will be. All that hotel food, living out of a suitcase, missing their family, and travelling from series to series will get to you in a big way as the games progress.

This home-road phenomenon also tends to be more prominent earlier in the season as the bodies of these athletes have not yet gotten into a groove of travel, etc...

So as we look at this Yankees-Devil Rays game, we see the Devil Rays in their third home series playing the Yankees in their third road series. That alone does not spur our bet. We just need three more items to be true.

1. First game of the series.
2. Home team coming off a win.
3. Road team coming off a loss.

All three of these scenarios are true and thus, combine to be a 35-15, +15 unit system across the past 8 full seasons. So for those of you subscribed to our picks package for $100 a month, you know that this game is valued as a Game of the Week for not only the system described above but because of the fact that the Yankees are favorites and have Kennedy on the mound. Strong value by fading them.

It is much better to take the rested home team than the tired, old, rusty Yankees that have just come off a series against the Red Sox, right?

 

[Blue_Chip]

^
The above analysis is taken from a site I came across a few months back that I enjoy reading. It offers plenty of useful info.

GL everyone

 

[RetroVK]

interesting angle.


thanks bluechip

 

[albyman32]

The thing that annoys me about a lot of baseball systems is only the record is posted and not the units. Baseball, more than any other sport, its all about units. A lot of those 15 losses could be high juice cuz its a home team.

 

[reNew Orleans]

i like TB today either way :shake:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

i like TB today either way :shake:

Me too.:smiley_acbe:

 

[Big Herm]

The thing that annoys me about a lot of baseball systems is only the record is posted and not the units. Baseball, more than any other sport, its all about units. A lot of those 15 losses could be high juice cuz its a home team.

Doesn't the title of the thread say +15 units in addition to another mention in the thread?

 

[Blue_Chip]

The thing that annoys me about a lot of baseball systems is only the record is posted and not the units. Baseball, more than any other sport, its all about units. A lot of those 15 losses could be high juice cuz its a home team.

... hence the "+15 units" following the stated record.

The answer to your question is: an average price tag of -133.

I can give the calculations if needed, but you are an engineer, so you are probably better with math than I am.

 

[Big Herm]

Me too.:smiley_acbe:

This guy would be an example of posting records and not units.

 

[Blue_Chip]

i like TB today either way

Me too.

It is nice to like a play not only from a technical standpoint, but also from a fundamental standpoint.

GL to us

 

[albyman32]

... hence the "+15 units" following the stated record.

The answer to your question is: an average price tag of -133.

I can give the calculations if needed, but you are an engineer, so you are probably better with math than I am.

Hence, I'm an idiot. I read the first part of 70% and wasnt paying attention to the rest.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Hence, I'm an idiot. I read the first part of 70% and wasnt paying attention to the rest.

Eh! It happens to the best of us. GL tonight

 

[Capt. Slap]

Ahhh...lots of nice info in here Blue

You even convinced me NOT to bet the Yankees and now I'm even thinking of taking my boys in DRay Blue

BOL

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread!

 

[Blue_Chip]

Ahhh...lots of nice info in here Blue

You even convinced me NOT to bet the Yankees and now I'm even thinking of taking my boys in DRay Blue

BOL

Good thread!

:cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

This really sucks!

I choose my spot carefully, and I am rewarded with NY hitting three homers in their first five batters.

I think a break from baseball may be in order.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

This guy would be an example of posting records and not units.

I've never been into the 'unit' thing. I'm an unorganized person, but I can tell you that I'm off to a good start $$$$$ wise. If you'd like me to denote which plays are big, medium and small, then I have no problem doing that if that's what you guys would like.

 

[Blue_Chip]

... if that's what you guys would like.

I would like to win a fucking bet

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I would like to win a fucking bet

Fucking Sonnannnnnstine isn't giving us a chance. Oh well.

 

[Capt. Slap]

Blue, luckily for you I changed my mind at the last second and still decided to bet on the Yankees...I don't know what it was but just a gut feeling


Unfortunately I only bet 75 to win 60...but still, if I hadn't...I would've killed you via Private Message

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Apr 14 6:59pm[/FONT]</td> <td align="left" width="32%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Baseball - Pending[/FONT]</td> <td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]75.00 to win 60.00[/FONT]</td> <td align="right" width="15%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial][/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Baseball - New York Yankees - moneyline (-125)
for the entire game held on Apr 14 at 6:10pm [pending]
I Kennedy -R must start and A Sonnanstine -R must start for action[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Blue_Chip]

Congrats Capt

Your gut feeling is alot better than this system.

How many times does a team open a game with three homers in their first five batters?

Fucking Sonnestine... I bet you could make money by blindly fading his ass this rest of the season

 

[Capt. Slap]

Congrats Capt

Your gut feeling is alot better than this system.

:shake: Game recognize Game

 

[SteelBucsFan]

i like that website too , to bad they are selling picks now ..They were free last few years..They breakdown each team and scenarios like no other i have found , good stuff

 

[ghostnmyhead]

o its not over yet..