Syracuse vs. Notre Dame: NCAAF Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Syracuse Orange vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Indiana
The spread posted by oddsmakers is moving in Notre Dame’s favor because bettors are enamored with the Irish.
Clearly, they are the stronger team, they are coming off what is perceived to be a respectable win against an offensively well-respected Tar Heel squad, and the almost winless visiting Orange are viewed with derision.
But none of these factors — the Irish being better than Syracuse, Notre Dame’s recent history, and Syracuse’s awful season — explain why we should bet on Notre Dame.
These factors only explain why oddsmakers are able to create what seems to me an inflated spread and still attract massive bettor attention in favor of the Irish.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs. Syracuse Run Defense
Nationally, Syracuse ranks 100th in run defense as measured by the average number of rushing yards that it allows per game — 201.8.
The Orange rank so low in the category despite playing in the ACC where they typically do not play against teams with the offensive line and running back strength that Notre Dame possesses.
Notre Dame is one of three teams in the ACC that averages over 200 rushing yards per game.
Teams that rank below the Fighting Irish in rushing offense still want to run the ball against Syracuse over and over again.
Recently, for example, Louisville attempted 45 rushes against the Irish even after its top running back opted out of the season.
Since teams know to run on the Orange, Syracuse allows the 99th-lowest percentage of running plays in the nation.
Brian Kelly
Under head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame wants to be physical and it wants to run when it can.
This year, the Fighting Irish own the 24th-highest run-play percentage in the nation.
So expect Notre Dame to run a lot against Syracuse, which means clock will be drained while significantly fewer yards are gained than in an average pass play.
Trend
Because Notre Dame will run a lot on Saturday, it won’t need to pass much.
It is very difficult to cover such a large spread without showing much offensive balance.
This year, the Irish are 1-3 ATS when they pass for 201 or fewer yards.
The one cover came in an early-season matchup against South Florida where the Irish benefitted from a tremendous number of drives that started past their own 40 yard line.
So they had fantastic field position plus a special teams touchdown.
Otherwise, they plowed in grinding contests like against Louisville and later in the season accomplished what was necessary against lowly Georgia Tech.
Like Syracuse, those are teams that opponents want to and can easily run on.
In keeping the ball on the ground, Notre Dame will do what is necessary to win.
So my description of Syracuse’s bad run defense contributes to my explanation of why the Orange will cover the spread.
Rex Culpepper
Defensively, Notre Dame could have a let-down after surprising a lot of people with its strong performance against Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish will need to take Syracuse’s offense seriously.
On offense, the Orange are led by quarterback Rex Culpepper. After having his starting position threatened, he had one of his best games in an Orange uniform.
Culpepper will benefit from multiple wide receiver formations with which the Orange offense can spread out Notre Dame’s defense.
He’ll operate out of shotgun and fire quick throws underneath to open targets. He may roll to his left or to his right in order to hit his best option.
So many different targets will be available and different ones present the capacity to score quickly.
Last week, Nykeim Johnson flashed his speed as he burned his opposing cornerback for a 60-yard touchdown reception.
But Taj Harris is Syracuse’s top wide receiver. The 2020 preseason All-ACC third-teamer is earning his honors as Syracuse’s go-to wide receiver.
Harris ably creates separation from the opposing cornerback near the sidelines and elsewhere. He’ll use his speed to run crisp routes across the middle of the field.
He’s also fast and his shiftiness makes him a dangerous guy after the catch.
Notre Dame’s season-long issues with limiting big passing plays will not simply evaporate after a strong game especially given the underrated quality of Syracuse’s weapons in the passing game.
The Verdict
Notre Dame is going to plow its way to a victory without taking the risks in its passing game that would help it cover the large spread.
Defensively, the Irish will come to Earth a bit as Syracuse surprises with its bevy of passing targets flourishing under Culpepper’s leadership.
Best Bet: Orange +33.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Syracuse Orange vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Indiana
The spread posted by oddsmakers is moving in Notre Dame’s favor because bettors are enamored with the Irish.
Clearly, they are the stronger team, they are coming off what is perceived to be a respectable win against an offensively well-respected Tar Heel squad, and the almost winless visiting Orange are viewed with derision.
But none of these factors — the Irish being better than Syracuse, Notre Dame’s recent history, and Syracuse’s awful season — explain why we should bet on Notre Dame.
These factors only explain why oddsmakers are able to create what seems to me an inflated spread and still attract massive bettor attention in favor of the Irish.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs. Syracuse Run Defense
Nationally, Syracuse ranks 100th in run defense as measured by the average number of rushing yards that it allows per game — 201.8.
The Orange rank so low in the category despite playing in the ACC where they typically do not play against teams with the offensive line and running back strength that Notre Dame possesses.
Notre Dame is one of three teams in the ACC that averages over 200 rushing yards per game.
Teams that rank below the Fighting Irish in rushing offense still want to run the ball against Syracuse over and over again.
Recently, for example, Louisville attempted 45 rushes against the Irish even after its top running back opted out of the season.
Since teams know to run on the Orange, Syracuse allows the 99th-lowest percentage of running plays in the nation.
Brian Kelly
Under head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame wants to be physical and it wants to run when it can.
This year, the Fighting Irish own the 24th-highest run-play percentage in the nation.
So expect Notre Dame to run a lot against Syracuse, which means clock will be drained while significantly fewer yards are gained than in an average pass play.
Trend
Because Notre Dame will run a lot on Saturday, it won’t need to pass much.
It is very difficult to cover such a large spread without showing much offensive balance.
This year, the Irish are 1-3 ATS when they pass for 201 or fewer yards.
The one cover came in an early-season matchup against South Florida where the Irish benefitted from a tremendous number of drives that started past their own 40 yard line.
So they had fantastic field position plus a special teams touchdown.
Otherwise, they plowed in grinding contests like against Louisville and later in the season accomplished what was necessary against lowly Georgia Tech.
Like Syracuse, those are teams that opponents want to and can easily run on.
In keeping the ball on the ground, Notre Dame will do what is necessary to win.
So my description of Syracuse’s bad run defense contributes to my explanation of why the Orange will cover the spread.
Rex Culpepper
Defensively, Notre Dame could have a let-down after surprising a lot of people with its strong performance against Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish will need to take Syracuse’s offense seriously.
On offense, the Orange are led by quarterback Rex Culpepper. After having his starting position threatened, he had one of his best games in an Orange uniform.
Culpepper will benefit from multiple wide receiver formations with which the Orange offense can spread out Notre Dame’s defense.
He’ll operate out of shotgun and fire quick throws underneath to open targets. He may roll to his left or to his right in order to hit his best option.
So many different targets will be available and different ones present the capacity to score quickly.
Last week, Nykeim Johnson flashed his speed as he burned his opposing cornerback for a 60-yard touchdown reception.
But Taj Harris is Syracuse’s top wide receiver. The 2020 preseason All-ACC third-teamer is earning his honors as Syracuse’s go-to wide receiver.
Harris ably creates separation from the opposing cornerback near the sidelines and elsewhere. He’ll use his speed to run crisp routes across the middle of the field.
He’s also fast and his shiftiness makes him a dangerous guy after the catch.
Notre Dame’s season-long issues with limiting big passing plays will not simply evaporate after a strong game especially given the underrated quality of Syracuse’s weapons in the passing game.
The Verdict
Notre Dame is going to plow its way to a victory without taking the risks in its passing game that would help it cover the large spread.
Defensively, the Irish will come to Earth a bit as Syracuse surprises with its bevy of passing targets flourishing under Culpepper’s leadership.
Best Bet: Orange +33.5 at -107 with BetOnline
