Thursday And Friday ACC College Football Parlay
Syracuse vs NC State
Thursday, October 10 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Carter-Finley Stadium
Oddsmakers have NC State listed as 4.5-point favorites, despite recent offensive woes. Against West Virginia, NC State produced 27 points and followed up that paltry production with a 13-point egg against Florida State.
The 27 points were almost a season-best for West Virginia while the 13 points that Florida State allowed was its season-best effort, despite also having played against two Group of Five teams.
To try and resolve their offensive woes, the Wolfpack want to switch things up. Transfer quarterback Bailey Hockman, a former four-star recruit who transferred from Florida State, will get the start after gaining experience with the offense last week.
An efficient run game with decent explosiveness will support Hockman. The Pack rank second in the ACC in rush success rate with Zonovan Knight and Jordan Houston, each of whom average well over five YPC. They can have a big day against an Orange rush defense that ranks 112th in opposing YPC.
While it's true that the Pack's offensive line will have to shuffle positions after its starting right tackle succumbed to injury and Syracuse’s defensive ends form the strength of its defense, the Orange defensive line has underachieved, not playing like it "should" on paper. Above all, hyped-up defensive end Alton Robinson has only accrued sacks against Holy Cross and Liberty.
Passing will be immensely more difficult for Syracuse. First of all, Tommy DeVito represents a stark regression from last year’s quarterback, Eric Dungey.
He produced a nice-looking stat-line against Maryland. But in reality, he led all of two successful drives in what was a blowout loss. Besides being an inefficient offensive leader, he’s also turnover-prone as he’s been intercepted five times in five games.
A problem with DeVito is his lack of mobility. He isn’t the runner that Dungey was. As a result, he’s helpless behind an offensive line that ranks 117th in sack rate allowed despite facing a lot of soft competition.
On the other side, NC State is coming off an eight-sack performance against Florida State. Expect many exotic blitzes that will leave Syracuse just as clueless against them as it was in its bowl game.
Although both teams face injuries in their secondary, I give the edge to NC State’s defense, which has been one of the more efficient defenses in the ACC. Nationally, the Pack rank 28th in yards per play allowed.
Besides an improving pass rush, the Wolfpack rank 31st in opportunity rate, which measures a run defense’s effectivity, after limiting the Seminoles to 1.7 YPC.
On the other side, Syracuse has allowed a combined total of 104 points to its only Power Five teams faced, Maryland and Clemson. Besides an underachieving defensive line, Syracuse’s linebackers have often been clueless in their positioning and play recognition.
I like NC State to win at home, where it’s won 10 of its past 11 games. It has a much more reliable defense.
Virginia vs Miami
Friday, October 11 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium
An often overlooked reality is that offensive production begins in the trenches. A team cannot run the ball if its running back cannot reach the line of scrimmage nor can a team pass if the quarterback is constantly pressured before he can make a decision.
This game will be a defense-first slugfest because both teams have lack quality offensive line play.
Virginia’s o-line ranks 66th in opportunity rate while its 98th ranking in stuff rate indicates that Cavalier running backs frequently get tackled for no gain or for a loss. In terms of pass protection, it ranks 106th in sack rate allowed.
Miami’s defense, which gave up 42 points last week to Virginia Tech, will get a boost from Manny Diaz’s decision to involve himself more heavily in the defense. Diaz was the team’s defensive coordinator before this year and he knows how to re-establish a defense that ranked fifth in opposing yards per game last year and still ranks 23rd in the category this year.
Putting pressure and wreaking havoc are strong points of the Hurricanes. Defensively, they rank fifth in stuff rate and 39th in sack rate, which means that they are strong where Virginia is weak on offense. The Hurricanes thrive at stuffing opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage and they excel at getting to the quarterback.
UVA’s defense can do much of the same to Miami. It’s true that Virginia was gashed in its last game by Notre Dame’s rush attack. But the Irish boast a big, strong, experienced, and overall top-notch offensive line with multiple future NFL players.
Miami’s offensive line is nowhere near the same as it is extremely young and mistake-prone. Miami’s run protection ranks 93rd in opportunity rate and its pass protection ranks 127th in sack rate allowed.
The defense for Virginia is led by linebackers Zane Zandier and Jordan Mack. The latter has six sacks this season. Virginia should be extra aggressive defensively with a sound secondary that will have no problem with Miami’s question mark at quarterback.
Best Bet: Parlay at +230 odds: NC State ML at -185 odds and Virginia-Miami Under 45 at -105 odds with 5Dimes
Syracuse vs NC State
Thursday, October 10 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Carter-Finley Stadium
Oddsmakers have NC State listed as 4.5-point favorites, despite recent offensive woes. Against West Virginia, NC State produced 27 points and followed up that paltry production with a 13-point egg against Florida State.
The 27 points were almost a season-best for West Virginia while the 13 points that Florida State allowed was its season-best effort, despite also having played against two Group of Five teams.
To try and resolve their offensive woes, the Wolfpack want to switch things up. Transfer quarterback Bailey Hockman, a former four-star recruit who transferred from Florida State, will get the start after gaining experience with the offense last week.
An efficient run game with decent explosiveness will support Hockman. The Pack rank second in the ACC in rush success rate with Zonovan Knight and Jordan Houston, each of whom average well over five YPC. They can have a big day against an Orange rush defense that ranks 112th in opposing YPC.
While it's true that the Pack's offensive line will have to shuffle positions after its starting right tackle succumbed to injury and Syracuse’s defensive ends form the strength of its defense, the Orange defensive line has underachieved, not playing like it "should" on paper. Above all, hyped-up defensive end Alton Robinson has only accrued sacks against Holy Cross and Liberty.
Passing will be immensely more difficult for Syracuse. First of all, Tommy DeVito represents a stark regression from last year’s quarterback, Eric Dungey.
He produced a nice-looking stat-line against Maryland. But in reality, he led all of two successful drives in what was a blowout loss. Besides being an inefficient offensive leader, he’s also turnover-prone as he’s been intercepted five times in five games.
A problem with DeVito is his lack of mobility. He isn’t the runner that Dungey was. As a result, he’s helpless behind an offensive line that ranks 117th in sack rate allowed despite facing a lot of soft competition.
On the other side, NC State is coming off an eight-sack performance against Florida State. Expect many exotic blitzes that will leave Syracuse just as clueless against them as it was in its bowl game.
Although both teams face injuries in their secondary, I give the edge to NC State’s defense, which has been one of the more efficient defenses in the ACC. Nationally, the Pack rank 28th in yards per play allowed.
Besides an improving pass rush, the Wolfpack rank 31st in opportunity rate, which measures a run defense’s effectivity, after limiting the Seminoles to 1.7 YPC.
On the other side, Syracuse has allowed a combined total of 104 points to its only Power Five teams faced, Maryland and Clemson. Besides an underachieving defensive line, Syracuse’s linebackers have often been clueless in their positioning and play recognition.
I like NC State to win at home, where it’s won 10 of its past 11 games. It has a much more reliable defense.
Virginia vs Miami
Friday, October 11 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium
An often overlooked reality is that offensive production begins in the trenches. A team cannot run the ball if its running back cannot reach the line of scrimmage nor can a team pass if the quarterback is constantly pressured before he can make a decision.
This game will be a defense-first slugfest because both teams have lack quality offensive line play.
Virginia’s o-line ranks 66th in opportunity rate while its 98th ranking in stuff rate indicates that Cavalier running backs frequently get tackled for no gain or for a loss. In terms of pass protection, it ranks 106th in sack rate allowed.
Miami’s defense, which gave up 42 points last week to Virginia Tech, will get a boost from Manny Diaz’s decision to involve himself more heavily in the defense. Diaz was the team’s defensive coordinator before this year and he knows how to re-establish a defense that ranked fifth in opposing yards per game last year and still ranks 23rd in the category this year.
Putting pressure and wreaking havoc are strong points of the Hurricanes. Defensively, they rank fifth in stuff rate and 39th in sack rate, which means that they are strong where Virginia is weak on offense. The Hurricanes thrive at stuffing opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage and they excel at getting to the quarterback.
UVA’s defense can do much of the same to Miami. It’s true that Virginia was gashed in its last game by Notre Dame’s rush attack. But the Irish boast a big, strong, experienced, and overall top-notch offensive line with multiple future NFL players.
Miami’s offensive line is nowhere near the same as it is extremely young and mistake-prone. Miami’s run protection ranks 93rd in opportunity rate and its pass protection ranks 127th in sack rate allowed.
The defense for Virginia is led by linebackers Zane Zandier and Jordan Mack. The latter has six sacks this season. Virginia should be extra aggressive defensively with a sound secondary that will have no problem with Miami’s question mark at quarterback.
Best Bet: Parlay at +230 odds: NC State ML at -185 odds and Virginia-Miami Under 45 at -105 odds with 5Dimes
