Survivor '21

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm sure many of you are in survivor leagues, so let's get a discussion going. Last season I picked Indy in week 1, only to have them be the only team to lose to Jax. So I'm clearly unlucky, need all the help I can get. No DD dogs in week 1 and a fair amount of road favorites, makes me nervous. Who do we like?
 
I'm not even in a survivor league this year but the "safe play" would probably be TB but if going out on a limb & just to use them something is telling me MIN.
 
I thought bout trying to be clever and going w a team like panthers or falcons but then I told myself I really dunno what they are or what their opponents are yet, I should have chances w them later once I figure them out. So I took what looked like the most obvious sure thing week 1,, tampa thu night, I dont think dallas has a snowballs chance in hell of winning that game. I understand ppl taking niners but I don’t like taking road teams and just like w tampa I’m sure there be plenty of other spots to take niners later. Also, while I expect lions kinda suck I don’t know that for sure yet, they could have a solid run game, Campbell might have them playing hard. I feel like I know what Dallas is and that a team who qb hasn’t took a snap, missing best lineman, a terrible coach who was acting for hard knocks all summer. And I know what tampa and Tom are, a team that gonna be prepared to come out and kick cowboys ass!!
 
SF feels too much like Indy last year week 1 to me. I like TB. Any thoughts on LAR hosting the Bears?
 
gps_3 said:
SF feels too much like Indy last year week 1 to me. I like TB. Any thoughts on LAR hosting the Bears?
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i think Rams are also incredibly safe long as Dalton leading the bears offense. I do worry Rams offense takes awhile to get into rhythm with a new qb and no preseason reps. Think it take them a half to get going but the defense should handle their business against the ginger water pistol behind a terrible Oline. I jus went tampa cause i trust they on same page right from the jump while Rams will prob look better later on in the season. Of course tampa will prob get better as they go as Tom’s teams tend to do. Just think Cowboys way behind in terms of preparation. Dunno that niners have any issues but I much rather wait on them till we see the qb situation work itself out. Be plenty of spots to take them later (of course same can be said bout all 3, I rather save them all but also dont want to get knocked out trying to be cute!), niners also on road, I don’t see any reason to take a road team this early!
 
Browns for me this week. I gotta get through 3-4 weeks then I start worrying about the schedule.

Packers looked so bad I don’t want to touch them.
 
I’m taking GB. They can’t play much worse and really don’t see them losing to Detroit at home in prime time on MNF.
 
I'm gonna hold off on Tampa for awhile. Looks like plenty of chances to use them later.

I'm on GB. Scary perhaps, after last week, but I expect a big bounce back.

Jags, Jets, Falcons right now look like the favorable matchups.

Denver at Jville will be popular this week. But I think I'll save Denver for next week vs the Jets at home.
 
gps_3 said:
True, but I think I'd rather hold on to Tampa Bay for now. I've got Browns this week. I went ahead and picked all 17 weeks just to kind of have a plan, feel like this is a good time to use the Brownies
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This is how my strategy has always been in survivors and then I rarely even make it to week 2
 
gps_3 said:
True, but I think I'd rather hold on to Tampa Bay for now. I've got Browns this week. I went ahead and picked all 17 weeks just to kind of have a plan, feel like this is a good time to use the Brownies
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I also plan the full season out and I also have the same team this week.
 
Seems like a tougher week this week for some reason. I have Broncos, but wondering if there are better plays on the board? Panthers? I hesitate to take a road team, especially on Thursday night, but the Texans with Mills can't win can they? I don't have Carolina mapped out any other week, though maybe I should. Arizona @ Jax?
 
gps_3 said:
Seems like a tougher week this week for some reason. I have Broncos, but wondering if there are better plays on the board? Panthers? I hesitate to take a road team, especially on Thursday night, but the Texans with Mills can't win can they? I don't have Carolina mapped out any other week, though maybe I should. Arizona @ Jax?
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Those are the three choices

The early bet count on Zona side, teaser and ml is outright scary.
 
Does Vegas enter the equation with Brissett starting for Dolphins?
 
gps_3 said:
Does Vegas enter the equation with Brissett starting for Dolphins?
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I upgrade Miami with Brissett

Denver is clearly the favorite in the house, not sure where you'd ever be more comfy playing them than here. All three of yours probably win but I'm no fan of taking big road favorites in general. Don't think this early in the season you try to go rogue, learning Survivor still but almost makes sense to be smart the first 6 weeks or so and sitck around to give yourself a chance to even use your capping skills. Never have gotten that far.
 
KJ said:
I upgrade Miami with Brissett

Denver is clearly the favorite in the house, not sure where you'd ever be more comfy playing them than here. All three of yours probably win but I'm no fan of taking big road favorites in general. Don't think this early in the season you try to go rogue, learning Survivor still but almost makes sense to be smart the first 6 weeks or so and sitck around to give yourself a chance to even use your capping skills. Never have gotten that far.
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That seems to be the conventional wisdom for sure. I did see some fantasy "guru" on Twitter saying to win a survivor league, you have to be willing to lose in the first few weeks, meaning to take more chances early on with marginal teams to leave the better teams late. I disagree for a couple of reasons: 1, doesn't matter if you still have a team if you're no longer in the field, and 2, there will be chances later on that aren't apparent right now, because of injuries or a team being much better/worse than originally thought. And I think I'd rather roll the dice on a team like NYG or WFT or whomever in week 16 than week 3
 
gps_3 said:
Does Vegas enter the equation with Brissett starting for Dolphins?
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Huge letdown spot for the Raiders with the Chargers in week 4. The Raiders of the past couple seasons lose this game. I’m not sure if this team is different. I’m going with the Broncos. The Jets don’t seem to have a win in their sights anytime soon.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Huge letdown spot for the Raiders with the Chargers in week 4. The Raiders of the past couple seasons lose this game. I’m not sure if this team is different. I’m going with the Broncos. The Jets don’t seem to have a win in their sights anytime soon.
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Agreed. I like Miami as a teaser play this week, though I think you can wait. I think this line only goes up, which would allow you to cross to 10.5 with the Fish.
 
Looking at Buffalo this week, though also considering Cincy, GB, Saints, and Titans. Only reason for not picking Bills would to be to save them for later
 
Getting into the good part now. Hard to avoid road favorites and/or division games. Got Vikings, Bucs, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys and Ravens on the radar
 
I went with Vikings. First real scare of the season. Survive and advance...
 
Who we like this week? Colts are really the only team I have available that makes sense. Texans don't seem to be laying down. Panthers? Steelers against Geno Smith? Bengals on the road? Bucs? Tough week
 
Despite every analyst in the sports world hyping Fields & gushing over his supposed progression as a QB, I believe the Packers are a solid pick. The Bears won last week despite Fields not because of him. In 3 starts, I believe he's 29-57 for 388 yards, 1TD & 1 INT, 25 rushing yards & been sacked 12 times. He's protected the ball pretty well, but other than that, he's been below par across the board. These numbers include games against the less than formidable defenses of the Lions & Raiders. Rams are probably the top pick this week though. Would normally jump on the Colts, but after their heart got ripped out last night, not sure they can be trusted.
 
Funky week indeed. Next week there are several options. Not as many this week.

Indy. Do you trust them off that loss and they still have the Jets and Jags at home.

Rams. Road spot vs banged up Giants and they still look to have plenty of opportunities ahead.

Tampa. I'm not a fan of road Thursday games for survivor. Looks like better spots later for them.

KC. Feels like a must win game for them.

Pittsburgh- Perfect time to play Seattle with Geno. Do you get that game from Cripplesberger two weeks in a row?
 
CPA-hole said:
Funky week indeed. Next week there are several options. Not as many this week.

Indy. Do you trust them off that loss and they still have the Jets and Jags at home.

Rams. Road spot vs banged up Giants and they still look to have plenty of opportunities ahead.

Tampa. I'm not a fan of road Thursday games for survivor. Looks like better spots later for them.

KC. Feels like a must win game for them.

Pittsburgh- Perfect time to play Seattle with Geno. Do you get that game from Cripplesberger two weeks in a row?
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Agree with all of this. I already used Rams, so they're out. Adding Packers to the potential list. I assume the Colts will be top pick by far, and we haven't had a huge upset yet (I don't think). Maybe a good time to go contrarian and hope for the best?
 
Just realized the Mia/Jax game is in London, not Florida. Still don't think I trust the Dolphins
 
Im gulp'ing and taking Pitt.

Only other team I have that's non division, and at home, is Baltimore. But I'm not taking them vs chargers, and on a short week.
 
Taking Pitt as well I think. I had the Colts penciled in here before the season started but they are on a short week and as previously mentioned..it feels like a good time to be contrarian with the fav.
 
Rams will be popular. Giants are a mess.

I can’t trust wentz to have 2 good games in a row and can’t trust indy shows up after having their heart ripped out last week.

Gb should work but if it comes down to a kick??

Talking myself into kc. Their d blows, but wash d was supposed to be great and they’ve been awful and kc way more weapons in a shootout.
 
I'm between Steelers and Packers. Don't feel great about either honestly
 
I think y’all being just maybe a tad dramatic with this not trusting colts after “getting their hearts ripped out”, thought my woman had started posting here. Lol. Not saying I trust the colts but I’m pretty confident ya’ll making it sound more devastating than they feel bout it.
 
I stuck with colts even tho I hate Wentz. I think they better than their record, they had a really tough early schedule amd been banged up. Still think they gonna get back into the division race, to do so they gotta win this game. The weeks the play jags/jets at home I have other teams circled so this seems like best spot to take them for me. It would be cool to have them playing better 1st and yea they have like 36-40% the plays in biggest one I’m in. Think they safe tho. Only other I would consider is KC, I think they strong but rather save them for later and when I suspect they playing better (not that I think they lose). Pretty happy with teams I’ve been able to use so far/good teams saving for later, rather wait on Rams as I think they def have easier spots than this one. Gl everyone
 
I bailed on Colts, picked Packers, made it through. Initially put Cards down, but may want to think about saving them. Pats and Bucs are the other obvious ones I have available. Don't trust Miami based on travel alone. 9ers could be a consideration
 
I had pitt... with what I have left, its zona or pack.... and like you said, the only choice is do I want to save zona... I feel like I shouldn't be thinking about that at the moment
 
Burned Tamps Bay last week, but at least I didn't have to sweat it out. With what I have left, Zona (no Adams for GB), Bengals, and KC are my top 3. Could be talked into Chargers and Seahawks (maybe). What are y'all thinking?
 
Saving Bills at all costs. Bengals/Chiefs is the decision this week IMO. Chiefs easiest game left is Denver at home and that's about it. Bengals also not many more great spots. With how bad KC looks right now and Wilson out for Jets I think it's Bengals this week.
 
TB-GB-DEN-CIN-MIN-IND-NE used, still have BUF, Rams, KC, AZ, Clippers
Would like to save Bills like everyone else. Not touching KC until they right the ship (if they right the ship). AZ seems like a risk not worth taking this early in the game. Clippers no thanks, think Pats are a live dog this week. Which leaves the Rams. I don't see a realistic chance of using them downstream until week 13 so why not burn them now.
 
Rozay456 said:
I’m between NO and BAL this week. Any insights would be appreciated.
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Ravens off an ass-whipping and a bye...

Gotta like them to be prepared...

NOLA should win, but this feels like one where with a new QB we could see struggles... atlanta obviously awful but still feels like a closer game at least early into 2h...
 
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