Tito
The Salty Dog
Playoffs - 14-10 (+9.95u)
Not a great CC weekend for me, but still up for the playoffs. Been so busy and trying to get through props....
My thoughts on SB 50....
Initially seemed like everything was about the Panthers and how it wasn't going to be a close SB this year. So I was trying to make a case for the Broncos bc it seemed so automatic for myself and everyone to play the Panthers and just count your money. However it seems like on the radio and on the boards it's all Broncos now and the talking heads are just saying its Peyton and hes magic and the Panthers are good, but Peyton. So I've been going back and forth on this.
The case against the Panthers...they are not at home (i know, neither are the Broncos) and they get a lot from their home field. Also need to look at the last two opponents for the Panthers. First the Seahawks were playing their second early game of the playoffs and were just beaten up from a brutal frigid game the week before. Seemed like they came in a bit asleep and before they knew what hit them they were up big. They got it together and almost came back. In the CC, they had the luxury of facing probably the biggest pressure failure at the Qb position I've ever seen. Palmer was completely scared and tight and just was horrible. You could see in his eyes and everyone around him, he was useless and couldn't pass. I don;t think it was his finger. Go back and look at his eyes and look at his coaches. He just choked. So the Panthers had some fortunate situations to get to this game. Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, not 100%. Not sure how effective they will be. Especially unfortunate for Davis who I love and is a great story and is so imp to the Panthers D. Peyton with rest and time to prepare really helps the Broncs chances too. As does Wade Phillips with time to plan as well and how to handle Cam.
For the Panthers...They actually have an offense. And a very good defense. Secondary beyond Norman is suspect, but you have Peyton who is physically not bale to take advantage of it or the deep play vulnerability of the secondary. Broncos have a great D, but the offense really hurts their chances. I love Peyton and his ability to read D's and get them in the right set up based on what he sees, but his physical limitations are really looming large. D Thomas, I assume will not be a factor in this game w Norman on him. This D can cause serious issues for a weak O like this. And as good as the D of the Broncs is, they got to face a severely depleted Steeler team missing their two best offensive weapons and then a very one dimensional Pats team with a weak O-line. They may be able to slow the Panthers, but I think Cam has reached another level of any other Qb. I think the Panthers can just pound away and move the ball enough to get into short yardage situations, where they can't really be stopped. You also have an ex-factor in Ted Ginn on ST. You also have a huge discrepancy in TO differential in favor of the Panthers. Broncs one of the worst in giving it away, while Panthers are at the top at taking it. And Panthers are very good at holding on to the ball.
I could go on, but gotta cut it short....basically I think the Panthers win. But I think the Denver D and Peyton and his O can do enough to keep them close. I could see a blow out by the Panthers, but I doubt it - more likely the Broncos keep this somewhat close. I could see them covering the 6, but I think we will see a 6-10 point Panther victory. I'm waiting on this number to climb down more and more. If it can get to @3 I'll buy it down and take the Panthers for double the teaser. I have the Broncs in a teaser I think will hit. So I'll be waiting on the line and will add the Panthers as I think/hope the lone drops more.
Carolina -3 (-158) -4u-
Broncos +13/OVER 38 (-130) -2u-
Props:
Virgil Green Receiving Yards OVER 7.5 (-115) -1u-
Cody Latimer Receiving Yards OVER 7.5 (-105) -1u-
Corey Brown Receptions OVER 2.5 (-160) -2u-
CJ Anderson Receptions OVER 1.5 (-180) -2u-
Mike Tolbert Rushing Yards OVER 9.5 -2u-
Jerricho Cotchery Receptions OVER 2.5 (+105) -1u-
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions OVER 5.5 (+100) -1u-
Field Goals Attempted OVER 4 (+125) -1u-
Will be adding, if I have time...enjoy the day guys! :shake:
Not a great CC weekend for me, but still up for the playoffs. Been so busy and trying to get through props....
My thoughts on SB 50....
Initially seemed like everything was about the Panthers and how it wasn't going to be a close SB this year. So I was trying to make a case for the Broncos bc it seemed so automatic for myself and everyone to play the Panthers and just count your money. However it seems like on the radio and on the boards it's all Broncos now and the talking heads are just saying its Peyton and hes magic and the Panthers are good, but Peyton. So I've been going back and forth on this.
The case against the Panthers...they are not at home (i know, neither are the Broncos) and they get a lot from their home field. Also need to look at the last two opponents for the Panthers. First the Seahawks were playing their second early game of the playoffs and were just beaten up from a brutal frigid game the week before. Seemed like they came in a bit asleep and before they knew what hit them they were up big. They got it together and almost came back. In the CC, they had the luxury of facing probably the biggest pressure failure at the Qb position I've ever seen. Palmer was completely scared and tight and just was horrible. You could see in his eyes and everyone around him, he was useless and couldn't pass. I don;t think it was his finger. Go back and look at his eyes and look at his coaches. He just choked. So the Panthers had some fortunate situations to get to this game. Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, not 100%. Not sure how effective they will be. Especially unfortunate for Davis who I love and is a great story and is so imp to the Panthers D. Peyton with rest and time to prepare really helps the Broncs chances too. As does Wade Phillips with time to plan as well and how to handle Cam.
For the Panthers...They actually have an offense. And a very good defense. Secondary beyond Norman is suspect, but you have Peyton who is physically not bale to take advantage of it or the deep play vulnerability of the secondary. Broncos have a great D, but the offense really hurts their chances. I love Peyton and his ability to read D's and get them in the right set up based on what he sees, but his physical limitations are really looming large. D Thomas, I assume will not be a factor in this game w Norman on him. This D can cause serious issues for a weak O like this. And as good as the D of the Broncs is, they got to face a severely depleted Steeler team missing their two best offensive weapons and then a very one dimensional Pats team with a weak O-line. They may be able to slow the Panthers, but I think Cam has reached another level of any other Qb. I think the Panthers can just pound away and move the ball enough to get into short yardage situations, where they can't really be stopped. You also have an ex-factor in Ted Ginn on ST. You also have a huge discrepancy in TO differential in favor of the Panthers. Broncs one of the worst in giving it away, while Panthers are at the top at taking it. And Panthers are very good at holding on to the ball.
I could go on, but gotta cut it short....basically I think the Panthers win. But I think the Denver D and Peyton and his O can do enough to keep them close. I could see a blow out by the Panthers, but I doubt it - more likely the Broncos keep this somewhat close. I could see them covering the 6, but I think we will see a 6-10 point Panther victory. I'm waiting on this number to climb down more and more. If it can get to @3 I'll buy it down and take the Panthers for double the teaser. I have the Broncs in a teaser I think will hit. So I'll be waiting on the line and will add the Panthers as I think/hope the lone drops more.
Carolina -3 (-158) -4u-
Broncos +13/OVER 38 (-130) -2u-
Props:
Virgil Green Receiving Yards OVER 7.5 (-115) -1u-
Cody Latimer Receiving Yards OVER 7.5 (-105) -1u-
Corey Brown Receptions OVER 2.5 (-160) -2u-
CJ Anderson Receptions OVER 1.5 (-180) -2u-
Mike Tolbert Rushing Yards OVER 9.5 -2u-
Jerricho Cotchery Receptions OVER 2.5 (+105) -1u-
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions OVER 5.5 (+100) -1u-
Field Goals Attempted OVER 4 (+125) -1u-
Will be adding, if I have time...enjoy the day guys! :shake:
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