Super Bowl

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Back and forth I go , back and forth , back and forth ....

All boils down to the fact I feel the line is to soft . With the caution Hines Ward is banged up and so is Big Ben . However the line came out soft and alot of value chatter that I dont buy . Lets not forget how many were willing to lay the TEN SPOT with Carolina who is vastily inferior to Pittsburgh . Which was a nice trip for Zona as well .

Anyway I just think Pitt's tough schedule and ARI soft schedule come into play here. If Pitt can shackle Larry Fitzgerald then you have to wonder how ZONA is moving the ball consistently . Cards will move the ball but they have been turnover prone as well as settled for FGs in the red zone far to many times IMO. Pitt will probably just wear them down at some point . Pitt's game plan should be simply keep the Cards defense on the field and the offense OFF it ....

ARI had revenge for games in their last 2 playoff wins BUT now Pitt is the team with payback. What better time then the SB ??

I really dont have much interest in talking about this game at this point . Simply think after looking this up and down Pitt should be no less then -8.5 . Its a neutral field but home field mant alot moreto ARIZONA IMO so the fact they are traveling is more crucial IMO .....Big thing for them early was moving the balland avoiding 3rd downs and later avoiding 3rd and longs until really the 4th Quarter...

Plays :

Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Teaser : Pitt -0.5 and Under 52.5 (120)
1st Half Under 23.5 (200)
1st Quarter Cards +0.5 -120 (120)
2nd Quarter Pitt ??? (120)

Big Ben Over 230.5 -125 (120)
Willie Parker Over 75.5 Yards -170 (200)
Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards -135 (120)
Attempts over 19.5 -180 (120)

Thats all so far...:cheers:







 
Couldn't put out an 8.5, not in a SB, but I see what you're saying.

I think 7/7.5 is the right number for these two teams right now. I don't think you could put this line at DD unless they were in Pitt, then you'd have to make it 10.5/11.

Six is a good price, I'll see where it ends up in the AM, but I may try to middle it with -6 and +7.5.

One prop I like tomorrow, Heath Miller over 3.5 receptions. Last week Brent Celek had a career day, Heath Miller's better and Big Ben likes to check down to him. I figure they go to him six maybe seven times tomorrow. I think he can catch four of those.
 
I'm torn either way and will likely just bet the coin toss :tiphat:

My issue with the credit given to Pitts schedule is that they went 2-4 vs playoff teams and just happened to face the 2 teams they beat in the regular season, AGAIN in the playoffs. Not that I believe the Cards were better in that aspect, given that they had the 0-3 goose egg during the regular season against eventual playoff teams. I just think too many people are giving the Steelers props because they are "battle tested".

That being said, GL on Sunday:shake:
 
I like Ariz but want your thoughts on this:

Ariz will not run with success and will likely be behind early.. My guess.

I think all the Ariz throwing and receiving props are light.. I say this because I believe Steelers pass defense is overrated (as it relates to these props) based on the number of non dynamic offenses they faced.. If Ariz goes down they won't go down without firing and they have way too many weapons for several of these "over" props not to hit IMO..

Thinking of putting a unit on several of them-- Warner over compl, over attempts, over yards, Boldin, Breaston Fitz al over their catches and yards..

My thoughts are Ariz will get near 400 yards offense and I can't see much more than 50 via the run..

Your thoughts on that line of thinking if you have a minute..
 
SportsNut said:
Back and forth I go , back and forth , back and forth ....

All boils down to the fact I feel the line is to soft . With the caution Hines Ward is banged up and so is Big Ben . However the line came out soft and alot of value chatter that I dont buy . Lets not forget how many were willing to lay the TEN SPOT with Carolina who is vastily inferior to Pittsburgh . Which was a nice trip for Zona as well .

Anyway I just think Pitt's tough schedule and ARI soft schedule come into play here. If Pitt can shackle Larry Fitzgerald then you have to wonder how ZONA is moving the ball consistently . Cards will move the ball but they have been turnover prone as well as settled for FGs in the red zone far to many times IMO. Pitt will probably just wear them down at some point . Pitt's game plan should be simply keep the Cards defense on the field and the offense OFF it ....

ARI had revenge for games in their last 2 playoff wins BUT now Pitt is the team with payback. What better time then the SB ??

I really dont have much interest in talking about this game at this point . Simply think after looking this up and down Pitt should be no less then -8.5 . Its a neutral field but home field mant alot moreto ARIZONA IMO so the fact they are traveling is more crucial IMO .....Big thing for them early was moving the balland avoiding 3rd downs and later avoiding 3rd and longs until really the 4th Quarter...

Plays :

Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Teaser : Pitt -0.5 and Under 52.5 (120)
1st Half Under 23.5 (200)
1st Quarter Cards +0.5 -120 (120)
2nd Quarter Pitt ??? (120)

Big Ben Over 230.5 -125 (120)
Willie Parker Over 75.5 Yards -170 (200)
Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards -135 (120)
Attempts over 19.5 -180 (120)

Thats all so far...:cheers:
Click to expand...


SN: I agree with every one of your plays & will likely be on most. I honestly believe Ben will have a huge game for the Steelers, see you at the cashiers window!
 
SN...Good Luck today. I'm on Pitt with you. It's been a great season. Thank you for all of your inputs. :shake: :cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
I like Ariz but want your thoughts on this:

Ariz will not run with success and will likely be behind early.. My guess.

I think all the Ariz throwing and receiving props are light.. I say this because I believe Steelers pass defense is overrated (as it relates to these props) based on the number of non dynamic offenses they faced.. If Ariz goes down they won't go down without firing and they have way too many weapons for several of these "over" props not to hit IMO..

Thinking of putting a unit on several of them-- Warner over compl, over attempts, over yards, Boldin, Breaston Fitz al over their catches and yards..

My thoughts are Ariz will get near 400 yards offense and I can't see much more than 50 via the run..

Your thoughts on that line of thinking if you have a minute..
Click to expand...

I strongly agree with the point you make about the PITT pass defense being overrated . The fact Rivers hit Vincent Jackson for that deep ball in the 1st Quarter sort of should be the bolded arrow pointing to it .

Here is what I think though , Pitt has been great at these long , long grinding type drives this season and really thats the best defense vs ARI offense . Simply keep them off the field and out of rhythm . Now dont let them get in sync and I think if they are looking more at the 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 8 each drive the offense will and really has looked alot different . They have avoided those early in the playoffs in the 1st halves but thinking that will change ..

I dont think if that happens they can get 400 net yards of offense BUT this is the Super Bowl (an event just as much as a game) . Also think NET yards the Cards have been in the 360 range so far which also might make 400 a stretch here theoritically ..

One thing I really wanted to look into was Warner vs the blitz . We know how great he is BUT does his stats include times he fumbled when blitzed ?

I expect more of a slow start to the game in general despite the fact both teams have played more interesting 1st halves really then 2nds.....

Actually think that Heath Miller should have a good day as far as Props go but trying to find that go to go for ARI thinking at looking at Hightower , Boldin , Breaston and Urban props more then anything for them....

:shake:
 
totally agree with you SN

on pitt in a variety of different ways, got a couple ML parlays from earlier in the week, and about to lay the 6 @ -118 as well

kind of like arizona to score first prop, which obviously opens the door up for live betting if they do, unfortuantely i will be out and not be able to get a computer. but i think, at least early on, there may be some good opps for live bettors that lean pitt for the game. GL bro lets end the season on a bang! bases are right around the corner
 
Great stuff guys and Good Luck to everyone. I will try and reply to the posts but dont have much time before the game starts .....

Looking at some more PROPS still and will probably play teh 1st QUARTER UNDER:cheers:

 
:shake:
CapTwo said:
totally agree with you SN

on pitt in a variety of different ways, got a couple ML parlays from earlier in the week, and about to lay the 6 @ -118 as well

kind of like arizona to score first prop, which obviously opens the door up for live betting if they do, unfortuantely i will be out and not be able to get a computer. but i think, at least early on, there may be some good opps for live bettors that lean pitt for the game. GL bro lets end the season on a bang! bases are right around the corner
Click to expand...
Thinking about :

Team to Score First ? Arizona Or

team to Scores First wins the game ? NO

Super Bowl MVP ? Santonio Holmes +1700

Shortest FG made 25.5 yards ? UNDER -130

1st TD scored in game ? Arrington , Breaston or Hightower ...or Santnio Holmes , Nate Washington


Scribbled these down earlier in the week.....from the other thread labeled SB props
 
SportsNut said:
:shake:Thinking about :

Team to Score First ? Arizona Or ---- like it--

team to Scores First wins the game ? NO ---- like it, goes along with the first one since we lean pitt

Super Bowl MVP ? Santonio Holmes +1700 --- no opinion hate mvp props but was looking at polamalu and hines ward

Shortest FG made 25.5 yards ? UNDER -130 --- like it a lot due to pitts red zone D. theres going to be a big red zone stand at SOME point in this game

1st TD scored in game ? Arrington , Breaston or Hightower ...or Santnio Holmes , Nate Washington -- no opinion


Scribbled these down earlier in the week.....from the other thread labeled SB props
Click to expand...


:cheers: glad to see we leanin the same way in this one. see a similar game as you. arizona gets ball first, well-coached and well-orchestrated first drive results in a FG, then pitt answers and never looks back, and totally controls the 2H w/ running the football and letting their D do it for them
 
Some PROPS that I thought were interesting :

Exact Points Arizona 17 (10/1) played for 40 and for Pitt 27 (8/1) played for 40

Margin of victory PITT 7 to 12pts (4.25 to 1 ) played for 40

TT Under 20 points Zona +105 played for 40

Longest TD in the game 44.5 yards Over -115 (40)

FG's Under 3.5 -150 (80)

Zona 3rd Conversions Under 4.5 total +140 (40)

Zona converts a 4th Down -110 YES (80)

MVP:( for 40)
Holmes (15/1)
Parker ( 6.5 /1)

Passing Attempts ;
Warner Over 37.5 -160 (40)

Recieving Yards :
Edge Over 7.5 -105 (80)
Hightower Over 8.5 -125 (160)
Fitz Under 98.5 +115 (120)
Boldin Over 66.5 yards -125 (160)
Boldin Over 5 receptions -170 (40)
Urban Over 19.5 yards -115 (120)
Over 2 receptions -140 (80)
Holmes Over 55.5 -160 (40) Over 59.5 -120 (40)
Over 3 receptions Holmes -185 (120)
Over 44.5 -135 Miller (80)
Over 34.5 Washington -140 (120)

Rushing Yards :
Hightower Over 21.5 -110 (80)
mewlede moore Over 13.5 -160 (80)

Rackers Under 7 points +120 (80)
More incompletuions Warner -160 (80)








TeeDub saw this at BODOG ...
Net yards for Arizona 321.5 Over +105 / Under -135:cheers:
 
Plays :

Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Steelers -6 -120 (400)
Steelers ML -200 (200)
Teaser : Pitt -0.5 and Under 52.5 (120)
1st Half Under 23.5 (120) Lowered this as well vigged out some
1st Quarter Under 9.5 -105 (80)
1st Quarter Cards +0.5 -120 (120) CHANGED MY MIND VIGGED OUT OF IT
2nd Quarter Pitt -0.5 -130 (120)
3rd Quarter Cards +0.5 (40)
4th Quarter Cards +0.5 +100 (120)
1st Half Pitt -4 +110 (280)

Big Ben Over 230.5 -125 (120)
Willie Parker Over 75.5 Yards -170 (200)
Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards -135 (120)
Attempts over 19.5 -180 (120)

ALL DONE:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Plays :

Steelers -6 -120 (400)-480
Steelers -6 -120 (400)-480
Steelers ML -200 (200) +200
Teaser : Pitt -0.5 and Under 52.5 (120) +120
1st Half Under 23.5 (120) Lowered this as well vigged out some -132 (+vig)
1st Quarter Under 9.5 -105 (80) +80
1st Quarter Cards +0.5 -120 (120) CHANGED MY MIND VIGGED OUT OF IT-(24)
2nd Quarter Pitt -0.5 -130 (120) +120
3rd Quarter Cards +0.5 (40) -44
4th Quarter Cards +0.5 +100 (120) +120
1st Half Pitt -4 +110 (280) +280

Big Ben Over 230.5 -125 (120) +120
Willie Parker Over 75.5 Yards -170 (200) -340
Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards -135 (120) -162
Attempts over 19.5 -180 (120) +120

ALL DONE:cheers:
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Some PROPS that I thought were interesting :

Exact Points Arizona 17 (10/1) played for 40 and for Pitt 27 (8/1) played for 40
+280

Margin of victory PITT 7 to 12pts (4.25 to 1 ) played for 40
-40

TT Under 20 points Zona +105 played for 40
-40

Longest TD in the game 44.5 yards Over -115 (40)
+40

FG's Under 3.5 -150 (80)
+80

Zona 3rd Conversions Under 4.5 total +140 (40)
+56

Zona converts a 4th Down -110 YES (80) -88


MVP:( for 40)
Holmes (15/1) +600
Parker ( 6.5 /1) -40


Passing Attempts ;
Warner Over 37.5 -160 (40) +40


Recieving Yards :
Edge Over 7.5 -105 (80) +80
Hightower Over 8.5 -125 (160) +160
Fitz Under 98.5 +115 (120) -120
Boldin Over 66.5 yards -125 (160) +160
Boldin Over 5 receptions -170 (40)+40
Urban Over 19.5 yards -115 (120) -138
Over 2 receptions -140 (80) -112
Holmes Over 55.5 -160 (40) Over 59.5 -120 (40)+80
Over 3 receptions Holmes -185 (120) +120
Over 44.5 -135 Miller (80) +80
Over 34.5 Washington -140 (120) -168


Rushing Yards :
Hightower Over 21.5 -110 (80) -88
mewlede moore Over 13.5 -160 (80) -128

Rackers Under 7 points +120 (80) +96
More incompletuions Warner -160 (80) +80









TeeDub saw this at BODOG ...
Net yards for Arizona 321.5 Over +105 / Under -135:cheers:
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
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