***super Bowl Plays***

[TroyStacks]

Playing Colts -6 (-130) for now and will look for a middle at kickoff. If I see a line hovering at +9/9.5 area I will pay equal juice for +10.5 and hope I can middle it. I see this being decided by 7 but no more than 10 due to the fact the bears defense will keep Indy in check for most of the game but Peyton and Indy will prevail eventually.

Grossman is good for 2 fuckups which will lead to 6-10 points as Indy will not score TDs at will. Peyton will throw and early pick as well and it seems teams return his pics so lets say 7 point off TOs.

Indy has too many weapons ultimetly for that great defense to stop. Clark will have a huge game and so will Wayne. Addai has been solid as well as Rhodes and teh Chicago defense has looked suceptible to the run and dump passes across the middle.

I'll go out on a limb and predict the final score this early and I say it will be:

Colts 24
Bearsssss 16

 

[Capt. Slap]

how do you middle a -130 line?

 

[HUNT]

I think the line stays at 7 and 7.5 throughout.

 

[TroyStacks]

how do you middle a -130 line?

umm once the line moves to a higher number i will buy it up to -130 the other way. hope for a 7 point win only if it stays i think i am in good shape

 

[rolub]

not speaking for the Captain, but I think the point is middles are sought for the minimal risk at a high payout. when you're talking (-110) lines and lower, the percentages work out where it's worth the risk. But at -130, despite a larger spread for the middle, I'm not sure if there is "value" in that play, statistically speaking.

nonetheless, good luck. :cheers:

 

[abcs]

Yea if you could have gotten 6 at -110 and then 8 or 9 at the same juice then there is a middle opportunity. As far as stats go the value is shot when u pay that much juice on both sides. But Good Luck man.. I thought the line would reach 8 but it looks like 7.5

 

[TroyStacks]

true but i still like colts -6 for sure

 

[Terpman92]

Troy- If Peyton plays with same enthusiam as he did yesterday covering 6.5 should not be a problem. Good luck to you.

 

[RJ Esq]

Troy--

I don't bet NFL, so take the opinion for what it's worth. I think 7 and 7.5 are rediculous lines for this game. I'll probably be throwing a shits and giggles bet on Chicago +7.

Only way Chicago doesn't cover IMO is if Grossman sucks horribly. Even when he sucks, they're still pretty good.

 

[Mags]

Yeah, good number to play them on as I see it being 7 and most likely 7x come kick off.

 

[spanishshark]

I have a really good feeling about the Colts winning it all. My question is by how much. Im going to toss some numbers around but its looking like anything under 6 1/2 is a good number, maybe even 7. After that I might have to start looking at the Bears for a :moose: Still undecided:hairout:

 

[TroyStacks]

good health to everyone today. was totally wrong about everyone pounding the colts however i am still pleased with my wager and feel good about winning. should be agreat game if anything else, but i will be sick if grossman ends up winning and manning is left to be shitted on. anyways enjoy the game, get fat and drunk and drive fast and take chances going home.....just playing watchout for DUI checkpoints as always guys. piece...........of ass GO COLTS

 

[spanishshark]

Good luck Troy. I ended up taking the Colts - 6 1/2. They will definitely win by atleast a TD. Best of luck to us. :cheers:

 

[Pepsiman]

Troy,
on the other end here. Colts getting pounded and the line is 7.5 with my local and it could be 8 by gametime, alot of Colts backers

 

[TroyStacks]

I Think There Is Even Money Coming In I See Alot For Bears+7 Gh

 

[spanishshark]

Colts getting pounded? Last I looked the sides were almost even with the Bears having the most but the Money was 82% on the Bears !!!!!

 

[spanishshark]

oops.....79% on Bears now

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]02/04/2007
18:25 ET[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Indianapolis
Chicago[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]-7.0
48.5​

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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right>[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]-7.0
48.0 [/FONT]</TD><TD width="2%"> </TD><TD align=right width="35%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]-245
+205[/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]-6.5
47.5[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]-7.0
47.5[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]50%
50%[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]21%
79%[/FONT]​

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matchups[/FONT]​

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[Terpman92]

Troy- I ended it going with the Bears and the Under. Good luck to you bro!

 

[BlitzBandit]

looks like we are both on this one...

gl bud.