Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LVII Parlay (+288): Chiefs to Make the Most of Matchup Opportunities
Best Bet: Parlay Chiefs ML at +103 & Under 51 at -110 at +288 odds with BetOnline
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 22, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Philadelphia's "Vaunted" Defense
Much of the circulating Eagle hype has been generated by disingenuous talking-heads on TV giving stats without sufficient context.
It is true that Philadelphia owns the number one defense. But who have the Eagles played?
While they played the Vikings, 49ers, and Jaguars, they did not "really" play those teams.
They faced Minnesota on Monday Night Football, and it is well-known how atrocious Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins plays in the primetime slot.
Then, they played a 49er team that lost its starting quarterback to injury.
Josh Johnson is a journeyman quarterback with a career 70.6 passer rating.
With him under center, Philly could simply focus on assaulting the line of scrimmage.
As for the Jaguars, they faced them before the team's end-of-season transformation into a playoff-caliber team, although Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence still struggles against the league's better pass defenses.
Besides those three teams, Philly faced two teams with top-10 offenses, Detroit and Dallas.
Detroit scored 35 points. Dallas played Philly once with its starting quarterback and scored 34 points.
The Eagles played a lot of soft competition but also gave up 33 points to Green Bay.
These results show that Philadelphia's defense is unreliable when it finally encounters an offense that can run and pass well.
Philadelphia's Overhyped Pass Rush
Much is made of Philadelphia's pass rush in view of its sack numbers.
But the Eagles did a lot of stat-padding against the league's worst pass protection units.
Many of their games with six or more sacks came against teams like the Giants, Bears, and Commanders that rank bottom-10 in sacks allowed per game.
In terms of pass pressure rate, Philadelphia's pass rush quality is nearly identical to Kansas City's.
But the Chiefs also have the edge in terms of avoiding sacks.
Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts, while attempting just over 200 fewer passes than his Chief counterpart, has taken 12 more sacks.
On paper, the Chiefs do have a matchup edge against the weak link of Kansas City's offensive line, its right tackle.
But the Chiefs can do a lot to mitigate this weakness.
Thus, when they beat the 49ers 44-23, star edge rusher Nick Bosa's impact on the game was insubstantial. He tallied one sack.
Philly Corners vs. Chief Pass Attack
Philadelphia's outside corners merit respect, but the Chiefs will want to attack the middle of the field with unstoppable tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster.
The Eagles ranked around average against tight ends, yet Kelce ranked among the NFL's best wide receivers and tight ends in receptions and receiving yards.
Kelce's prowess in the middle of the field will exploit an Eagle pass defense whose high ranking has nothing to do with its ability to cover tight ends.
Chief Running Backs
When Philly's pass rush does appear dangerous, Mahomes will use check-down passes to offset the threat posed by Philly's pass rush by getting rid of the ball quickly to his weapons.
Two Chief running backs rank top-11 among running backs in receiving touchdowns, illustrating Mahomes' growth into a quarterback who ably checks it down.
Running the ball, Isiah Pacheco flexes a combination of high-end speed and physicality.
He'll thrive against an Eagle defense that ranks 23rdin rush success rate.
While Philly has accumulated excellent tackle-for-loss stats, Kansas City's misdirection game -- featuring traps, counters, and the like -- will actually punish the Eagles for their aggressiveness.
Supported by Kansas City's experienced and mobile o-line, the lateral running of physical freak, wide receiver Kadarius Toney will serve the same end.
Jalen Hurts' Injury
Whereas Mahomes has been putting up good numbers while recovering form his ankle sprain, Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts is clearly affected by his injury because his throwing shoulder is hurt.
As evident in the NFC Championship Game, he lacks his previous ability to reach deep targets.
Chief Cornerbacks
Hurts' injury to his throwing shoulder undercuts the threat posed by star wide receiver AJ Brown.
But even if Hurts were healthy, Kansas City's ability to limit Bengal star quarterback Joe Burrow to a 70.2 passer rating was impressive.
The Chiefs were able to double-team and contain Cincy's star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, generally limiting his production and typically limiting him to shorter gains.
As long as cornerback Trent McDuffie has been healthy, Kansas City's pass defense reliably limits opposing pass productivity.
The team's top cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed, has already cleared concussion protocol.
KC Pass Rush
Spearheaded by Frank Clark and Chris Jones and given Hurts' vulnerability to being sacked, Kansas City's pass rush will be stronger than Philly's.
The Chiefs apply pressure at a high rate despite blitzing at a lower rate this year.
They benefit from having veteran safeties who can disguise things well in the secondary, encouraging the cornerbacks to be more aggressive and helping the team achieve coverage sacks in case the former Pro Bowler Clark and first-team All-Pro selection Jones don't reach the quarterback.
The Verdict
With two of the best pass rushes and two strong rush attacks going up against teams with solid cornerback play, this game will feature a lot of short passes and runs that will keep the clock ticking.
Kansas City's elite third-down and red zone success rates, largely a product of clever play-design from superior coaches that prevents the post-snap stress to which Hurts will often succumb against Kansas City's clever defensive coordinator, will be an underrated factor in their ability to sustain drives.
Kelce in the middle and Pacheco will be x-factors on offense for whom Philadelphia will appear to lack equivalents on offense given Hurts' throwing shoulder affecting his deep ball ability, given the Eagles' relative lack of ability to circumvent their opponent's strong outside cornerback play, and given Philly's lower-ranked rush defense.
Obviously, KC will also have the best quarterback on the field.
For the above reasons, expect a Chief win in a game that stays under the high posted total.
Best Bet: Parlay Chiefs ML at +103 & Under 51 at -110 at +288 odds with BetOnline
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 22, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Philadelphia's "Vaunted" Defense
Much of the circulating Eagle hype has been generated by disingenuous talking-heads on TV giving stats without sufficient context.
It is true that Philadelphia owns the number one defense. But who have the Eagles played?
While they played the Vikings, 49ers, and Jaguars, they did not "really" play those teams.
They faced Minnesota on Monday Night Football, and it is well-known how atrocious Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins plays in the primetime slot.
Then, they played a 49er team that lost its starting quarterback to injury.
Josh Johnson is a journeyman quarterback with a career 70.6 passer rating.
With him under center, Philly could simply focus on assaulting the line of scrimmage.
As for the Jaguars, they faced them before the team's end-of-season transformation into a playoff-caliber team, although Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence still struggles against the league's better pass defenses.
Besides those three teams, Philly faced two teams with top-10 offenses, Detroit and Dallas.
Detroit scored 35 points. Dallas played Philly once with its starting quarterback and scored 34 points.
The Eagles played a lot of soft competition but also gave up 33 points to Green Bay.
These results show that Philadelphia's defense is unreliable when it finally encounters an offense that can run and pass well.
Philadelphia's Overhyped Pass Rush
Much is made of Philadelphia's pass rush in view of its sack numbers.
But the Eagles did a lot of stat-padding against the league's worst pass protection units.
Many of their games with six or more sacks came against teams like the Giants, Bears, and Commanders that rank bottom-10 in sacks allowed per game.
In terms of pass pressure rate, Philadelphia's pass rush quality is nearly identical to Kansas City's.
But the Chiefs also have the edge in terms of avoiding sacks.
Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts, while attempting just over 200 fewer passes than his Chief counterpart, has taken 12 more sacks.
On paper, the Chiefs do have a matchup edge against the weak link of Kansas City's offensive line, its right tackle.
But the Chiefs can do a lot to mitigate this weakness.
Thus, when they beat the 49ers 44-23, star edge rusher Nick Bosa's impact on the game was insubstantial. He tallied one sack.
Philly Corners vs. Chief Pass Attack
Philadelphia's outside corners merit respect, but the Chiefs will want to attack the middle of the field with unstoppable tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster.
The Eagles ranked around average against tight ends, yet Kelce ranked among the NFL's best wide receivers and tight ends in receptions and receiving yards.
Kelce's prowess in the middle of the field will exploit an Eagle pass defense whose high ranking has nothing to do with its ability to cover tight ends.
Chief Running Backs
When Philly's pass rush does appear dangerous, Mahomes will use check-down passes to offset the threat posed by Philly's pass rush by getting rid of the ball quickly to his weapons.
Two Chief running backs rank top-11 among running backs in receiving touchdowns, illustrating Mahomes' growth into a quarterback who ably checks it down.
Running the ball, Isiah Pacheco flexes a combination of high-end speed and physicality.
He'll thrive against an Eagle defense that ranks 23rdin rush success rate.
While Philly has accumulated excellent tackle-for-loss stats, Kansas City's misdirection game -- featuring traps, counters, and the like -- will actually punish the Eagles for their aggressiveness.
Supported by Kansas City's experienced and mobile o-line, the lateral running of physical freak, wide receiver Kadarius Toney will serve the same end.
Jalen Hurts' Injury
Whereas Mahomes has been putting up good numbers while recovering form his ankle sprain, Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts is clearly affected by his injury because his throwing shoulder is hurt.
As evident in the NFC Championship Game, he lacks his previous ability to reach deep targets.
Chief Cornerbacks
Hurts' injury to his throwing shoulder undercuts the threat posed by star wide receiver AJ Brown.
But even if Hurts were healthy, Kansas City's ability to limit Bengal star quarterback Joe Burrow to a 70.2 passer rating was impressive.
The Chiefs were able to double-team and contain Cincy's star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, generally limiting his production and typically limiting him to shorter gains.
As long as cornerback Trent McDuffie has been healthy, Kansas City's pass defense reliably limits opposing pass productivity.
The team's top cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed, has already cleared concussion protocol.
KC Pass Rush
Spearheaded by Frank Clark and Chris Jones and given Hurts' vulnerability to being sacked, Kansas City's pass rush will be stronger than Philly's.
The Chiefs apply pressure at a high rate despite blitzing at a lower rate this year.
They benefit from having veteran safeties who can disguise things well in the secondary, encouraging the cornerbacks to be more aggressive and helping the team achieve coverage sacks in case the former Pro Bowler Clark and first-team All-Pro selection Jones don't reach the quarterback.
The Verdict
With two of the best pass rushes and two strong rush attacks going up against teams with solid cornerback play, this game will feature a lot of short passes and runs that will keep the clock ticking.
Kansas City's elite third-down and red zone success rates, largely a product of clever play-design from superior coaches that prevents the post-snap stress to which Hurts will often succumb against Kansas City's clever defensive coordinator, will be an underrated factor in their ability to sustain drives.
Kelce in the middle and Pacheco will be x-factors on offense for whom Philadelphia will appear to lack equivalents on offense given Hurts' throwing shoulder affecting his deep ball ability, given the Eagles' relative lack of ability to circumvent their opponent's strong outside cornerback play, and given Philly's lower-ranked rush defense.
Obviously, KC will also have the best quarterback on the field.
For the above reasons, expect a Chief win in a game that stays under the high posted total.
