Super Bowl Opening # Colts -6

wow this will be pounded to 7 or 8 by kickoff.. This will be some huge one sided action
 
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Am I the only one who thinks the Colts don't warrant this HUGE early action. I think there's no win they dont win SU. But are they THAT big of a guarenteed winner?
 
My main concern with the line is that if the casinos wanted even action this line would be at -7.5. 6 or 6.5 makes me think that the smart play is Chicago. NFL is not my bread winner though so take it for what it's worth.
 
Cruzer- I am with you on that! Bears+7.5 or better, it looks like it may go much higher, I'll wait it out.
 
Man theres 2 weeks.. the public will drive up the numbre check prior superbowls
 
abcs said:
Man theres 2 weeks.. the public will drive up the numbre check prior superbowls
Click to expand...

That's what I'm talking about. The Colts, at home, squeek by a "watered down Pats team" (thanks sportsnut) and they are already crowned the Super Bowl champs. I like the Bears on grass more than the Colts also to take reduce their team speed advantage.
 
I have to say I am shocked that Indy is TD favorites. Ask yourself what would would NE vs Chicago be? Do we need to be reminded that this matchup already occurred?(Think it was NE -4 at home) With NE squeaking by Chi at home ...I would say NE would be -3.5 at most vs Chicago in Miami which means I dont really see reason why Indy would be anything more then -4.5. Chicago has one position you worry about QB...Rex Grossman who has made plays when he has to. I have to think Chi defense gives Indy problems though...and Indy is not a complete defense. They beat two below average offenses and NE I would call above average with Chi falling somewhere in bewteen. This should be a great Super Bowl...

So Bears look very attractive to me...

Thanks Mr21 suprised that quick comments actually left a mark on people. With regards to the line and equal action...bottomline is more money will be Indy(peyton manning) and the equation is simply not the split of Colts / Bears money cause the books want to turn a profit period. You dont know what the books are gonna need persay on that day...you dont know there teaser action , there total action , prop bets and so on.....worry the books are setting you up is just a waste of time IMO.....

BOL all...
 
i might have a decent middle opportunity

Bet Jamamica had a line of AFC -5 1/2 NFC +5 1/2 before the games were played yesterday

i took AFC -5 1/2 so do you guys think the line will go up or down from 7 or should i jump on Bears +7 now
 
Terpman92 said:
Cruzer- I am with you on that! Bears+7.5 or better, it looks like it may go much higher, I'll wait it out.
Click to expand...

Terp, I'd even go Bears +61/2 or better. Anything over 6 1/2 I have to go with the Bears. Thats what im looking at right now but I want to see where all the sharp money is gonna go by this week-end. :shake:
 
Colts Fan

Alright, I am a Colts Fan. Bear fans are ridculous, from their Bear Down song, to the super bowl shuffle, and the Cubs mentality.

Bottomline Colts will Win!!

Bears 3-5 SU and ATS against the AFC the last 2 years.

Grossman can throw the deep ball, but the Colts do not give the deep ball. Bears will keep the game close throughout, if they can get a defensive score or special team score. They depend on a score from one those teams to get their wins. The Colts Run Defense will step up again. I like the Colts chances going against RON TURNER as the OC for the BEARS nothing too much to worry about. BEARS D will be tuned up like they were against the SAINTS.

I have noticed many people feel the Colts are going to win the game, but many think its going to be close. People pounding Colts ML, but people hitting the BEARS plus the points.

I will lay the 7.
 
Quoting what Chi does versus the AFC serves what purpose? They played the AFC 4 times and Chi was somewhat inconsistent at times. They smoked Buffalo , they shutout the Jets in NJ , they lost a tough game by 4 in NE and the Miami game where they were taken by suprise. No one thought Miami had it in them to go to Chi and win. However the Phins defense is what won that game and Indy cannot duplicate that effort. They simply were overconfident thinking Miami stunk. Look at what Miami did latein Indy with a 3rd string QB. I dont think Chi play vs AFC teams show anything negative. What did Indy do vs Buffalo?? They beat NE in two tough games and Chi almost won playing its 3rd straight week in row on the road. How did Indy perform in NJ ?? These teams are equal with the differnce being in QB play. Is Manning 7 points better then Grossman? I dont think so and I dont think he did anything extraordinary in his comeback. h ehit open WR's versus a tired defense. Now I am also the guy who rode Indy all 3 playoff games...not many thought they would win in Balt but I thought that line was a joke and I think this one is a joke as well.

What is impressive about the Colts play on the road? There biggest 2 wins were 9 in Balt and 7 in NE. Indy run defense had more holes in Baltimore then it did at home. Ravens had 17c for 71 yards and those guys have nothing on Benson and Jones. Indy's OL I dont think played very well until NE tired. Addai did NOT pass block at all.

If they can get a defensive score? How bad were they on kic coverage against Hobbs where now you face Hester? Defensive score? How many picks has manning throw in the playoffs vs lesser defenses ? Two things happened vs NE. The first you saw you can still rattle Manning at this point in his career. The second is DUngys play calling. The run with Rhodes on 3rd and 5 down three was AWFUL. That was retarded in fact. You have Vinateri kicking and the extra yards dont matter to him. If you cant trust Manning to get a 1st down who can you trust? Lovie Smith is aggressive and I love his faith in short yardage downs.

If Grossman plays well or like he has past 2 weeks I think Chi is very bit as good as NE. Which obviously playewd with Indy twice...

I like the points and see no reason to play the Colts ML....my opinion is this line should be -4. Bears just get no respect and they are about as dangerous as DOG as you can have.

The one thing scaring me is Tank Johnsons status. I wish you LUCk with the Indy -7 play. This should be a great Super Bowl.
 
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Joe baby fire away!!

I think I know what your gonna say but you have to realize we dont see eye to eye because I dont think you take that I ocnsider your thought process in my decision making. Your looking at strictly the linesmakers role. Which is great and I do as well. However I talking always about the discrepancy created by public perception. If the Books aregetting equal action at -7 if i say it should be 5 then doesnt mean the books are doing a bad job the market itself has the line wrong....The market sustains numbers not the books. ...fire away anyway but I think I know your gonna say the Colts cant be cheaper cause the books will have a big Colts position...which I agree but only means the market price is wrong....
 
That's why I said you didn't want me to chime in, because you basically know what I'm going to say. But since you're close I'll instead attack it both ways, from the way I'd set it, and from the way you attack it.

First, you're right, I'm going to say that -7 is the right number. Were this game in the middle of the year, that's not what it would be. But SBs are all about key numbers to maximize betting. Really, there are three different NFL seasons as far as betting. There's pre-season, which people tend to attack like the regular season, which is a mistake. Then there's the regular season. And finally there's the SB.

As you know, the SB isn't about equal action, but rather it's about volume. It's about getting every man, woman and kid with a fake ID who walks into the casino to stop by the sports book whether they wanted to or not and drop $20, $50, or $100 into the pot. So it's always going to be a key number, that's what makes it easily accessible.

With that said, you only had two realistic choices, -3 and -7 and I was one of those who said before Sunday that no matter who went from the AFC it would be -7. It has to be, if those are your choices, which I could go more into, but you already get that.

Now, from your perspective, I agree with you.

You're getting an Indy team outside of the dome, laying a TD, something which the way they finished the regular season suggests is far too much. If this game were anything but the SB, you'd probably make the Colts a -4.5, maybe even a -3.5 and that's only because it would be outside on a neutral field. At Soldier Field this game would be right around a PK. So, yes, there is value in the Bears.

However, even though this may be a bad line, the problem with that is that bad lines get covered too sometimes. And, situationally, I think this game sets up very well for the Colts.

Will I be laying the seven, no. I have the ML, and if I take anything it will be a small piece of 6.5 and/or maybe some of the Bears at 7.5 to try for the middle.

But, like I said, though I agree with you where the value lies, that value is only enough to get me not to lay the points, not enough to get me to go the other way simply because of what I see in both Indy and Chicago.
 
See now thats a great job of having an understanding of eachothers points . You may be shocked but I agree with every single point you made down to the letter. Especially how the bad lines still cover and how it sets up well for Indy.

I just think Chicago is underrated. During the season on a neutral field I would think the line is more like Colts -1.5 or -2. I think you made a great point about whole numbers...fair value due to the event is probably -4.5 IMO but hey if you can still have more Indy action at -7 then you did wonderful as a linesmaker.

Personally I never take Dogs unless I think they have serious chance of winning SU. Generally indy won 3 games w/o playing well and I think they need the rest more cause CHI ended on cruise control. I think Da Bears D got its swagger back and we saw how deadly the Bears run game can be. Grossman is either Sexy Rexy or Ugly Betty and no inbewteen. Part of me feels NE was so lucky in the 1st H thanks to huge 4th down conversion plays , the fumble they picked up and scored and the awful pick 6. I just dont know how they gave Samuel any credit. He was standing right there what was Manning thinking? He and Marvin have been out of sync all playoffs which is so odd. I said before the playoffs people underestimate the valeu of Dallas Clark to the offense and Bob Sanders on defense. Well now CHI wont underestimate them either.

One thing that really scares me besides a Grossman stank performance is what you said about how this sets up for Indy. They have played okay in the playoffs but really havent impressed but won 3 games. Will they save there best performance for the Super Bowl? I dont mean purposely save but will it be the game where it all gels? I dont believe anything was really accomplished defeating NE last week. They won but not convincingly and needed a NE meltdown.

Generally we have only discovered that there are no great teams in Pro Football...a few good ones but just no USC/TExas type battle.

The value will lie in the winner.......BOL
 
One last thing that no one has mentioned....Colts defense is based on speed. So the switch to grass is probably what hurts them in road games more then anything......
 
Excellent points by both of you. SportsNut, I agree with you on the defensive speed of the Colts playing on grass but on the other hand, I dont think its the Bears offense that worry the Colts as much as their defense. I think as long as Dungy keeps the play calling balanced and the offensive line steps it up a couple notches, Manning should be able to do his thing. Although I do see the Colts finally winning a Super Bowl, I dont think its going to be by 7 points. I'll take the Bears and the points at the current line. If it drops below 6 1/2 then I'll play on the Colts. Thats just a lean right now. Still undecided. Good luck gentlemen.
 
I have to agree with you Majent. Its become just laughable with all this talk about the public.Public this , public that , sharp this , sharp that...Enough already...this line like you siad probably trades bewteen 6 and 7...not sure it even makes 7.5 if ever till gameday...

How is Line that is already high going to go higher and move off a key number? People seem to forgot sharps are part of the betting public.

Your past data is correct. Books make there money on props anyway on this day. People seem to think the books make money on every single bet they offer....
 
You're right on the number not moving, though on game day it will move a little bit. That Raiders line crashed and burned before game time if I remember right. A lot of that had to do with the Barrett Robbins thing, either that or books were overloaded on TB for two weeks and tried to get back somewhere close to even all at once by sharply dropping the line.
 
7.5 will not happen again imo, 5.5 is more likely from here on out imo, but both I believe are just not going to happen. It will bounce back and forth between 6.5 and 7 for the next two weeks, possibly one or two extrem lines, but you must be lucky or have alot of time on your hands to get them. The side is split on this one, I am sure with these lines there will be tons of middle and scalp action to just confuse the situation even further. 49 will come up occasionally esspecially closer to gametime, maybe even 49.5 on gameday.

I think that after this weekend we will get a much better picture as to what type of action we can expect next week.
 
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