Super Bowl LIX MVP Odds Preview and Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome
The Odds (per Bet365)
Patrick Mahomes +110
Saquon Barkley +260
Jalen Hurts +350
Travis Kelce +1600
Xavier Worthy +2500
A.J. Brown +3000
Chris Jones +5000
DeVonta Smith +5000
Kareem Hunt +5000
Don't Bet The Favorites
It feels like a truism to say that, if Kansas City wins, then Patrick Mahomes will win his fourth Super Bowl MVP award and that, if Philadelphia wins, Saquon Barkley will be named Super Bowl MVP.
Mahomes and Barkley are each commonly regarded as the best player on their respective teams.
With the whole world knowing and thinking this, there isn't going to be any betting value in either option.
There is too much that can go wrong for both players. It is likely enough that Mahomes and Barkley fail to produce statistically attractive enough outputs and to be the player most transparently responsible for his respective team winning that we should consider options available that yield a stronger payout.
Why Not Mahomes
Mahomes faces Philadelphia's second-ranked pass defense.
When he faced Houston's sixth-ranked pass defense in the first round of the playoffs, he threw for all of 177 yards. That isn't an MVP-caliber performance.
Now, Houston is Houston and Philadelphia is Philadelphia. But there are three important parallels: both teams have excellent pass rushes, terrific defensive backs, and excellent defensive coaching.
Against the Texans, Mahomes' wide receivers struggled to find separation. Two pass-catchers collected more than 13 yards. Only one of them was a wide receiver, Xavier Worthy. The other was tight end Travis Kelce.
Mahomes was likewise far from his best against the other higher-ranked pass defenses that he encountered in the regular season.
His passer rating was below-average in both of his games against the Chargers' seventh-ranked pass defense. It was an atrocious 44.4 against the 49ers' fourth-ranked pass defense.
Why Not Saquon Barkley
Barkley is clearly Philadelphia's offensive centerpiece. It is obvious that he is the offense's strongest player in general and it is equally obvious that Philadelphia's offense wants to rely primarily on him. This is why he's the team's most strongly favored MVP option.
And this is why it is reasonable to think that he fails to have a great game.
Recall 2020. Kansas City, known as a team that could not stop the run, faced elite running back Derrick Henry and his Tennessee Titans.
Like Barkley for Philadelphia, Henry was obviously Tennessee's offensive centerpiece.
Kansas City's genius defensive coordinator was determined to limit Henry and did. Henry mustered all of 69 rushing yards on 19 carries.
Who Is Worth Investing In, Then?
Typically, the MVP comes from winning team.
Given this tendency, we have to choose the winning team in order to have a chance at selecting the MVP.
Thus, we have to be right about two major things instead of just one: we have to be right about who the winning team is and about who the MVP is.
My thought is to avoid having to be right about who will win the game.
I recommend, therefore, choosing the MVP option for both teams that offers the best betting value.
Travis Kelce
A seven-time All-Pro selection, Kelce is elite in general, yet he elevates himself even further in the postseason.
He is a record-holder in multiple postseason categories, including all-time receptions and number of 100-yard games.
It can't be a surprise if a guy like this were to win an MVP award.
Given what has happened so far, it is actually extremely realistic.
Kansas City's wide receivers struggled to contend with Houston's secondary and will struggle again with Philadelphia's — the Eagles do commonly lock down opposing wide receivers, as we saw when they allowed tight end Zach Ertz to be his team's leading pass-catcher in the NFC Championship Game.
Kelce has a great outlook against a Philadelphia defense that employs zone coverage with the tenth-highest frequency.
With his skill set, Kelce leads the team in yards against zone coverage.
He is famous for getting open. He finds soft spots in defenses and makes himself available to his quarterback, who will be desperate to find open options and will readily rely on his most trusted pass-catcher.
By a significant margin, Kelce will be his team's leading pass-catcher. Because Mahomes won't have a great game overall, the final statistical record will show Kelce to be responsible for a very significant portion of Mahomes' passing yards.
If the Chiefs win, Kelce will be the clear MVP choice.
DeVonta Smith
For Philadelphia, somebody will need to step up when the Chiefs' defense locks in on Barkley.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has two great wide receivers to rely on, both of whom, when they are playing and are healthy, commonly garner enough attention to preclude tight end Dallas Goedert
from getting many yards.
A.J. Brown is known for his success against man coverage and DeVonta Smith for his success against zone.
Now, Spagnuolo likes to mix coverages.
But it is clear whether he'll prefer man or zone in this game.
In terms of metrics like success rate, it is clear that Hurts is considerably worse against zone than against man.
It is easy to see why — with the second-highest TT (time to throw) average, he tends to hold on to the ball too long and will hesitate too much when faced with zone coverage.
He needs to be able to rely on a great zone beater in order to sustain drives.
Smith leads the Eagles with receiving yards against zone.
A great route-runner, he has also produced a highlight reel against man coverage, too, as evident in his historic success against elite Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr.
It is his comfort with zone coverage that makes him a better option in this specific matchup than Philadelphia's general top pass-catcher Brown.
Smith will be Philadelphia's top pass-catcher and best offensive player.
Takeaway
When betting on two different players, I like to split a unit.
With half a unit on each less-favored player, the payout will be excellent when either one wins MVP.
Best Bet: Travis Kelce Super Bowl MVP at +1600 with Bet365 & DeVonta Smith Super Bowl MVP at +5000 with Bet365
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome
The Odds (per Bet365)
Patrick Mahomes +110
Saquon Barkley +260
Jalen Hurts +350
Travis Kelce +1600
Xavier Worthy +2500
A.J. Brown +3000
Chris Jones +5000
DeVonta Smith +5000
Kareem Hunt +5000
Don't Bet The Favorites
It feels like a truism to say that, if Kansas City wins, then Patrick Mahomes will win his fourth Super Bowl MVP award and that, if Philadelphia wins, Saquon Barkley will be named Super Bowl MVP.
Mahomes and Barkley are each commonly regarded as the best player on their respective teams.
With the whole world knowing and thinking this, there isn't going to be any betting value in either option.
There is too much that can go wrong for both players. It is likely enough that Mahomes and Barkley fail to produce statistically attractive enough outputs and to be the player most transparently responsible for his respective team winning that we should consider options available that yield a stronger payout.
Why Not Mahomes
Mahomes faces Philadelphia's second-ranked pass defense.
When he faced Houston's sixth-ranked pass defense in the first round of the playoffs, he threw for all of 177 yards. That isn't an MVP-caliber performance.
Now, Houston is Houston and Philadelphia is Philadelphia. But there are three important parallels: both teams have excellent pass rushes, terrific defensive backs, and excellent defensive coaching.
Against the Texans, Mahomes' wide receivers struggled to find separation. Two pass-catchers collected more than 13 yards. Only one of them was a wide receiver, Xavier Worthy. The other was tight end Travis Kelce.
Mahomes was likewise far from his best against the other higher-ranked pass defenses that he encountered in the regular season.
His passer rating was below-average in both of his games against the Chargers' seventh-ranked pass defense. It was an atrocious 44.4 against the 49ers' fourth-ranked pass defense.
Why Not Saquon Barkley
Barkley is clearly Philadelphia's offensive centerpiece. It is obvious that he is the offense's strongest player in general and it is equally obvious that Philadelphia's offense wants to rely primarily on him. This is why he's the team's most strongly favored MVP option.
And this is why it is reasonable to think that he fails to have a great game.
Recall 2020. Kansas City, known as a team that could not stop the run, faced elite running back Derrick Henry and his Tennessee Titans.
Like Barkley for Philadelphia, Henry was obviously Tennessee's offensive centerpiece.
Kansas City's genius defensive coordinator was determined to limit Henry and did. Henry mustered all of 69 rushing yards on 19 carries.
Who Is Worth Investing In, Then?
Typically, the MVP comes from winning team.
Given this tendency, we have to choose the winning team in order to have a chance at selecting the MVP.
Thus, we have to be right about two major things instead of just one: we have to be right about who the winning team is and about who the MVP is.
My thought is to avoid having to be right about who will win the game.
I recommend, therefore, choosing the MVP option for both teams that offers the best betting value.
Travis Kelce
A seven-time All-Pro selection, Kelce is elite in general, yet he elevates himself even further in the postseason.
He is a record-holder in multiple postseason categories, including all-time receptions and number of 100-yard games.
It can't be a surprise if a guy like this were to win an MVP award.
Given what has happened so far, it is actually extremely realistic.
Kansas City's wide receivers struggled to contend with Houston's secondary and will struggle again with Philadelphia's — the Eagles do commonly lock down opposing wide receivers, as we saw when they allowed tight end Zach Ertz to be his team's leading pass-catcher in the NFC Championship Game.
Kelce has a great outlook against a Philadelphia defense that employs zone coverage with the tenth-highest frequency.
With his skill set, Kelce leads the team in yards against zone coverage.
He is famous for getting open. He finds soft spots in defenses and makes himself available to his quarterback, who will be desperate to find open options and will readily rely on his most trusted pass-catcher.
By a significant margin, Kelce will be his team's leading pass-catcher. Because Mahomes won't have a great game overall, the final statistical record will show Kelce to be responsible for a very significant portion of Mahomes' passing yards.
If the Chiefs win, Kelce will be the clear MVP choice.
DeVonta Smith
For Philadelphia, somebody will need to step up when the Chiefs' defense locks in on Barkley.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has two great wide receivers to rely on, both of whom, when they are playing and are healthy, commonly garner enough attention to preclude tight end Dallas Goedert
from getting many yards.
A.J. Brown is known for his success against man coverage and DeVonta Smith for his success against zone.
Now, Spagnuolo likes to mix coverages.
But it is clear whether he'll prefer man or zone in this game.
In terms of metrics like success rate, it is clear that Hurts is considerably worse against zone than against man.
It is easy to see why — with the second-highest TT (time to throw) average, he tends to hold on to the ball too long and will hesitate too much when faced with zone coverage.
He needs to be able to rely on a great zone beater in order to sustain drives.
Smith leads the Eagles with receiving yards against zone.
A great route-runner, he has also produced a highlight reel against man coverage, too, as evident in his historic success against elite Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr.
It is his comfort with zone coverage that makes him a better option in this specific matchup than Philadelphia's general top pass-catcher Brown.
Smith will be Philadelphia's top pass-catcher and best offensive player.
Takeaway
When betting on two different players, I like to split a unit.
With half a unit on each less-favored player, the payout will be excellent when either one wins MVP.
Best Bet: Travis Kelce Super Bowl MVP at +1600 with Bet365 & DeVonta Smith Super Bowl MVP at +5000 with Bet365
