I’m still out and about. Here’s what it comes down to. The experts have analyzed this from every angle. The non-experts which includes myself have done the same.
The Chiefs have looked very good while going 8-0 (SU and ATS) since November 10. The Niners looked very strong much of the season. They did not look good down the stretch at points. And have played out of their minds the last two weeks.
There has been an idea that for some reason analytics don’t matter in this game. The analytics tell us quite a bit but it’s as if nobody is paying attention.
myth #1: The Niners rush offense is elite. They had a negative DVOA on the season. They finished one spot ahead of KC (who nobody thinks has an efficient rushing attack) on the season. There is a matchup advantage on paper in this area but the Chiefs have faced and have stopped better rushing attacks on the season despite their poor ranking. As mentioned earlier in the week, Mike Pennel has been huge in run D since he started playing with KC. They are 9-1 with him in the lineup, with the one loss being a Matt Moore led loss to Green Bay
myth #2: Jimmy G can’t win this game on his own. Do I want to see him try? Yes. But he has performed at a level far higher than he is being regarded. The Chiefs are the 3rd best passing defense the Niners will have faced however, rating 6th in DVOA. The Niners played 5 games against top 10 DVOA pass defenses. In those games, Jimmy had 3 TDS and 5 Ints. The key here and above is for the Niners to try to attack Daniel Sorenson, who remains one of the true weak links on d.
not a myth: You’re all just high on KC because of Mahomes. Yup.
myth #3: George Kittle is significantly a better right end than Kelce, because of blocking etc. DYAR measures the total value of a TE. For 2019 Kelce rated ahead of Kittle. Depending on which side of the field Kelce lines up, he’s going to create mismatches on defense either way. If you double him, you’re leaving Hill Hardman and Watkins to find the gaps in the zone or exploit one on one coverage. Kittle has a great matchup as well. And he’s outstanding. He’s the future of the position. His equal is going to have a day though on the other side.
In CTG land, I’ve read it’s “obvious” multiple times how many advantages SF has. I read how obvious it was two weeks ago as well.
here’s a small nugget that is being overlooked week after week: Aside from Baltimore, who had an amazing season, The Chiefs are the best and most complete team in football. Weighted DVOA which takes into account the latter portion of the season and minimizes the earlier portion of the season shows the Chiefs as a significantly better team (44% to 32%) than SF. The 12% difference is the regular season equivalent of the distance between SF and Minnesota. Neutral field SF would have been at least a 4 point fav in that game and that 12% difference was evident on the field.
All of the places I’ve seen SF have an “advantage” (other than rushing o vs rushing d), I don’t see it. The SF front 7 is awesome. KC will be the third best line they’ve faced in pass protection. The Rams were #1. Early in the season, the Niners dominated that game and had 4 sacks. In the rematch, there were no sacks and the Rams had 31 points. The second best line they faced were the Saints. They had no sacks and gave up 46 points. Now they play the best offense and line combo they’ve faced all season and I’m not sold in any way that they will get to Mahomes.
I think the Chiefs have the advantages where they need them (yes including coaching) and they will raise the Lombardi for the first time in 50 years. They will win both halves and hold on for a close victory.
I wish good luck to all Niners fans and backers. You all obv see this way differently. I at least tried to back my play with context and stats. Your mileage may vary.
my props reflect how I see the game playing out.
I look forward to reading other peoples threads before the game with their analysis.
