Super Bowl LIX Odds Ahead of NFL Week 1
Sportsbooks have released their odds for the upcoming Super Bowl LIX winner.
With the season not having started yet, now is a great time to invest in futures. When teams begin playing regular season games, the ones that we like will perform well, which will cause the odds to shift in their favor.
We want to place futures now while the odds are still so attractive.
Because there are many great teams, my betting strategy is to wager on two different teams in order to increase the odds of hitting. Let's invest .75 units in the more favored option and .25 units on the long-shot.
I will recommend investing in the more favored Philadelphia Eagles and the longshot Jacksonville Jaguars.
I will offer a profile of the most favored teams before explaining my two choices.
Super Bowl LIX Odds (per Bet365)
San Francisco 49ers +550
Kansas City Chiefs +550
Baltimore Ravens +900
Buffalo Bills +1200
Detroit Lions +1200
Cincinnati Bengals +1200
...
San Francisco 49ers
Profile
The 49ers are co-favored to win the Super Bowl because of how good they look on paper.
On offense, they have an excellent scheme in place that allows quarterback Brock Purdy to find open weapons.
These weapons include running back Christian McCaffrey, who is arguably the best at his position, and the versatile Deebo Samuel.
On defense, the 49ers lost a lot on the defensive line, but they still possess very effective pieces, such as former Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa.
This is still a defense with great players on all three levels: Fred Warner is, per PFF, the NFL's best linebacker. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir form perhaps the NFL's top cornerback duo.
Why Not Wager On San Francisco?
First of all, in futures betting, I am principally averse to selecting the favorite.
There is too much that can happen – injuries, for example, or sheer decisive luck in one of multiple NFL playoff games that a Super Bowl champion will have to win – in a parity league to justify taking a team at such a price as +550.
That being said, coaching matters, and San Francisco head coach is the Lamar Jackson of head coaches: you can't count on him to win the big game.
Kyle Shanahan is 0-3 in Super Bowls so far. That is damning.
Kansas City Chiefs
Profile
Speaking of coaches, the Chiefs arguably have the best coaches in the sport.
How else can you explain how a team whose offense struggled so mightily as Kansas City's did still managed to emerge as the Super Bowl champion?
In terms of personnel, the Chiefs struggled for lacking an adequate wide receiver with which to complement tight end Travis Kelce.
That adequate wide receiver emerged: Rashee Rice developed into a reliable weapon as the season progressed.
Despite his legal troubles, that weapon appears to be back.
He'll be supported by new wide receivers, making this wide receiver unit a newly strong group.
Baltimore's former leading wide receiver, Marquise Brown, is now a Chief.
Xavier Worthy is a first-round pick with a bright future.
Kansas City relied primarily on its defense last year.
It has the best defensive coordinator in the sport.
But losing L'Jarius Sneed is going to be tough. Nearly an All-Pro selection last year, he is a lockdown cornerback who is irreplaceable.
Why This Team Won't Win
History is against the Chiefs: no team has ever won three straight Super Bowls.
This is undoubtedly an incredible franchise. I do not mean to insult it in any way.
But this team is not good enough to win three straight Super Bowls, and I don't think any team ever will be.
Just think of how many escapes the Chiefs have had in recent playoff years: Mahomes had two third downs in a crucial drive against the Bengals; one Jaguars player stopped another Jaguars defender from scoring a pick-six; a Ravens player fumbled on the goal-line after a questionable call made that possible.
The Chiefs are bound to lose some time.
Baltimore Ravens
Profile
The Ravens are listed among the favorites.
They seem to be an attractive option: quarterback Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP, and they had the NFL's top scoring defense last year.
However, an already thin wide receiver group takes a hit with the departure of Hollywood Brown.
More crucially, the defense has lost several key figures, including star linebacker Patrick Queen, pass rushing menace Jadeveon Clowney, reigning AFC interception leader Geno Stone, and coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is also Joe Burrow's kryptonite.
Why You Shouldn't Bet on Baltimore
The Ravens' defense will likely will regress, and so will its offense.
Plus, Lamar Jackson can't win the big game. He has yet to take his team to the Super Bowl. He just can't figure it out. Against the Chiefs in last year's playoffs, for example, the issue was his bizarre disinclination to run more.
Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals
These teams are co-listed as the fourth-most favored to win the Super Bowl.
All three teams have damning questions on defense: the Bills at the edge and safety positions and at cornerback with depth; the Lions in their pass defense, which ranked 31st last year and will only improve so much after a single aggressive offseason; the Bengals ranked 31st in total defense last year and obviously have a lot to improve upon.
The Bills, though far away, are arguably the closest of the three, although the Lions – who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick this year – and Bengals with their more extensive star power on offense and their attractive additions in the secondary have more exciting potential.
Choice Number One: Philadelphia Eagles
Profile
Quarterback Jalen Hurts emerged from his last Super Bowl appearance, in 2023, as the loser, but it can hardly be said to be his fault: his Eagles scored 35 points largely due to his combined 374 total yards and four total touchdowns. We know that he can perform well in the biggest game.
Hurts' surrounding talent is arguably even better this year, with contested catch menace AJ Brown and superb route-runner DeVonta Smith still leading the wide receiving group and now with star Saquon Barkley at running back.
On defense, the defensive line will be stacked with several strong pieces.
Recent first round selections Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are living up to their potential on the interior.
On the edge, Bryce Huff as a Jet and Josh Sweat combined for 16.5 sacks season, and there is plenty of pass-rushing support for them.
At linebacker, the Eagles made improvements, such as by signing former All-Pro selection Devin White, who will join multiple valuable new pieces. Jeremiah Trotter Jr., was graded as the best run defender in college and is someone who can make an instant impact.
The secondary also features an All-Pro selection in cornerback Darius Slay, who is part of a well-rounded group.
Last year, the Eagles were let down by terrible coaching on both sides of the ball, but they found excellent coordinators both for their offense and their defense who have guided teams to top-ranking season performances on offense and defense, respectively.
Takeaway
I see the Eagles as having the best roster, top to bottom, in the NFC. San Francisco's might be close, but the price for Philly is so attractive.
Let's consider possible competitors: Dallas' terrible offseason, featuring the departure of several valuable contributors, will make the NFC East a cinch for Philadelphia to clinch.
It's too early for young Green Bay, as it is for Detroit's defense. There's just nobody else in the NFC.
When the Eagles are in the Super Bowl, it'll be like their money-line is +1400.
Best Bet: Eagles +1400 (.75 unit)
Long-Shot Choice: Jacksonville Jaguars
Profile
This is my long-shot pick. The basic reasoning is this: Jacksonville was 8-3 last year and was in the mix for the top seed. Then they collapsed.
We are getting what was one of the top teams last year at an amazing price because of this collapse.
The issue was purely on the defense. The offense did have problems, but these problems are so avoidable: Trevor Lawrence was playing through injury; the wide receiver group had an absurd total of drops and close no-touchdown outcomes in the end zone.
But it was the defense that collapsed thanks to its incompetent coordinator.
Jacksonville addressed this issue by hiring Ryan Nielsen away from Atlanta, where he helped the low-talent Falcon defense improve immensely last year.
On the defensive line, Josh Hines-Allen collected 90 quarterback pressures last year while Travon Walker added ten sacks.
Arik Armstead will be a fundamentally very valuable piece. The 49ers' defense played significantly better when he played. He is a great run defender and an important piece overall.
In the secondary. Tyson Campbell when healthy and Ronald Darby are very tough to complete passes against.
Campbell allowed a 54.2 percent completion rate when he was healthy two seasons ago. Darby consistently keeps his opposing completion rate under 55 percent.
Led by ball hawk Andre Cisco, Jacksonville's safety group is deep.
Jacksonville's improved pass defense will complement what was the ninth-ranked rush defense last year.
Takeaway
Jacksonville's late-season collapse last year has oddsmakers treating the Jaguars like a non-competitor, despite how close it came to upsetting the Chiefs in the playoffs just two years ago.
The Jaguars last year won at Houston and beat Buffalo.
The consistency and composure are what needs to be there. Trevor Lawrence is going to be more comfortable with this year's group of wide receivers, complementing his favored target tight end Evan Engram – Jacksonville's wide receiver changes suited his playing style very much: since his rookie year, Lawrence is top-five in deep-ball touchdowns and finally has deep threats in
Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.
This will be that 8-3 Jaguars team vying for a top seed plus a more able and crucially better-coached defense plus a more dangerous offense.
The head coach knows how to win a Super Bowl and has the group to do it.
The price is just way off for Jacksonville, making it worth a long- shot wager.
Best Bet: Jaguars +4500 at Bet365 (.25 unit)
Sportsbooks have released their odds for the upcoming Super Bowl LIX winner.
With the season not having started yet, now is a great time to invest in futures. When teams begin playing regular season games, the ones that we like will perform well, which will cause the odds to shift in their favor.
We want to place futures now while the odds are still so attractive.
Because there are many great teams, my betting strategy is to wager on two different teams in order to increase the odds of hitting. Let's invest .75 units in the more favored option and .25 units on the long-shot.
I will recommend investing in the more favored Philadelphia Eagles and the longshot Jacksonville Jaguars.
I will offer a profile of the most favored teams before explaining my two choices.
Super Bowl LIX Odds (per Bet365)
San Francisco 49ers +550
Kansas City Chiefs +550
Baltimore Ravens +900
Buffalo Bills +1200
Detroit Lions +1200
Cincinnati Bengals +1200
...
San Francisco 49ers
Profile
The 49ers are co-favored to win the Super Bowl because of how good they look on paper.
On offense, they have an excellent scheme in place that allows quarterback Brock Purdy to find open weapons.
These weapons include running back Christian McCaffrey, who is arguably the best at his position, and the versatile Deebo Samuel.
On defense, the 49ers lost a lot on the defensive line, but they still possess very effective pieces, such as former Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa.
This is still a defense with great players on all three levels: Fred Warner is, per PFF, the NFL's best linebacker. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir form perhaps the NFL's top cornerback duo.
Why Not Wager On San Francisco?
First of all, in futures betting, I am principally averse to selecting the favorite.
There is too much that can happen – injuries, for example, or sheer decisive luck in one of multiple NFL playoff games that a Super Bowl champion will have to win – in a parity league to justify taking a team at such a price as +550.
That being said, coaching matters, and San Francisco head coach is the Lamar Jackson of head coaches: you can't count on him to win the big game.
Kyle Shanahan is 0-3 in Super Bowls so far. That is damning.
Kansas City Chiefs
Profile
Speaking of coaches, the Chiefs arguably have the best coaches in the sport.
How else can you explain how a team whose offense struggled so mightily as Kansas City's did still managed to emerge as the Super Bowl champion?
In terms of personnel, the Chiefs struggled for lacking an adequate wide receiver with which to complement tight end Travis Kelce.
That adequate wide receiver emerged: Rashee Rice developed into a reliable weapon as the season progressed.
Despite his legal troubles, that weapon appears to be back.
He'll be supported by new wide receivers, making this wide receiver unit a newly strong group.
Baltimore's former leading wide receiver, Marquise Brown, is now a Chief.
Xavier Worthy is a first-round pick with a bright future.
Kansas City relied primarily on its defense last year.
It has the best defensive coordinator in the sport.
But losing L'Jarius Sneed is going to be tough. Nearly an All-Pro selection last year, he is a lockdown cornerback who is irreplaceable.
Why This Team Won't Win
History is against the Chiefs: no team has ever won three straight Super Bowls.
This is undoubtedly an incredible franchise. I do not mean to insult it in any way.
But this team is not good enough to win three straight Super Bowls, and I don't think any team ever will be.
Just think of how many escapes the Chiefs have had in recent playoff years: Mahomes had two third downs in a crucial drive against the Bengals; one Jaguars player stopped another Jaguars defender from scoring a pick-six; a Ravens player fumbled on the goal-line after a questionable call made that possible.
The Chiefs are bound to lose some time.
Baltimore Ravens
Profile
The Ravens are listed among the favorites.
They seem to be an attractive option: quarterback Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP, and they had the NFL's top scoring defense last year.
However, an already thin wide receiver group takes a hit with the departure of Hollywood Brown.
More crucially, the defense has lost several key figures, including star linebacker Patrick Queen, pass rushing menace Jadeveon Clowney, reigning AFC interception leader Geno Stone, and coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is also Joe Burrow's kryptonite.
Why You Shouldn't Bet on Baltimore
The Ravens' defense will likely will regress, and so will its offense.
Plus, Lamar Jackson can't win the big game. He has yet to take his team to the Super Bowl. He just can't figure it out. Against the Chiefs in last year's playoffs, for example, the issue was his bizarre disinclination to run more.
Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals
These teams are co-listed as the fourth-most favored to win the Super Bowl.
All three teams have damning questions on defense: the Bills at the edge and safety positions and at cornerback with depth; the Lions in their pass defense, which ranked 31st last year and will only improve so much after a single aggressive offseason; the Bengals ranked 31st in total defense last year and obviously have a lot to improve upon.
The Bills, though far away, are arguably the closest of the three, although the Lions – who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick this year – and Bengals with their more extensive star power on offense and their attractive additions in the secondary have more exciting potential.
Choice Number One: Philadelphia Eagles
Profile
Quarterback Jalen Hurts emerged from his last Super Bowl appearance, in 2023, as the loser, but it can hardly be said to be his fault: his Eagles scored 35 points largely due to his combined 374 total yards and four total touchdowns. We know that he can perform well in the biggest game.
Hurts' surrounding talent is arguably even better this year, with contested catch menace AJ Brown and superb route-runner DeVonta Smith still leading the wide receiving group and now with star Saquon Barkley at running back.
On defense, the defensive line will be stacked with several strong pieces.
Recent first round selections Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are living up to their potential on the interior.
On the edge, Bryce Huff as a Jet and Josh Sweat combined for 16.5 sacks season, and there is plenty of pass-rushing support for them.
At linebacker, the Eagles made improvements, such as by signing former All-Pro selection Devin White, who will join multiple valuable new pieces. Jeremiah Trotter Jr., was graded as the best run defender in college and is someone who can make an instant impact.
The secondary also features an All-Pro selection in cornerback Darius Slay, who is part of a well-rounded group.
Last year, the Eagles were let down by terrible coaching on both sides of the ball, but they found excellent coordinators both for their offense and their defense who have guided teams to top-ranking season performances on offense and defense, respectively.
Takeaway
I see the Eagles as having the best roster, top to bottom, in the NFC. San Francisco's might be close, but the price for Philly is so attractive.
Let's consider possible competitors: Dallas' terrible offseason, featuring the departure of several valuable contributors, will make the NFC East a cinch for Philadelphia to clinch.
It's too early for young Green Bay, as it is for Detroit's defense. There's just nobody else in the NFC.
When the Eagles are in the Super Bowl, it'll be like their money-line is +1400.
Best Bet: Eagles +1400 (.75 unit)
Long-Shot Choice: Jacksonville Jaguars
Profile
This is my long-shot pick. The basic reasoning is this: Jacksonville was 8-3 last year and was in the mix for the top seed. Then they collapsed.
We are getting what was one of the top teams last year at an amazing price because of this collapse.
The issue was purely on the defense. The offense did have problems, but these problems are so avoidable: Trevor Lawrence was playing through injury; the wide receiver group had an absurd total of drops and close no-touchdown outcomes in the end zone.
But it was the defense that collapsed thanks to its incompetent coordinator.
Jacksonville addressed this issue by hiring Ryan Nielsen away from Atlanta, where he helped the low-talent Falcon defense improve immensely last year.
On the defensive line, Josh Hines-Allen collected 90 quarterback pressures last year while Travon Walker added ten sacks.
Arik Armstead will be a fundamentally very valuable piece. The 49ers' defense played significantly better when he played. He is a great run defender and an important piece overall.
In the secondary. Tyson Campbell when healthy and Ronald Darby are very tough to complete passes against.
Campbell allowed a 54.2 percent completion rate when he was healthy two seasons ago. Darby consistently keeps his opposing completion rate under 55 percent.
Led by ball hawk Andre Cisco, Jacksonville's safety group is deep.
Jacksonville's improved pass defense will complement what was the ninth-ranked rush defense last year.
Takeaway
Jacksonville's late-season collapse last year has oddsmakers treating the Jaguars like a non-competitor, despite how close it came to upsetting the Chiefs in the playoffs just two years ago.
The Jaguars last year won at Houston and beat Buffalo.
The consistency and composure are what needs to be there. Trevor Lawrence is going to be more comfortable with this year's group of wide receivers, complementing his favored target tight end Evan Engram – Jacksonville's wide receiver changes suited his playing style very much: since his rookie year, Lawrence is top-five in deep-ball touchdowns and finally has deep threats in
Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.
This will be that 8-3 Jaguars team vying for a top seed plus a more able and crucially better-coached defense plus a more dangerous offense.
The head coach knows how to win a Super Bowl and has the group to do it.
The price is just way off for Jacksonville, making it worth a long- shot wager.
Best Bet: Jaguars +4500 at Bet365 (.25 unit)
