Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Early Super Bowl LV Prop Bets That Caught Our Eye
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Onside Kick
Yes/No
An onside kick could happen if one team wants to catch the other team off guard.
But an onside kick is significantly more likely to occur late in a game in case a team is down multiple touchdowns, scores points, and needs to regain possession ASAP.
I like for this prop bet to hit because I see these things happening: the Buccaneers will score late, but also still be down enough points that they need to attempt an onside kick.
Kansas City matches up excellently with Tampa Bay because the Chiefs possess a strong pass rush.
Season-long statistics do not capture the Chiefs’ current pass-rushing ability because season-long stats also account for the long time period during which the Kansas City pass rush had yet to discover itself.
But the Chiefs’ pass rush came on towards the end of the season. We saw it in their last game where they played starters. Against Atlanta, they accrued four sacks and 12 quarterback his.
We also saw this pass rush in KC’s last playoff game, against Buffalo. In that game, Bill quarterback Josh Allen was sacked four times and hit 10 times.
Frank Clark is just one guy to watch out for. He has a combined total of four sacks in Chief starters' last five games.
Pressure is important because Tom Brady does a terrible job when pressured.
Brady is immobile and cannot escape pressure. He also does not handle pressure well when he fails to escape it.
Right now, his completion percentage is 33.7 when he is pressured, which ranks 29th.
While Brady struggles with Kansas City’s pass rush, the Chief offense led by a healthy Patrick Mahomes will make plays.
Mahomes’ mobility and versatility allow him to rank 11th in completion percentage when pressured.
Also, whereas Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay offense likes to call for go routes downfield that take longer to develop, Mahomes can find wide receivers quickly if he needs to.
Tyreek Hill, especially, should either have a big game or attract so much defensive attention that his teammates have greater performances.
Carlton Davis will likely cover Hill, although Davis consistently struggles to stay with fast wide receivers like Hill and Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley because he possesses more of a physical skill set.
When these two teams met on November 29, Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns.
So Kansas City will build a solid lead. But the Chiefs also tend to become relaxed late in games with a strong lead.
Their regular season contest with Miami and even their AFC Championship contest with Buffalo provide proof of this tendency, which creates greater opportunity for the opponent to score late, in which case that opponent will then want to attempt an onside kick.
Best Bet; Yes at +120 with Bovada
Longest Touchdown Scored
Over/Under 44.5 Yards
&
This 'longest touchdown scored' bet looks like an easy “over” until you really consider the number being posted..
Both quarterbacks like to throw deep and are more than capable of doing so.
But the Chiefs’ surging pressure will prevent Brady from comfortably standing in the pocket long enough to hit a teammate deep.
Also, Tampa Bay possesses a strong pass rush of its own that was one of the better ones throughout the season in terms of sack rate and that is coming off a five-sack effort against Green Bay.
The Buc pass rush benefits from the absence of Kansas City’s starting left tackle, Eric Fisher.
It is true that, with Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has a speedster who can accrue a lot of yards after the catch.
But Hill has accrued over 44 yards on a catch only three times this year — postseason included — and scored touchdowns on only two of those times.
After he absolutely embarrassed the Tampa Bay defense, I strongly suspect that the Bucs think of and do everything possible to limit him.
Without deep ball threats from Mahomes or Brady and with Hill kept under wraps, long touchdowns will remain averted.
Moreover, as both offenses find their footing, either team’s pass rush promises to draw first blood.
So also bet on a sack to happen before a touchdown.
Under 44.5 Yards at -120 at Bovada & Sack at -105 at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Onside Kick
Yes/No
An onside kick could happen if one team wants to catch the other team off guard.
But an onside kick is significantly more likely to occur late in a game in case a team is down multiple touchdowns, scores points, and needs to regain possession ASAP.
I like for this prop bet to hit because I see these things happening: the Buccaneers will score late, but also still be down enough points that they need to attempt an onside kick.
Kansas City matches up excellently with Tampa Bay because the Chiefs possess a strong pass rush.
Season-long statistics do not capture the Chiefs’ current pass-rushing ability because season-long stats also account for the long time period during which the Kansas City pass rush had yet to discover itself.
But the Chiefs’ pass rush came on towards the end of the season. We saw it in their last game where they played starters. Against Atlanta, they accrued four sacks and 12 quarterback his.
We also saw this pass rush in KC’s last playoff game, against Buffalo. In that game, Bill quarterback Josh Allen was sacked four times and hit 10 times.
Frank Clark is just one guy to watch out for. He has a combined total of four sacks in Chief starters' last five games.
Pressure is important because Tom Brady does a terrible job when pressured.
Brady is immobile and cannot escape pressure. He also does not handle pressure well when he fails to escape it.
Right now, his completion percentage is 33.7 when he is pressured, which ranks 29th.
While Brady struggles with Kansas City’s pass rush, the Chief offense led by a healthy Patrick Mahomes will make plays.
Mahomes’ mobility and versatility allow him to rank 11th in completion percentage when pressured.
Also, whereas Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay offense likes to call for go routes downfield that take longer to develop, Mahomes can find wide receivers quickly if he needs to.
Tyreek Hill, especially, should either have a big game or attract so much defensive attention that his teammates have greater performances.
Carlton Davis will likely cover Hill, although Davis consistently struggles to stay with fast wide receivers like Hill and Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley because he possesses more of a physical skill set.
When these two teams met on November 29, Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns.
So Kansas City will build a solid lead. But the Chiefs also tend to become relaxed late in games with a strong lead.
Their regular season contest with Miami and even their AFC Championship contest with Buffalo provide proof of this tendency, which creates greater opportunity for the opponent to score late, in which case that opponent will then want to attempt an onside kick.
Best Bet; Yes at +120 with Bovada
Longest Touchdown Scored
Over/Under 44.5 Yards
&
What Will Happen First In The Game?
Sack/TouchdownThis 'longest touchdown scored' bet looks like an easy “over” until you really consider the number being posted..
Both quarterbacks like to throw deep and are more than capable of doing so.
But the Chiefs’ surging pressure will prevent Brady from comfortably standing in the pocket long enough to hit a teammate deep.
Also, Tampa Bay possesses a strong pass rush of its own that was one of the better ones throughout the season in terms of sack rate and that is coming off a five-sack effort against Green Bay.
The Buc pass rush benefits from the absence of Kansas City’s starting left tackle, Eric Fisher.
It is true that, with Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has a speedster who can accrue a lot of yards after the catch.
But Hill has accrued over 44 yards on a catch only three times this year — postseason included — and scored touchdowns on only two of those times.
After he absolutely embarrassed the Tampa Bay defense, I strongly suspect that the Bucs think of and do everything possible to limit him.
Without deep ball threats from Mahomes or Brady and with Hill kept under wraps, long touchdowns will remain averted.
Moreover, as both offenses find their footing, either team’s pass rush promises to draw first blood.
So also bet on a sack to happen before a touchdown.
Under 44.5 Yards at -120 at Bovada & Sack at -105 at Bovada