Super Bowl Discussion Thread
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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Nugzz
Tritty f'n Bunk
Every scenario has me thinking pats win by double digits... Then I remember what happened last year...
I have concerns about the lack of consistent playmakers on Seattle offense... Specifically at wideout... And I don't think their defense is as good as it was last year.. I'm gonna say 31-21 pats
I have concerns about the lack of consistent playmakers on Seattle offense... Specifically at wideout... And I don't think their defense is as good as it was last year.. I'm gonna say 31-21 pats
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
can Chancellor handle Gronk by himself? The Hawks have allowed the fifth fewest yards to tight ends this season, but the third most TD's.
http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/article/20150124/Sports/150127594
can the Hawk's defensive line get to Brady without help? These are the two of most important questions in my mind.
http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/article/20150124/Sports/150127594
can the Hawk's defensive line get to Brady without help? These are the two of most important questions in my mind.
D
dilaudid8
Guest
good morning BAR I look at it this way anytime you can get NE pick my god you take it. you wont get to many chances betting NE and NE has the better players the team is better. but it comes down to SEATTLE running back he will have to have a great game . the public is talking about SEATTLE D how is NE going to score but my Q is how is SEATTLE going to score NE has a real good D not like SEATTLE but good if SEATTLE running back gets stopped then its all over SEATTLE will lose and real big because NE has 2 great corners I want to see WILSON throw this ball on those 2 corners . NE will put everybody on the front line and make WILSON beat NE . seattle must get heat on brady if not it will be a real lond day for seattle 1 more thing SEATTLE cant stop the run thats a real bad sign I think some gamblers thinking this year is like last year not even close NE is a lot better the DENVER last year. I can't believe the oddsmakers are giving me NE pick ty oddsamkers/ bookmakers the public for this line I will see you at the bank Monday:egg:
aplous
Donkey Hater
From a rooting perspective....Seadderall and their bandwagon ass 12th man fans or New England and their cheating organization and their never smile asshole coach and spoiled fans who've won 2 handfulls of titles in the last decade? Tough call.
From a betting perspective I like NE. I just don't see Seattle dominating the line of scrimmage this years playoffs like they did last year. Carolina and GB both moved the ball well and that was in Seattle. I like NE to win.
From a betting perspective I like NE. I just don't see Seattle dominating the line of scrimmage this years playoffs like they did last year. Carolina and GB both moved the ball well and that was in Seattle. I like NE to win.
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
Concerns for the pats are
keeping russell in the pocket...when they don't get pressure on a qb and the protection finally breaks down there is usually a field in front of the qb to run...this has hurt the pats this year
getting pressure on russell at all...the pats sometime rely too much on the defensive backs and that is a concern
lynch getting 4-5 yards a carry....he's a bull
defending the deep pass
Concerns for the hawks are
brady getting time
stopping the pepper them with short passes approach that they have struggled with this year
shermann and thomas injuries
blount getting yards
summary
protection of the qb probably the key to this game....if brady gets time i do not see how the pats lose because i can't see the hawks scoring enough so i see the game unfolding as a test of who has the better luck at getting to the qb....if the defensive performance is similar and there is reason to believe so then it will come down to the offensive performance and the pats should be able to put up between 27 and 35 points while the hawks will realistically be able to book on 17-28 points
did not take special team play and turnovers into account....obviously if one team turns the ball over 4 times it's lights out and i'm not sure if russell has another miracle in him
i am biased as a hard core pats fan
keeping russell in the pocket...when they don't get pressure on a qb and the protection finally breaks down there is usually a field in front of the qb to run...this has hurt the pats this year
getting pressure on russell at all...the pats sometime rely too much on the defensive backs and that is a concern
lynch getting 4-5 yards a carry....he's a bull
defending the deep pass
Concerns for the hawks are
brady getting time
stopping the pepper them with short passes approach that they have struggled with this year
shermann and thomas injuries
blount getting yards
summary
protection of the qb probably the key to this game....if brady gets time i do not see how the pats lose because i can't see the hawks scoring enough so i see the game unfolding as a test of who has the better luck at getting to the qb....if the defensive performance is similar and there is reason to believe so then it will come down to the offensive performance and the pats should be able to put up between 27 and 35 points while the hawks will realistically be able to book on 17-28 points
did not take special team play and turnovers into account....obviously if one team turns the ball over 4 times it's lights out and i'm not sure if russell has another miracle in him
i am biased as a hard core pats fan
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I don't see an overwhelming argument for either team. The total makes me feel it's a 24-21 type game. The value could lie within the team totals. Seattles offense would seem more hard pressed to get to 24. With the Pats being able to move the ball and kill clock Belicheat style, we could be looking at a 20-16 type score late.
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
Some thoughts/concerns/comments.....no order, just off the top.....and 12 of them of course
1. Sherman and Thomas are healthy and I have no concerns.....Sherman had a pick in practice yesterday where both arms were max-extended over his head to get...local media guys who saw it live were impressed.
2. Gronk is a huge concern for the Hawks.....Antonio Gates had an absolute field day against the Hawks in SD....I also worry about too much attention being paid to him and it opens the door for big days from others...notably (imo) Brandon LaFell
3. Hawks need to get pressure.....Brady is old, slow and imobile....pressure will be a huge disruption.
4. Everyone focusing on the match-up between Pats O/Hawks D......I think there is a big discounting of the Hawks Offense....they have been a very effective offensive team this year (top 10 in a lot of offensive categories)......
5. Patriots struggle to rush the passer.....if they can't get pressure on RWil, it could be a long, long night.....Wilson is so dynamic when given time and can extend plays....
6. Haushka (Seattle kicker) had an absolutely disastrous game earlier in the year on this same field, missing 3 FG attempts....he is one of the best in the league and I can only hope there isn't something about this field/stadium that produces negative thoughts.
7. One big key to Seattle successfully running the ball is keeping Wilfork going side to side, as opposed to letting him get penetration and disrupting Lynch/Turbin angles of attack
8. I think NE will give Blount a lot of carries.....I don't have any hard stats to prove it, but my "Seahawks eye" tells me that the Hawks struggle more with bigger guys that can effectively get through arm tackle attempts than speed guys that try and beat the defense to the corner.....would be a mistake for Bellicheck to not bet Blount the bulk of carries
9. The match-up between the Pats O/Hawks D is interesting insomuch as the Hawks will give teams teh short/underneath stuff, basically saying you can't dink and dunk against us the entire field without us forcing you off.........the Pats thrive on this short, ball control passing game....if the Hawks LBs have a very good/great game in pass coverage, it will be very tough for teh Pats to move the ball consistently
10. I am going to say this right now....the Seahawks beat the best team in the NFL in the NFC championship game.....I think GB is better on both sides of the ball than NE....while I do think the Hawks are fortunate to be in the SB, I do not believe that GB is substantially better than the Hawks...GB was very, very forunate to be +3 in TO in the NFC Champ game and should have capitalized....the margain between the Hawks and GB is razor thin.......this is one game and anything can happen, but I do think the Hawks are the better team here
11. I absolutely worry about the Hawk receivers getting separation against Revis and Browner, but I also think we will game-plan away from those match-ups......I am looking for two or three screen plays to Marshawn, RWil looking for Luke Wilson quite a bit, some underneath stuff to Lockette, swing passes out of hte backfield to Lynch/Turbin/Michael.......
12. Overall, the Hawks have been pretty miserable in the first half this year.....they simply cannot afford to come out slow and fall behind in this game....as much as I can't stand the love for Bellicheat, he is unlikely to make mistakes late that will help
1. Sherman and Thomas are healthy and I have no concerns.....Sherman had a pick in practice yesterday where both arms were max-extended over his head to get...local media guys who saw it live were impressed.
2. Gronk is a huge concern for the Hawks.....Antonio Gates had an absolute field day against the Hawks in SD....I also worry about too much attention being paid to him and it opens the door for big days from others...notably (imo) Brandon LaFell
3. Hawks need to get pressure.....Brady is old, slow and imobile....pressure will be a huge disruption.
4. Everyone focusing on the match-up between Pats O/Hawks D......I think there is a big discounting of the Hawks Offense....they have been a very effective offensive team this year (top 10 in a lot of offensive categories)......
5. Patriots struggle to rush the passer.....if they can't get pressure on RWil, it could be a long, long night.....Wilson is so dynamic when given time and can extend plays....
6. Haushka (Seattle kicker) had an absolutely disastrous game earlier in the year on this same field, missing 3 FG attempts....he is one of the best in the league and I can only hope there isn't something about this field/stadium that produces negative thoughts.
7. One big key to Seattle successfully running the ball is keeping Wilfork going side to side, as opposed to letting him get penetration and disrupting Lynch/Turbin angles of attack
8. I think NE will give Blount a lot of carries.....I don't have any hard stats to prove it, but my "Seahawks eye" tells me that the Hawks struggle more with bigger guys that can effectively get through arm tackle attempts than speed guys that try and beat the defense to the corner.....would be a mistake for Bellicheck to not bet Blount the bulk of carries
9. The match-up between the Pats O/Hawks D is interesting insomuch as the Hawks will give teams teh short/underneath stuff, basically saying you can't dink and dunk against us the entire field without us forcing you off.........the Pats thrive on this short, ball control passing game....if the Hawks LBs have a very good/great game in pass coverage, it will be very tough for teh Pats to move the ball consistently
10. I am going to say this right now....the Seahawks beat the best team in the NFL in the NFC championship game.....I think GB is better on both sides of the ball than NE....while I do think the Hawks are fortunate to be in the SB, I do not believe that GB is substantially better than the Hawks...GB was very, very forunate to be +3 in TO in the NFC Champ game and should have capitalized....the margain between the Hawks and GB is razor thin.......this is one game and anything can happen, but I do think the Hawks are the better team here
11. I absolutely worry about the Hawk receivers getting separation against Revis and Browner, but I also think we will game-plan away from those match-ups......I am looking for two or three screen plays to Marshawn, RWil looking for Luke Wilson quite a bit, some underneath stuff to Lockette, swing passes out of hte backfield to Lynch/Turbin/Michael.......
12. Overall, the Hawks have been pretty miserable in the first half this year.....they simply cannot afford to come out slow and fall behind in this game....as much as I can't stand the love for Bellicheat, he is unlikely to make mistakes late that will help
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Anything else?
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Pats offense is playing at such a high level pretty much since the Monday Nighter in KC ... Call me SpongeBob SquarePants, but it's tough not to back 'em. I like the over too, doubling down on square.
takeit
THE Wife
the cold, the fire alarms or something else?
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
Brady's cold.......btw, gotta love the fire alarms....need to arrest the entire society of "12s" in Phoenix if you want that to stop.....there probably isn't an NFL rule that prohibits fans from pulling alarms in opposing team's hotels....."taking no action contrary to the express NLF rules"
takeit
THE Wife
I'm sure there's not an NFL rule against it, but I'm sure there is a real law (the kind where you can get arrested) against it.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
it happens a lot in Eastern Europe and South America in International Football, not just fire alarms but fire works, all night chanting outside hotel rooms
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
for the TE it's been a huge change since they got healthy on D, from Grantland today
[TABLE="class: alt-rows, width: 539"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]vs. TEs[/TH]
[TH]QBR[/TH]
[TH]QBR Rank[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Through Week 11[/TD]
[TD]94.8[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Since Week 12[/TD]
[TD]27.0[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Pretty bad QBs they played the last few weeks tho
As someone who will be playing the Hawks pretty large in various ways, those are my biggest concerns. Can they get to Brady? They didn't get to immobile Rodgers but they really didn't try to much and they need to here. Kam must be able to be at least sufficient in pass coverage against Gronk, we all know it's the weakest part of his game, and possibly Seattle disguises that by switching up coverages.
Seattle pressures Brady, they are in great shape. If not, gonna be a longer night than I would expect.
Great points captjohn, it's where my head is as a Seattle bettor.
As someone who will be playing the Hawks pretty large in various ways, those are my biggest concerns. Can they get to Brady? They didn't get to immobile Rodgers but they really didn't try to much and they need to here. Kam must be able to be at least sufficient in pass coverage against Gronk, we all know it's the weakest part of his game, and possibly Seattle disguises that by switching up coverages.
Seattle pressures Brady, they are in great shape. If not, gonna be a longer night than I would expect.
Great points captjohn, it's where my head is as a Seattle bettor.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Something else I saw is with Sherman, Hawks have been hesitant to move him around but I wonder if they do it here
the Pats thrive on the middle/underneath stuff, so having Sherman move around would most likely open them up to the deep ball (so you don't do it against a Rodgers/Jordy/Cobb offense) but against a Brady who struggles to throw it deep now
if they don't, Brady will just focus on the other side of the field and I think they just throw a bunch of 8-12 yard passes and move the ball methodically
the Pats thrive on the middle/underneath stuff, so having Sherman move around would most likely open them up to the deep ball (so you don't do it against a Rodgers/Jordy/Cobb offense) but against a Brady who struggles to throw it deep now
if they don't, Brady will just focus on the other side of the field and I think they just throw a bunch of 8-12 yard passes and move the ball methodically
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Ya the pressure is the biggest part for me, you go back to that KC monday night game when Brady had no time, and the difference after that was about 90% OL
if they can give Brady time, I think the Pats win, his only weakness now is throwing deep but if he has time he will move the ball on anyone
if he has no time, he's forcing throws
I think the above comes down to coaching and I think the Pats have the advantage, I don't think over two weeks anyone can gameplan like Bill
I really like the Pats matchup on Defense against the Hawks too, their 2nd half against the run this year was great, they only allowed 2 runs over 20 yards this year, and the Pats are really good at spying a running QB as well
if they can give Brady time, I think the Pats win, his only weakness now is throwing deep but if he has time he will move the ball on anyone
if he has no time, he's forcing throws
I think the above comes down to coaching and I think the Pats have the advantage, I don't think over two weeks anyone can gameplan like Bill
I really like the Pats matchup on Defense against the Hawks too, their 2nd half against the run this year was great, they only allowed 2 runs over 20 yards this year, and the Pats are really good at spying a running QB as well
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I saw someone else mention it but Luke Wilson props I would look at, Pats have been smoked by TE's all year and Revis should shut down Baldwin, leaving Kearse and Wilson as the two biggest targets
D
dilaudid8
Guest
oh my god i'm cracking up so MF hard:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
ArizonaKid
Pretty much a regular
I didn't know Fondy was African-American.
Retburj13
SpongeBob Squarecapper
Super Bowl action report out of @TheMirageLV : "Still all Patriots, from a money standpoint. Tickets are almost even, few more on Pats."
also liking a LaFell prop over 4.5 catches....think he is a forgotten player ( Sea wants to stop Julian and Gronk) who steps up here and has Brady's trust as well.
also liking a LaFell prop over 4.5 catches....think he is a forgotten player ( Sea wants to stop Julian and Gronk) who steps up here and has Brady's trust as well.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
I have not heard much discussion about the total in this game. Seems to me like Under is the best play. Neither team is very explosive - they both like to play ball control and both defenses are formidable. I think both coaches realize how evenly matched these teams are and that 1 or 2 big plays could be the difference in the game. As such, I expect them both to play a little conservative. I would be shocked to see this game turn into a shootout.
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Totally agree on the UNDER. Just wish I grabbed it early at 48.5.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Do Pats fans not travel well? or are they just late arriving
a bunch of NFL writers on twitter are saying its like 75% Seahawks fans
a bunch of NFL writers on twitter are saying its like 75% Seahawks fans
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
ya makes sense, and I know prices are cheaper, plus the snow might have effected travel
noise could have an impact, especially with Hawks fans
noise could have an impact, especially with Hawks fans
takeit
THE Wife
Those fans are LOUD. I'd say it was 50/50 last year and they drowned us out (not that we had a lot to cheer for). I think I lost hearing in my left ear from the shrill of the lady next to me yelling seaHAWKS for 3 hours.
CASH
Pretty much a regular
All kinds of parties going on for pats fans at different bars ...
I would suspect it would be more hawks fans with west coasters being there for the winter months..
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
ya travel is definitely a part of it
west coast snowbirds settle in Phoenix vs East Coast in Florida
also flights to Phx aren't cheap but its still really cheap here to fly to southern cal or LV and drive over so that plays a part too
maybe I am remembering wrong but the 2 Giants superbowls I remember being over 50% pats fans in the crows
CASH
Pretty much a regular
I have friends that went to Vegas first and driving in tomorrow.
have others that are there.. Staying 30 or so minutes away..
just saw a post from "westgate"
CASH
Pretty much a regular
And they will have to stay at least an extra night.. Expecting another foot of snow through Monday ..airport will close
D
dudleysdad
Guest
If u think the OL is a concern its going to be a long day, sea gets to the qb
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4Jr4PGeKtQ8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
CASH
Pretty much a regular
correct and if they don't,, i t will be a long day for the Seattle D,, Brady will have time to go through his reads..
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
thats big news
cxbbum
Kickball Investor
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
A few SB stats from 1994/95-2013/14 (20 in total, since the inception of the salary cap)...
- the 4 previous teams that won their conference championship game by 18+ points went 0-4 SU in the SB (losing by 7, 11, 12 & 27 pt margins).
- the 4 teams who scored 39+ pts in winning their conference championship game went 1-3 SU in the SB.
- the 4 teams who won their conference championship game in overtime went 3-1 SU in the SB: all 4 teams trailed @half-time (by 1, 4, 4 & 11 pts) in the SB.
- Only 4 SB have featured winners who totaled less than 23 pts: all 4 involved the presence of either Seattle or New England.
---------------------------------------------------------
- There's been no instances of 3 straight SB failing to feature a lead change: the last 2 SB have not (the 3rd instance of consecutive SB from this period failing to feature such).
- There's been no instances of consecutive SB being decided by 12+ pt margins: the average winning margin for a SB following one decided by a 12+ pts margin, has been 5.57 pts (the largest being 10 pts).
- Only 3 teams won their conference championship game & the SB without a lead-change occurring in either game: all 3 teams opened the scoring in the SB w/a TD.
- The 1st scoring team has won the last 4 SB: the rate of 1st scorers winning SU over the previous 16 SB from this period was just 50%.
- The last 4 SB have not seen the scoring open w/a FG: the previous longest sequence of SB's without such a 1st scoring play was 2 (twice).
- the 4 previous teams that won their conference championship game by 18+ points went 0-4 SU in the SB (losing by 7, 11, 12 & 27 pt margins).
- the 4 teams who scored 39+ pts in winning their conference championship game went 1-3 SU in the SB.
- the 4 teams who won their conference championship game in overtime went 3-1 SU in the SB: all 4 teams trailed @half-time (by 1, 4, 4 & 11 pts) in the SB.
- Only 4 SB have featured winners who totaled less than 23 pts: all 4 involved the presence of either Seattle or New England.
---------------------------------------------------------
- There's been no instances of 3 straight SB failing to feature a lead change: the last 2 SB have not (the 3rd instance of consecutive SB from this period failing to feature such).
- There's been no instances of consecutive SB being decided by 12+ pt margins: the average winning margin for a SB following one decided by a 12+ pts margin, has been 5.57 pts (the largest being 10 pts).
- Only 3 teams won their conference championship game & the SB without a lead-change occurring in either game: all 3 teams opened the scoring in the SB w/a TD.
- The 1st scoring team has won the last 4 SB: the rate of 1st scorers winning SU over the previous 16 SB from this period was just 50%.
- The last 4 SB have not seen the scoring open w/a FG: the previous longest sequence of SB's without such a 1st scoring play was 2 (twice).
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