Let's Profit From The Tastiest Defensive Props For The Super Bowl
Total Tackles And Assists - Aaron Donald
NFL Pick: Under 4.5
There is a lot of value in fading Aaron Donald. Oddsmakers have to set his total tackles and assists at a high number because he is arguably the best defensive tackle in the game. But it is because he is one of the best defensive tackles in the game that New England's genius coach Belichick will figure out a way to render L.A.'s most dangerous defensive weapon ineffective.
In fact, there is already a historical precedent for this--when New England beat the Rams 26-10 on December 4, 2016. In that game, the Patriots limited Donald to three tackles. They double-teamed him when they ran up his way or when Brady dropped back to make a longer throw. They ran draw plays in order to neutralize his quickness off the line, ran away from him in order to make him expend energy in pursuit, and hit him hard whenever the opportunity arose. New England will game-plan for Donald and wear him down to minimize his impact.
Total QB Sacks By The Los Angeles Rams
NFL Pick: Under 1.5
1.5 might seem like a low number, but consider what New England's pass protection has accomplished thus far. In their first playoff game, they played the Chargers who were supposed to have a dominant pass rush. In the regular season, they only ranked 15th in sacks per game, but that number was misleading because defensive end Joey Bosa only played in seven games. Nevertheless, he accrued 5.5 sacks and he was supposed to form a lethal duo with fellow defensive end Melvin Ingram. Against New England, neither one got a sack. Brady threw 44 passes in that game and was not sacked by a single Charger player.
After L.A., the Patriots faced the Chiefs. Kansas City's pass rush also boasted a solid reputation. In the regular season, it ranked fourth in sacks per game. KC could have ranked even better than fourth if Justin Houston had played all 16 games. He missed five games, but still achieved nine sacks and Houston played against New England. Against the Chiefs, Brady threw it 46 times and wasn't sacked a single time. So in 90 drop-backs against two of the best pass rushes, Brady was sacked zero times and was hit only three times. Based on this history, it would seem fair if Bovada offered a prop entitled "over/under 1.5 quarterback hits." Instead, we get 1.5 quarterback sacks.
New England's offensive line has been coached by Dante Scarnecchia since 2001, with the exception of 2014 and 2015. Under his tutelage, the Patriots' o-line has ranked among the best in terms of preventing pressure, sacks, hurries, and the like. Besides his extreme competency as a coach, it also helps that New England has been running as many times as it has been passing, meaning that potential pass rushers have to account for New England's run game. Scheme-wise, they often use heavier personnel. Also, Tom Brady is known for having a quick release. The Patriots lack a deep threat, so he doesn't tend to sit in the pocket and wait for receivers to go deep. He's also wise about throwing the ball away.
Team To Record The First Turnover In The Game
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams Commit First Turnover
My reasoning here is simple. The Rams' offense has two players with Super Bowl experience--wide receiver Brandin Cooks and running back C.J. Anderson. Conversely, 38 New England Patriots plus the coaching staff have experienced at least one Super Bowl. Inexperience breeds mistakes. Tom Brady won't screw up. He has thrown only five interceptions in eight Super Bowl appearances and one in the last two (in 2016 against Atlanta). So count on Goff or some other inexperienced Ram to make a mistake.
Total Tackles And Assists - Aaron Donald
NFL Pick: Under 4.5
There is a lot of value in fading Aaron Donald. Oddsmakers have to set his total tackles and assists at a high number because he is arguably the best defensive tackle in the game. But it is because he is one of the best defensive tackles in the game that New England's genius coach Belichick will figure out a way to render L.A.'s most dangerous defensive weapon ineffective.
In fact, there is already a historical precedent for this--when New England beat the Rams 26-10 on December 4, 2016. In that game, the Patriots limited Donald to three tackles. They double-teamed him when they ran up his way or when Brady dropped back to make a longer throw. They ran draw plays in order to neutralize his quickness off the line, ran away from him in order to make him expend energy in pursuit, and hit him hard whenever the opportunity arose. New England will game-plan for Donald and wear him down to minimize his impact.
Total QB Sacks By The Los Angeles Rams
NFL Pick: Under 1.5
1.5 might seem like a low number, but consider what New England's pass protection has accomplished thus far. In their first playoff game, they played the Chargers who were supposed to have a dominant pass rush. In the regular season, they only ranked 15th in sacks per game, but that number was misleading because defensive end Joey Bosa only played in seven games. Nevertheless, he accrued 5.5 sacks and he was supposed to form a lethal duo with fellow defensive end Melvin Ingram. Against New England, neither one got a sack. Brady threw 44 passes in that game and was not sacked by a single Charger player.
After L.A., the Patriots faced the Chiefs. Kansas City's pass rush also boasted a solid reputation. In the regular season, it ranked fourth in sacks per game. KC could have ranked even better than fourth if Justin Houston had played all 16 games. He missed five games, but still achieved nine sacks and Houston played against New England. Against the Chiefs, Brady threw it 46 times and wasn't sacked a single time. So in 90 drop-backs against two of the best pass rushes, Brady was sacked zero times and was hit only three times. Based on this history, it would seem fair if Bovada offered a prop entitled "over/under 1.5 quarterback hits." Instead, we get 1.5 quarterback sacks.
New England's offensive line has been coached by Dante Scarnecchia since 2001, with the exception of 2014 and 2015. Under his tutelage, the Patriots' o-line has ranked among the best in terms of preventing pressure, sacks, hurries, and the like. Besides his extreme competency as a coach, it also helps that New England has been running as many times as it has been passing, meaning that potential pass rushers have to account for New England's run game. Scheme-wise, they often use heavier personnel. Also, Tom Brady is known for having a quick release. The Patriots lack a deep threat, so he doesn't tend to sit in the pocket and wait for receivers to go deep. He's also wise about throwing the ball away.
Team To Record The First Turnover In The Game
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams Commit First Turnover
My reasoning here is simple. The Rams' offense has two players with Super Bowl experience--wide receiver Brandin Cooks and running back C.J. Anderson. Conversely, 38 New England Patriots plus the coaching staff have experienced at least one Super Bowl. Inexperience breeds mistakes. Tom Brady won't screw up. He has thrown only five interceptions in eight Super Bowl appearances and one in the last two (in 2016 against Atlanta). So count on Goff or some other inexperienced Ram to make a mistake.
