Super Bowl 50

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Regular Season Sides: 50-35 +28.96u
Regular Season ML: 26-31 +9.89u
Regular Season Totals: 3-9 -7.98u
Regular Season Teasers: 56-38 +3.66u
Regular Season Parlays: 13-25 -10.441u
Regular Season Overall: 148-138 +24.089u

Playoffs Sides: 8-4 +9.50u
Playoffs ML: 7-4 +10.20u

Playoffs Totals: no plays
Playoffs Teasers: 5-2 +2.40u
Playoffs Parlays: 3-2 +6.01u
Playoffs Overall: 23-12 +28.11u

Meh for the conference 'ships dropping a little over a unit. Looking to end the season on a high note but will be profitable no matter how the big one plays out. Pleased with the season and hope to hit a couple more to close it out. Since it's the last one of the year I'll ramble somem thoughts about the game. There's definitely others that will be able to give a better breakdown but what the hell. Let's get to it.....

Super Bowl Thoughts:

This one isn't totally about X's and O's for me. This is a great matchup and should be a great game. Of course if you listen to the masses the Broncos don't have a chance and it won't be close. Which could be the case and most of America would say "I told you so." But I see it as a close one and the Sheriff rides off into the sunset a champion.

We all know the Denver D is tops in the league and is probably the biggest reason they're playing Sunday and they'll be facing a Carolina O that's rolling and has made it look easy at times. Cam has had a great season and deserves the MVP this year. But the Denver D has been equally great if not historically great. MVP QB leading a high flying offense against the #1 D in the league sound familiar? We know how that one played out and I'm not saying that's how this will go at all. While the Broncos have been able to set their sights on a couple of sitting ducks the last couple of weeks they're gonna have a whole different challenge with Cam. But I think Wade Phillips will have something for Cam. This will be the best defense Carolina has faced all season. Huge mismatch with the Denver secondary and the Panther receiving core which may allow an extra defender in the box to handle the Panther running game. While Ware and Miller can't afford to take the same approach in this game I think they have the athletic ability to corral Cam. They can slow him enough to possibly frustrate him when things don't quite go as well as he's hoping. How will Cam react when he gets punched in the mouth by this Denver front 7? Denver has to rely on their D to keep things within reach and they have the unit that can do just that. They don't necessarily need to force a bunch of turnovers but hold ground and play field position to give Peyton a short field or two to operate on.

When Manning is on the field he'll be looking at a pretty good Panther D in their own right. Everyone in the free world knows Denver will have to establish the run to have any chance. Peyton can't win this game on his own and while most would think he's washed up, I'll look at the glass as half full. So remember a couple of years ago when he was the MVP of the league at the helm of a juggernaut O? Seems like a long time ago when they were facing a historically great D in the Seahawks. But the big difference for me is that Peyton and the Broncos thought he could still beat them by slinging it all over the yard and their offense could score on anyone. Run be damned. Well that didin't work out so well did it. Sometimes being that good can be a curse because when it doesn't work you're screwed because now you're in a situation you're not used to being in and trying to win the biggest game of the year. After they got punched in the mouth in that game they didn't want anything to do with the Seahawks and they didn't have a very good plan B. This is a different offense and a different Manning who has a different mentality this time around. He knows he can't win this game on his right arm alone but he's more than capable of contributing and guiding a team to a super bowl title while relying on everything he has around him. He's the smartest QB in the game (and maybe ever) at the line of scrimmage and the humbling experience a couple of years ago should pay off here. The Panther D is good but not invincible and can be run on if Denver will stick with it. They don't have to run for 200 yds but they do have to take the pressure off Manning and provide balance, which they can do. Keep Cam on the sideline and don't allow the Panthers to race out to a big lead to see how they react to a little bit of a different situation than they've been in lately. Let's see how Cam reacts when faced with a competitive game in the first half which doesn't seem like that's happened in forever. The Panther D is good but can be exploited and Peyton still has enough in the tank to take advantage of the chances he'll be presented with. He just can't miss the opportunities when they're there. Thomas Davis and Jared Allen are said to be playing even though they're injured and I think that's good news for the Broncos. I don't think they'll be as effective with their injuries. Norman can take away DT and Peyton will just find his other weapons. Manning doesn't have to do it all this time, he has to do just enough.

Then there's the whole conspiracy theory angle. While I don't buy into it I think it's interesting to ponder what the powers that be would script if they could. Consider for a minute how the year started. Deflategate right? Brady and the Patriots dominate the offseason headlines. Then we have all the talk after the season started about the message Brady would deliver and how motivated he'd be. He's talking about playing into his 40's, everyone talks about how he props up their offense, the Pats get cute and go throw crazy, etc. Is it fitting that his biggest rival is in the Super Bowl representing the AFC? How fitting a script would it be for Roger to rub it in Brady's face if he handed Manning the Lombardi Trophy? What a punch in the gut especially when Peyton was the one who knocked Brady out of the playoffs. Not to mention Manning retiring while winning a Super Bowl in his swan song and holding that over Brady's head the rest of his career. How perfect is that. Now I don't totally but any of that I just think it's fun to think about and who knows what kind of strings Roger has to pull. But if he did you'd think this might be one he'd tug on a little.

So all of that rambling to say I think Peyton is capable enough in this one to get the job done along with his running game and lean on the defense. The Panthers have had an unbelievable season and Cam deserves the MVP. But Cam hasn't seen anything like he'll see Sunday and I think he struggles and maybe gets a little frustrated when everything isn't sunshine and rainbows to dab under. Peyton's experience from a couple years ago was a nightmare at the time but I think it's going to come full circle Sunday. He's had a couple more weeks to get as healthy as possible to saddle up for one last ride. He won't go out like he'll be remembered by spinning dimes all over the field. He may rely on a run game and defense to do the heavy lifting but he'll go out a winner. I'll go old school and buy that defense wins championships on Sunday. Broncos outright. DEN 20 CAR 17


Sides:

Broncos +4 (2.2/2)...played during Car/AZ game
Broncos +6 (2.36/2)

ML:

Broncos +197 (1.5/2.955)

Teasers:

Broncos +12/Under 51 (1.3/1)

Parlays:

Broncos +6/Under 45 (1/2.624)
:shake: GL FELLAS :shake:
 
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Regular Season Sides: 50-35 +28.96u
Regular Season ML: 26-31 +9.89u

Regular Season Totals: 3-9 -7.98u
Regular Season Teasers: 56-38 +3.66u
Regular Season Parlays: 13-25 -10.441u
Regular Season Overall: 148-138 +24.089u

Playoffs Sides: 10-4 +13.50u
Playoffs ML: 8-4 +13.155u

Playoffs Totals: no plays
Playoffs Teasers: 6-2 +3.40u
Playoffs Parlays: 4-2 +8.634u
Playoffs Overall: 28-12 +38.689u

2015/2016 Sides: 60-39 (60.6%) +42.46u
2015/2016 ML: 34-35 (49.2%) +23.045u
2015/2016 Totals: 3-9 (25%) -7.98u
2015/2016 Teasers: 62-40 (60.7%) +7.06u
2015/2016 Parlays: 17-27 (38.6%) -1.807u
2015/2016 Overall: 176-150 (53.9%) +62.778u

Just wrapping up the year with some record keeping. Pretty clear where the weak spots are and don't think I'll be playing totals going forward. For whatever reason I just can't sniff those but other than that pretty pleased with how the season went down. Thanks for all the well wishes this season fellas. Now on to dig out of the hoops hole. :ballspin:
 
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