Ladies and Gentlemen,
It has been a somewhat uneven year for me. I swept the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship games 2 weeks ago going with both favorites Denver -5 and Seattle -3.5
I have had Seattle futured since early December and stand to make a tidy profit if they win the super bowl. Even if Denver wins I will profit as I have layed/sold some of my Seattle +300 bet.
I thought Seattle would beat Denver in the Super Bowl months ago and I don’t’ see any reasons why that will change now.
Denver has played Baltimore, Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Jacksonville, Indi (L), Washington, San Diego, KC, New England (L), KC, Tennessee, San Diego (L), Houston, Oakland. In the playoffs they have played San Diego and New England. That is a terribly easy schedule
Seattle has played Carolina, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Houston, Indi(L), Tennessee, Arizona, St Louis, Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Fran(L), Giants, Arizona(L), St Louis. In the playoffs they have played New Orleans and San Fran. Playing San Fran 3 times, Carolina, New Orleans twice, and Arizona is not easy. Do not discount strength of schedule
Numbers taken from various threads
We have the #1 offense vs. #1 defense. That has happened 4 other times and the defense has won 3 of the 4 times
A team with a defense ranked 20[SUP]th[/SUP] or worst has won the super bowl twice. EVER
The top 7 offenses in NFL history have not won the Super Bowl
18 top ranked offenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 10-8
15 top ranked defenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 12-3
Stats:
Seattle 5.8 ypl, Denver gives up 5.5 ypl
Denver 6.4 ypl, Seattle gives up 4.8 ypl
Seattle runs at 4.3 ypr, Denver gives up 3.9 ypr
Denver runs at 4.0 ypr, Seattle gives up 4.0
Seattle passes at 12.1 yps, Denver gives up 11.3 yps
Denver passes at 11.7, Seattle gives up only 9.2
What those stats show is that even though Denver’s offense is statistically the best ever, they don’t even throw for as many yards per attempt as seattle. Denver will dink and dunk its way down the field. But Seattle’s pass defense is one of the best ever giving up 9.2 yards per attempt.
I give the coaching advantage to Seattle
Health
Denver is injured while Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Ryan Clady gone since early in the year. Von Miller gone, safety Rahim Moore gone, Corner Chris Harris gone, Kevin Vickerson, Derek Wolfe up front also gone. Denver is pushing fifth rounder Malik Jackson and first rounder Sylvester Williams into the starting lineup. Hell, Jeremy Mincey who was cut by the Jaguars, yes the Jaguars, saw 16 snaps in the AFC Championship game. Denver is desperate up front and I have no idea how they are going to stop Seattle’s offense.
Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Do not discount Percy. What he did in less than a half vs New Orelans was remarkable
Weather favors Seattle. Outdoors in mild temperature. Seattle has already pitched a shutout at the Meadowlands this year shutting out the Giants.
I am surprised that Denver is favored. But when you take into account the public loves offense and Peyton, I somewhat understand.
Seattle +2 8 units
2 team parlay of Seattle +2 Under 48 1 unit
7 point tease of Seattle +9 Under 55 1 unit
Prediction Seattle 27 Denver 17 lean under
Wilson for MVP
<o
below is taken from barnwell, i would urge you to check the article </o
Seattle plays a Cover 3, where each defender is assigned to cover 1/3 of the field in the deep zones. Seattle twists it by pressing its starting corners, Sherman and Maxwell, onto the line of scrimmage where they can trail the receiver from step one before settling into their traditional zones. Earl Thomas takes the deep middle and the Seahawks play 4 underneath. Seattle simply does not give up yards after the catch.
Denver is very good at running the pick routes but Seattle will not play as much man as they have in the past. Also the jump ball is tough to do on Seattle as their big corners with ball skills on the outside will negate some of Manning to D. Thomas throws. Denver, who had the greatest offense of all time, could test Seattle by lining up bunch formations and creating advantages on the outside. Denver is also very good at blocking screens and they will test that vs. Seattle. Seattle’s defense only had 8 passes thrown to the deep middle this season, the lowest in football. In 2012, they also had the lowest at 15. Manning was 16 for 23 for 472 yards with 5 tochdowns this year to that area. If he does go there, it will be to Julius Thomas. I can’t see Peyton with his mediocre arm doing this. If Denver is to win, they are going to have to drink and dunk down the field. When they get in the red zone, Seattle will come out of their Cover 3 and play man to man and Broncos will go towards their pick plays and runs. Denver in the red zone has average 5.9 points per trip (league average is 4.8). However, Seattle’s defenses allows 3.7 points. The game could come down to this.
link is http://grantland.com/features/the-official-super-bowl-preview/
footballoutsiders.com is also very good dvoa ratings are essential
discussion is welcome...i will be around all weekend..enjoy the game
It has been a somewhat uneven year for me. I swept the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship games 2 weeks ago going with both favorites Denver -5 and Seattle -3.5
I have had Seattle futured since early December and stand to make a tidy profit if they win the super bowl. Even if Denver wins I will profit as I have layed/sold some of my Seattle +300 bet.
I thought Seattle would beat Denver in the Super Bowl months ago and I don’t’ see any reasons why that will change now.
Denver has played Baltimore, Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Jacksonville, Indi (L), Washington, San Diego, KC, New England (L), KC, Tennessee, San Diego (L), Houston, Oakland. In the playoffs they have played San Diego and New England. That is a terribly easy schedule
Seattle has played Carolina, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Houston, Indi(L), Tennessee, Arizona, St Louis, Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Fran(L), Giants, Arizona(L), St Louis. In the playoffs they have played New Orleans and San Fran. Playing San Fran 3 times, Carolina, New Orleans twice, and Arizona is not easy. Do not discount strength of schedule
Numbers taken from various threads
We have the #1 offense vs. #1 defense. That has happened 4 other times and the defense has won 3 of the 4 times
A team with a defense ranked 20[SUP]th[/SUP] or worst has won the super bowl twice. EVER
The top 7 offenses in NFL history have not won the Super Bowl
18 top ranked offenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 10-8
15 top ranked defenses have played in the super bowl and their record is 12-3
Stats:
Seattle 5.8 ypl, Denver gives up 5.5 ypl
Denver 6.4 ypl, Seattle gives up 4.8 ypl
Seattle runs at 4.3 ypr, Denver gives up 3.9 ypr
Denver runs at 4.0 ypr, Seattle gives up 4.0
Seattle passes at 12.1 yps, Denver gives up 11.3 yps
Denver passes at 11.7, Seattle gives up only 9.2
What those stats show is that even though Denver’s offense is statistically the best ever, they don’t even throw for as many yards per attempt as seattle. Denver will dink and dunk its way down the field. But Seattle’s pass defense is one of the best ever giving up 9.2 yards per attempt.
I give the coaching advantage to Seattle
Health
Denver is injured while Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Ryan Clady gone since early in the year. Von Miller gone, safety Rahim Moore gone, Corner Chris Harris gone, Kevin Vickerson, Derek Wolfe up front also gone. Denver is pushing fifth rounder Malik Jackson and first rounder Sylvester Williams into the starting lineup. Hell, Jeremy Mincey who was cut by the Jaguars, yes the Jaguars, saw 16 snaps in the AFC Championship game. Denver is desperate up front and I have no idea how they are going to stop Seattle’s offense.
Seattle is the healthiest they have been. Do not discount Percy. What he did in less than a half vs New Orelans was remarkable
Weather favors Seattle. Outdoors in mild temperature. Seattle has already pitched a shutout at the Meadowlands this year shutting out the Giants.
I am surprised that Denver is favored. But when you take into account the public loves offense and Peyton, I somewhat understand.
Seattle +2 8 units
2 team parlay of Seattle +2 Under 48 1 unit
7 point tease of Seattle +9 Under 55 1 unit
Prediction Seattle 27 Denver 17 lean under
Wilson for MVP
<o
below is taken from barnwell, i would urge you to check the article </oSeattle plays a Cover 3, where each defender is assigned to cover 1/3 of the field in the deep zones. Seattle twists it by pressing its starting corners, Sherman and Maxwell, onto the line of scrimmage where they can trail the receiver from step one before settling into their traditional zones. Earl Thomas takes the deep middle and the Seahawks play 4 underneath. Seattle simply does not give up yards after the catch.
Denver is very good at running the pick routes but Seattle will not play as much man as they have in the past. Also the jump ball is tough to do on Seattle as their big corners with ball skills on the outside will negate some of Manning to D. Thomas throws. Denver, who had the greatest offense of all time, could test Seattle by lining up bunch formations and creating advantages on the outside. Denver is also very good at blocking screens and they will test that vs. Seattle. Seattle’s defense only had 8 passes thrown to the deep middle this season, the lowest in football. In 2012, they also had the lowest at 15. Manning was 16 for 23 for 472 yards with 5 tochdowns this year to that area. If he does go there, it will be to Julius Thomas. I can’t see Peyton with his mediocre arm doing this. If Denver is to win, they are going to have to drink and dunk down the field. When they get in the red zone, Seattle will come out of their Cover 3 and play man to man and Broncos will go towards their pick plays and runs. Denver in the red zone has average 5.9 points per trip (league average is 4.8). However, Seattle’s defenses allows 3.7 points. The game could come down to this.
link is http://grantland.com/features/the-official-super-bowl-preview/
footballoutsiders.com is also very good dvoa ratings are essential
discussion is welcome...i will be around all weekend..enjoy the game
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