Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 30
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Coaching
If you are focused on the individual star players of this series, then you are being misguided.
My argument is that, because of coaching, the Suns are in deep trouble despite having more (healthy) star players.
Before I get into the x's and o's of coaches, I want to talk about fundamental ways in which coaching affects sundry points in a given game.
Take the first quarter of Game 5 as an example. Los Angeles started the game with an 11-3 lead, which blossomed to a 14-3 lead.
It wasn't until 7:26 left in the first quarter, with the score 18-5 in L.A.'s favor, that Phoenix coach Monty Williams decided to call his first timeout.
We should even talk about the time preceding this initial 18-5 Clipper run.
When a team comes out flat -- at home, no less -- that is on the coach, who should prepare and motivate his team for the start of games.
Riding The Hot Hand
Another failure of Monty Williams is his repeated inability to make adjustments.
He is hell-bent on riding Devin Booker. True, Booker is arguably the most talented scorer on the court.
But it is an uncreative strategy to be monotonous and simply let Booker play hero ball and repeatedly attempt to drive inside, especially when he isn't managing to be inefficient.
In Game 5, while Booker attempted 22 shots and Chris Paul attempted 19 (plus 17 free throw attempts between the two), Cam Johnson only attempted six shots.
Cam has been superbly efficient this series. He is converting 70.6-percent of his field goals and 62.7-percent of his three-point attempts.
But I am fed up with Monty Williams also because he continues to place Cam on the periphery of Phoenix's offense.
In contrast, for Los Angeles, Marcus Morris received a huge uptick in both minutes and shot attempts as he was having his best game of the series.
Finally hot again, Morris understood to work for favorable match-up opportunities inside. He scored 22 points while being solidly efficient.
Small Ball
Clipper coach Tyronn Lue boasts several meaningful characteristics, like a stronger ability to have his team come out ready to play.
But largely because of Lue's tactical wisdom, the Clippers repeatedly find a recipe to turn around and win a playoff series.
It took time and a player injury (to Ivica Zubac), but Lue arrived at the small-ball focus that helped his team overcome two 2-0 series deficits in this year's playoffs.
Small ball continues to be great for L.A. for several reasons.
Five-out spacing, which positions five Clipper players behind the arc, opens up driving lanes for star Paul George and Marcus Morris.
With positive spacing, the Clippers take away an element that has made the Sun defense so good this year, which is team chemistry.
Because Clipper players are so well spaced out, Phoenix help defenders are too far removed from the ball and from the play to make a difference.
So they are left in isolation, one-on-one, against a Clipper offense that, as its latest 116-point scoring output shows, is a stronger one-on-one unit.
Tempo
While the Clipper offense is able to operate at its desired tempo, Phoenix is struggling to score -- the Suns haven't come close to reaching their scoring average since they exceeded it by .1 points in Game 1 -- because of tempo.
The team's offensive rating has dropped over 20 points since Cam Payne's role was reduced in favor of Chris Paul.
Paul does not push tempo like Payne does. So the Sun offense, which runs like an atavism from the dinosaur age, takes forever to get into its sets, which allows the Clipper defense to set itself up and prepare itself for sets that it has seen Phoenix run countless times in this long series.
The Verdict
With better coaching, an edge in small-ball and iso-heavy offense, and defensive preparedness against Phoenix's lethargic offense, the Clippers will win tonight.
For the above reasons, invest in L.A. Feel free to take the extra point simply because it's there at a low price.
Best Bet: Clippers +1 at -112 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Coaching
If you are focused on the individual star players of this series, then you are being misguided.
My argument is that, because of coaching, the Suns are in deep trouble despite having more (healthy) star players.
Before I get into the x's and o's of coaches, I want to talk about fundamental ways in which coaching affects sundry points in a given game.
Take the first quarter of Game 5 as an example. Los Angeles started the game with an 11-3 lead, which blossomed to a 14-3 lead.
It wasn't until 7:26 left in the first quarter, with the score 18-5 in L.A.'s favor, that Phoenix coach Monty Williams decided to call his first timeout.
We should even talk about the time preceding this initial 18-5 Clipper run.
When a team comes out flat -- at home, no less -- that is on the coach, who should prepare and motivate his team for the start of games.
Riding The Hot Hand
Another failure of Monty Williams is his repeated inability to make adjustments.
He is hell-bent on riding Devin Booker. True, Booker is arguably the most talented scorer on the court.
But it is an uncreative strategy to be monotonous and simply let Booker play hero ball and repeatedly attempt to drive inside, especially when he isn't managing to be inefficient.
In Game 5, while Booker attempted 22 shots and Chris Paul attempted 19 (plus 17 free throw attempts between the two), Cam Johnson only attempted six shots.
Cam has been superbly efficient this series. He is converting 70.6-percent of his field goals and 62.7-percent of his three-point attempts.
But I am fed up with Monty Williams also because he continues to place Cam on the periphery of Phoenix's offense.
In contrast, for Los Angeles, Marcus Morris received a huge uptick in both minutes and shot attempts as he was having his best game of the series.
Finally hot again, Morris understood to work for favorable match-up opportunities inside. He scored 22 points while being solidly efficient.
Small Ball
Clipper coach Tyronn Lue boasts several meaningful characteristics, like a stronger ability to have his team come out ready to play.
But largely because of Lue's tactical wisdom, the Clippers repeatedly find a recipe to turn around and win a playoff series.
It took time and a player injury (to Ivica Zubac), but Lue arrived at the small-ball focus that helped his team overcome two 2-0 series deficits in this year's playoffs.
Small ball continues to be great for L.A. for several reasons.
Five-out spacing, which positions five Clipper players behind the arc, opens up driving lanes for star Paul George and Marcus Morris.
With positive spacing, the Clippers take away an element that has made the Sun defense so good this year, which is team chemistry.
Because Clipper players are so well spaced out, Phoenix help defenders are too far removed from the ball and from the play to make a difference.
So they are left in isolation, one-on-one, against a Clipper offense that, as its latest 116-point scoring output shows, is a stronger one-on-one unit.
Tempo
While the Clipper offense is able to operate at its desired tempo, Phoenix is struggling to score -- the Suns haven't come close to reaching their scoring average since they exceeded it by .1 points in Game 1 -- because of tempo.
The team's offensive rating has dropped over 20 points since Cam Payne's role was reduced in favor of Chris Paul.
Paul does not push tempo like Payne does. So the Sun offense, which runs like an atavism from the dinosaur age, takes forever to get into its sets, which allows the Clipper defense to set itself up and prepare itself for sets that it has seen Phoenix run countless times in this long series.
The Verdict
With better coaching, an edge in small-ball and iso-heavy offense, and defensive preparedness against Phoenix's lethargic offense, the Clippers will win tonight.
For the above reasons, invest in L.A. Feel free to take the extra point simply because it's there at a low price.
Best Bet: Clippers +1 at -112 with BetOnline
