Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 24
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Staples Center in Los Angeles
Avoiding Emotions
A surefire way to lose in sports betting is to stray from reason and immerse yourself in emotions.
I get that the ending of Game 2 was intense and heated. it was controversial, too, for many reasons.
For starters, it looked like Deandre Ayton grabbed his opponent's jersey and shoved him into his teammate's screen, thus freeing himself for the game winning basket.
Plays like this and endings like this can arouse indignation, especially if you had invested in the Clippers money-line.
But just because, perhaps, from your perspective, Game 2 ended not as it should have, Game 3 is not going to be some kind of reparation where the Clippers bounce back and get the win that they "deserved."
Three-Point Shooting
In a sense, the Clippers have made this series closer than it deserves to be. I am not putting "deserve" in quotation marks again because I am not basing this word off of my subjective perception.
What I mean is that the Clippers have failed to win both Game 1 and Game 2 despite outpacing the Suns from behind the arc to a statistically unexpected degree.
In Game 1, the Clippers made seven more threes than Phoenix and converted three-point attempts with two-percent higher frequency. Nevertheless, they lost by six.
As for game 2, L.A. lost by one despite making seven more threes than the Suns and converting three-point attempts at a 15.1-percent higher rate.
This boost in the Clipper offense is unlikely to continue because it has depended on an element of variance that was unwarranted to expect.
Namely, through two games, Phoenix is converting 21.4-percent of its open three-point attempts.
This lack of inability to exploit good opportunities is unlikely to continue because the Suns are normally an efficient shooting team.
This season -- regular season and playoffs, included -- the Suns rank seventh in three-point percentage.
Chris Paul's Return
Point guard Chris Paul will return for the Suns in Game 3 -- his announced return explains the shift in the odds in Phoenix's favor.
Paul is one of the top assist-getters in NBA history because of his ability to create shots for others.
His distribution will help the Suns improve from behind the arc where they have several dangerous, normally efficient scorers like Mikal Bridges, who converted 42.5-perecent of his three-point attempts during the regular season, and star Devin Booker.
Deandre Ayton is one big who will benefit from Paul's passing.
Partly because the Clippers miss Serge Ibaka, Ayton has been hard to stop for the Clipper interior defense.
Ibaka's absence means a drop-off in depth and quality at the position. As a result, Ayton scored 20 points in Game 1 and 24 in Game 2.
Ayton possesses the offensive skill set that Jazz center Rudy Gobert lacked. Ayton has speed and mobility to bolster his rim-attacking prowess.
Mid-Range
Paul is also an expert at creating shots for himself. One way in which he'll create shots for himself is off screens.
Because the Clippers have to deal with Ayton and his offensive skill set, they have to go big. So they have to stray from the small-ball that helped them overcome the 2-0 series deficit in the last round against Utah.
As a result of going big, they are sacrificing minutes from shooting threat Nicolas Batum.
Defensively, they are less able to switch. Instead, they are opting to employ more drop coverage.
Drop coverage is something that Paul can attack. Paul will have room to pull up while the opposing big man is positioned closer to the basket.
As evident in the series with Denver and throughout his Hall-of-Fame career, Paul is famous for his efficiency from the mid-range. He will go to his spot and knock down mid-range jumpers.
I don't care how long Paul has been absent. He can execute a mid-range jumper in his sleep.
Depth
Cameron Payne -- Paul's back-up at point guard -- can still make a positive difference on the court.
With his proclivity to push tempo, Payne brings a change of pace relative to Paul's methodical style.
His 29-point performance in Game 2 was a reflection of L.A. defenders' struggles to keep him in front of them.
Payne's stronger pace allows him to beat his man off the dribble.
This is where the Clippers miss Kawhi, a reputedly strong defender who could shore up a Clipper defense that is often struggling to limit the extent of weapons that Phoenix has to offer offensively.
But Kawhi will not play in Game 3 as a result of his knee injury.
Best Bet: Suns ML at -120 at Bookmaker
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Staples Center in Los Angeles
Avoiding Emotions
A surefire way to lose in sports betting is to stray from reason and immerse yourself in emotions.
I get that the ending of Game 2 was intense and heated. it was controversial, too, for many reasons.
For starters, it looked like Deandre Ayton grabbed his opponent's jersey and shoved him into his teammate's screen, thus freeing himself for the game winning basket.
Plays like this and endings like this can arouse indignation, especially if you had invested in the Clippers money-line.
But just because, perhaps, from your perspective, Game 2 ended not as it should have, Game 3 is not going to be some kind of reparation where the Clippers bounce back and get the win that they "deserved."
Three-Point Shooting
In a sense, the Clippers have made this series closer than it deserves to be. I am not putting "deserve" in quotation marks again because I am not basing this word off of my subjective perception.
What I mean is that the Clippers have failed to win both Game 1 and Game 2 despite outpacing the Suns from behind the arc to a statistically unexpected degree.
In Game 1, the Clippers made seven more threes than Phoenix and converted three-point attempts with two-percent higher frequency. Nevertheless, they lost by six.
As for game 2, L.A. lost by one despite making seven more threes than the Suns and converting three-point attempts at a 15.1-percent higher rate.
This boost in the Clipper offense is unlikely to continue because it has depended on an element of variance that was unwarranted to expect.
Namely, through two games, Phoenix is converting 21.4-percent of its open three-point attempts.
This lack of inability to exploit good opportunities is unlikely to continue because the Suns are normally an efficient shooting team.
This season -- regular season and playoffs, included -- the Suns rank seventh in three-point percentage.
Chris Paul's Return
Point guard Chris Paul will return for the Suns in Game 3 -- his announced return explains the shift in the odds in Phoenix's favor.
Paul is one of the top assist-getters in NBA history because of his ability to create shots for others.
His distribution will help the Suns improve from behind the arc where they have several dangerous, normally efficient scorers like Mikal Bridges, who converted 42.5-perecent of his three-point attempts during the regular season, and star Devin Booker.
Deandre Ayton is one big who will benefit from Paul's passing.
Partly because the Clippers miss Serge Ibaka, Ayton has been hard to stop for the Clipper interior defense.
Ibaka's absence means a drop-off in depth and quality at the position. As a result, Ayton scored 20 points in Game 1 and 24 in Game 2.
Ayton possesses the offensive skill set that Jazz center Rudy Gobert lacked. Ayton has speed and mobility to bolster his rim-attacking prowess.
Mid-Range
Paul is also an expert at creating shots for himself. One way in which he'll create shots for himself is off screens.
Because the Clippers have to deal with Ayton and his offensive skill set, they have to go big. So they have to stray from the small-ball that helped them overcome the 2-0 series deficit in the last round against Utah.
As a result of going big, they are sacrificing minutes from shooting threat Nicolas Batum.
Defensively, they are less able to switch. Instead, they are opting to employ more drop coverage.
Drop coverage is something that Paul can attack. Paul will have room to pull up while the opposing big man is positioned closer to the basket.
As evident in the series with Denver and throughout his Hall-of-Fame career, Paul is famous for his efficiency from the mid-range. He will go to his spot and knock down mid-range jumpers.
I don't care how long Paul has been absent. He can execute a mid-range jumper in his sleep.
Depth
Cameron Payne -- Paul's back-up at point guard -- can still make a positive difference on the court.
With his proclivity to push tempo, Payne brings a change of pace relative to Paul's methodical style.
His 29-point performance in Game 2 was a reflection of L.A. defenders' struggles to keep him in front of them.
Payne's stronger pace allows him to beat his man off the dribble.
This is where the Clippers miss Kawhi, a reputedly strong defender who could shore up a Clipper defense that is often struggling to limit the extent of weapons that Phoenix has to offer offensively.
But Kawhi will not play in Game 3 as a result of his knee injury.
Best Bet: Suns ML at -120 at Bookmaker
