Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for July 20
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Giannis's Offense
In this series, Phoenix has failed to stop Giannis and has failed to limit Giannis without making critical defensive adjustments.
In measuring Giannis's game-by-game scoring outputs, Game 1 represents an exception because of his injured knee.
He was initially listed as 'doubtful' for that game and his participation in it came as a surprise. So he only scored 20 points.
But in Games 2 and 3, Giannis scored over 40 points. In other words, his best scoring outputs of this playoffs came in Phoenix and in Milwaukee against the Suns.
What impresses me most about Giannis's offense, though, is not those 40-point efforts.
Game 4, in which Giannis "only" scored 26 points, reflects a determined effort of the Sun defense to limit Giannis's offensive output.
The Suns did not play defense as they had been doing. Instead, they set upon building walls inside the paint, where Giannis does most of his scoring.
While Giannis scored fewer points, he still made a game-changing impact with the robustness of his offensive skillset.
In addition to being a top-level scorer, he became more of an opportunistic passer. In Game 4, he accrued 8 assists. Game 5 represented somewhat of a compromise as Giannis managed six assists and 32 points.
His ability to generate assists reveals a comfort that he persists when he isn't posting-up or executing in isos.
In the same vein, he likes to set screens for other important scorers like Khris Middleton.
Moreover, in Game 4, as he had been throughout the series, Giannis was a double-digit rebounder with many of his offensive rebounds leading to second-chance points and helping to contribute to Milwaukee's repeated dominance in shot/free throw attempts.
Three-Pointers
Giannis's inside prowess complements Milwaukee's scoring ability outside the arc.
After underachieving in their postseason three-point percentage relative to their season average, the Bucks are peaking at the right time.
For example, they converted 14 of their 28 three-point attempts in Game 5.
This high three-point conversion rate is likely to continue for two major reasons.
One, as a team, the Bucks shoot better at home. In the regular season and postseason combined, they convert 38 percent of their three-pointers at home compared to 36.9 percent on the road.
Two, they are successfully amassing favorable three-point shooting opportunities. In this series, Milwaukee is averaging 11.2 open three-point attempts per game as well as 16 wide open ones.
They can succeed to a unique degree from behind the arc in this series because they have the scoring threat at the basket that Phoenix lacks.
While Sun center Deandre Ayton has had bright moments at times, he just isn't a focal point of the offense. Even when he's dominated earlier in games against other teams this postseason, Phoenix has moved away from him later in the game.
Milwaukee, though, obviously has Giannis. He isn't the only threat at the basket, but he's certainly a major reason why the Bucks this series are converting 5.8 more field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop than the Suns.
Because Phoenix faces a stronger need to shore up its rim protection, it makes its perimeter defense more vulnerable and gives Milwaukee greater opportunity to develop an inside-out offense.
Among potential three-point maestros, Middleton is always the top candidate that people think of as a characteristically high-volume and efficient three-point shooter.
However, I want to highlight Pat Connaughton, who has gained more trust from Coach Budenholzer. He's accruing more minutes and taking more shots. In Games 4 and 5 combined, he's 7-of-13 from deep.
What Phoenix's Offense Lacks
Offensively, Phoenix lacks the same ability as the Bucks to count on multiple scorers.
It cannot develop such an inside-outside game as the Bucks because it lacks the same threat at the basket and doesn't like to attempt nearly as many threes per game as them.
The Suns want to thrive in the mid-range especially with Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
But Paul has struggled in this series like he hadn't in this year's postseason. In particular, he is turning the ball over more times per game.
NBA All-Defensive first-teamer Jrue Holiday is harassing Paul, relentlessly threatening to take the ball from him.
When Paul gets a switch off a ball-screen, Holiday maintains a presence which disturbs Paul's vision and which complements former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis's elite help-side defense.
Instead of relying as much on Paul and counting on sufficient support from Ayton and the oft passive Mikal Bridges, the Suns are relying too heavily on a single player, Devin Booker.
Booker's uptick in iso play frequency is consistent with Phoenix's uptick in the same.
This increasing reliance on Booker to score by himself makes the Sun offense more one-dimensional, more predictable, and more vulnerable to the transition scoring that the Bucks love ably more than most teams to engage in.
The Verdict
Not counting last year's exceptional Disney World playoffs, Game 6 favorites in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals enjoy 8-3 SU and ATS runs. These favorites have covered the spread by nearly 10 points on average.
The Bucks, with their more team-oriented and well-rounded offense and with top-level defenders like Holiday and Giannis, will cover the spread tonight as part of their championship-sealing win.
Best Bet: Bucks -4.5 at -108 with Heritage
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ABC) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Giannis's Offense
In this series, Phoenix has failed to stop Giannis and has failed to limit Giannis without making critical defensive adjustments.
In measuring Giannis's game-by-game scoring outputs, Game 1 represents an exception because of his injured knee.
He was initially listed as 'doubtful' for that game and his participation in it came as a surprise. So he only scored 20 points.
But in Games 2 and 3, Giannis scored over 40 points. In other words, his best scoring outputs of this playoffs came in Phoenix and in Milwaukee against the Suns.
What impresses me most about Giannis's offense, though, is not those 40-point efforts.
Game 4, in which Giannis "only" scored 26 points, reflects a determined effort of the Sun defense to limit Giannis's offensive output.
The Suns did not play defense as they had been doing. Instead, they set upon building walls inside the paint, where Giannis does most of his scoring.
While Giannis scored fewer points, he still made a game-changing impact with the robustness of his offensive skillset.
In addition to being a top-level scorer, he became more of an opportunistic passer. In Game 4, he accrued 8 assists. Game 5 represented somewhat of a compromise as Giannis managed six assists and 32 points.
His ability to generate assists reveals a comfort that he persists when he isn't posting-up or executing in isos.
In the same vein, he likes to set screens for other important scorers like Khris Middleton.
Moreover, in Game 4, as he had been throughout the series, Giannis was a double-digit rebounder with many of his offensive rebounds leading to second-chance points and helping to contribute to Milwaukee's repeated dominance in shot/free throw attempts.
Three-Pointers
Giannis's inside prowess complements Milwaukee's scoring ability outside the arc.
After underachieving in their postseason three-point percentage relative to their season average, the Bucks are peaking at the right time.
For example, they converted 14 of their 28 three-point attempts in Game 5.
This high three-point conversion rate is likely to continue for two major reasons.
One, as a team, the Bucks shoot better at home. In the regular season and postseason combined, they convert 38 percent of their three-pointers at home compared to 36.9 percent on the road.
Two, they are successfully amassing favorable three-point shooting opportunities. In this series, Milwaukee is averaging 11.2 open three-point attempts per game as well as 16 wide open ones.
They can succeed to a unique degree from behind the arc in this series because they have the scoring threat at the basket that Phoenix lacks.
While Sun center Deandre Ayton has had bright moments at times, he just isn't a focal point of the offense. Even when he's dominated earlier in games against other teams this postseason, Phoenix has moved away from him later in the game.
Milwaukee, though, obviously has Giannis. He isn't the only threat at the basket, but he's certainly a major reason why the Bucks this series are converting 5.8 more field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop than the Suns.
Because Phoenix faces a stronger need to shore up its rim protection, it makes its perimeter defense more vulnerable and gives Milwaukee greater opportunity to develop an inside-out offense.
Among potential three-point maestros, Middleton is always the top candidate that people think of as a characteristically high-volume and efficient three-point shooter.
However, I want to highlight Pat Connaughton, who has gained more trust from Coach Budenholzer. He's accruing more minutes and taking more shots. In Games 4 and 5 combined, he's 7-of-13 from deep.
What Phoenix's Offense Lacks
Offensively, Phoenix lacks the same ability as the Bucks to count on multiple scorers.
It cannot develop such an inside-outside game as the Bucks because it lacks the same threat at the basket and doesn't like to attempt nearly as many threes per game as them.
The Suns want to thrive in the mid-range especially with Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
But Paul has struggled in this series like he hadn't in this year's postseason. In particular, he is turning the ball over more times per game.
NBA All-Defensive first-teamer Jrue Holiday is harassing Paul, relentlessly threatening to take the ball from him.
When Paul gets a switch off a ball-screen, Holiday maintains a presence which disturbs Paul's vision and which complements former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis's elite help-side defense.
Instead of relying as much on Paul and counting on sufficient support from Ayton and the oft passive Mikal Bridges, the Suns are relying too heavily on a single player, Devin Booker.
Booker's uptick in iso play frequency is consistent with Phoenix's uptick in the same.
This increasing reliance on Booker to score by himself makes the Sun offense more one-dimensional, more predictable, and more vulnerable to the transition scoring that the Bucks love ably more than most teams to engage in.
The Verdict
Not counting last year's exceptional Disney World playoffs, Game 6 favorites in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals enjoy 8-3 SU and ATS runs. These favorites have covered the spread by nearly 10 points on average.
The Bucks, with their more team-oriented and well-rounded offense and with top-level defenders like Holiday and Giannis, will cover the spread tonight as part of their championship-sealing win.
Best Bet: Bucks -4.5 at -108 with Heritage
