NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
A Fortunate Injury
In these playoffs, switching to small ball has provided a boost to the entire Clipper team.
One example, prior to this series, came when the Clippers seemed to be down for the count against favored Utah, and then came back to dominate the series.
In this series, small ball didn't seem to be an option because Sun center Deandre Ayton -- particularly with his mobility and athleticism -- presents a different array of challenges than Jazz center Rudy Gobert.
But when Ivica Zubac failed to enter Game 5 as a result of a knee injury, L.A. had no other choice but to go back to small ball.
Small Ball
Small ball helps explain why the Clippers achieved their highest scoring output -- 116 -- in any game this series.
With all five players positioned behind the arc, the spacing was great for Clipper players, who thrived in one-on-one situations while the spacing made it difficult for Sun defenders to provide help because Sun help defenders were farther away from the ball.
Paul George has been at his best this postseason when he's more aggressive. Positive spacing made it easier for him to find open lanes and drive inside.
His 41-point effort is not a product of an anomalously strong three-point shooting performance. Instead, he found and exploited opportunities in isolation inside the arc.
Other players also stepped up. Marcus Morris was in a favorable match-up situation and the Clipper coach knew to give him more minutes (keep this point in mind as I will talk about coaching and player utilization in a bit).
Morris produced 22 points. Nicolas Batum also received a boost in minutes and his defense made the extra minutes pay off, as evident by the degree to which L.A. outscored Phoenix when Batum was with the rest of his team's starters instead of Terance Mann.
Defensively, Batum helped L.A. front Ayton, thus frequently preventing him from receiving the ball inside in the first place.
The Sun Revolves Around Booker
Ayton being unable to exploit the Clippers' small lineup is problematic for an offense that is missing help from a lethargic Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and a characteristically streaky Jae Crowder.
Some factors exist that curb the potential of Phoenix's supporting players.
One is the hero ball of Booker. To be fair, he should exploit a Clipper small ball unit against which he can hunt for the right match-up by inducing a switch.
He scored 31 points in Game 5, which hardly mattered. His inefficiency led to a lot of wasted possessions and his selfishness helped keep teammates from finding their groove.
When Slow Feels Lethargic
With Paul, Phoenix is slower. The drop in Phoenix's tempo this season relative to last season -- when Paul was not a Sun -- provides evidence of Paul's impact on the team's tempo.
Because Phoenix's offense is taking a long time to initiate an attack in the half-court, the Clipper defense is able to set itself up.
L.A. has now seen Phoenix repeatedly and is supported by its readiness for what the Suns will try to do.
Against the zone defense and other schemes that the Clipper defense would like to run, pace would therefore be helpful.
This is why Phoenix's offense has been more productive with backup point guard Cameron Payne. Unlike Paul, Payne like to push the tempo.
In the first two games when Payne attempted 10+ field goals, Phoenix's offensive rating was 120.4. In the other games, the games when Payne attempted fewer field goals, its offensive rating was 97.9.
This is what I wanted to allude to earlier: whereas the Clipper coach gives more minutes to guys like Morris who are doing well, Phoenix's coach doesn't utilize the right guys.
While Payne's injured ankle is hindering him anyways, Cam Johnson has been super efficient this series, but is hardly getting to attempt many shots.
Total Verdict
For all of the deficiencies in Phoenix's coach, one must assume that he'll try to make adjustments.
With Booker and with Cam Johnson, a healthier Payne, Bridges, and other sources of support, he has the personnel to produce a stronger scoring total against the Clipper defense.
Defensively, Phoenix cannot contain L.A.'s one-on-one, isolation-heavy offense, which thrives inside even if this normally top-level three-point shooting team is off from behind the arc. L.A. won game 5 -- and scored a series-high 116 points -- despite only making 10 of 30 three-point attempts.
With more offense from Phoenix and even more from L.A., the "over" will hit, in addition to the Clipper money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers ML at -105 & Over 215 at -108 at +276 odds with Heritage
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
A Fortunate Injury
In these playoffs, switching to small ball has provided a boost to the entire Clipper team.
One example, prior to this series, came when the Clippers seemed to be down for the count against favored Utah, and then came back to dominate the series.
In this series, small ball didn't seem to be an option because Sun center Deandre Ayton -- particularly with his mobility and athleticism -- presents a different array of challenges than Jazz center Rudy Gobert.
But when Ivica Zubac failed to enter Game 5 as a result of a knee injury, L.A. had no other choice but to go back to small ball.
Small Ball
Small ball helps explain why the Clippers achieved their highest scoring output -- 116 -- in any game this series.
With all five players positioned behind the arc, the spacing was great for Clipper players, who thrived in one-on-one situations while the spacing made it difficult for Sun defenders to provide help because Sun help defenders were farther away from the ball.
Paul George has been at his best this postseason when he's more aggressive. Positive spacing made it easier for him to find open lanes and drive inside.
His 41-point effort is not a product of an anomalously strong three-point shooting performance. Instead, he found and exploited opportunities in isolation inside the arc.
Other players also stepped up. Marcus Morris was in a favorable match-up situation and the Clipper coach knew to give him more minutes (keep this point in mind as I will talk about coaching and player utilization in a bit).
Morris produced 22 points. Nicolas Batum also received a boost in minutes and his defense made the extra minutes pay off, as evident by the degree to which L.A. outscored Phoenix when Batum was with the rest of his team's starters instead of Terance Mann.
Defensively, Batum helped L.A. front Ayton, thus frequently preventing him from receiving the ball inside in the first place.
The Sun Revolves Around Booker
Ayton being unable to exploit the Clippers' small lineup is problematic for an offense that is missing help from a lethargic Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and a characteristically streaky Jae Crowder.
Some factors exist that curb the potential of Phoenix's supporting players.
One is the hero ball of Booker. To be fair, he should exploit a Clipper small ball unit against which he can hunt for the right match-up by inducing a switch.
He scored 31 points in Game 5, which hardly mattered. His inefficiency led to a lot of wasted possessions and his selfishness helped keep teammates from finding their groove.
When Slow Feels Lethargic
With Paul, Phoenix is slower. The drop in Phoenix's tempo this season relative to last season -- when Paul was not a Sun -- provides evidence of Paul's impact on the team's tempo.
Because Phoenix's offense is taking a long time to initiate an attack in the half-court, the Clipper defense is able to set itself up.
L.A. has now seen Phoenix repeatedly and is supported by its readiness for what the Suns will try to do.
Against the zone defense and other schemes that the Clipper defense would like to run, pace would therefore be helpful.
This is why Phoenix's offense has been more productive with backup point guard Cameron Payne. Unlike Paul, Payne like to push the tempo.
In the first two games when Payne attempted 10+ field goals, Phoenix's offensive rating was 120.4. In the other games, the games when Payne attempted fewer field goals, its offensive rating was 97.9.
This is what I wanted to allude to earlier: whereas the Clipper coach gives more minutes to guys like Morris who are doing well, Phoenix's coach doesn't utilize the right guys.
While Payne's injured ankle is hindering him anyways, Cam Johnson has been super efficient this series, but is hardly getting to attempt many shots.
Total Verdict
For all of the deficiencies in Phoenix's coach, one must assume that he'll try to make adjustments.
With Booker and with Cam Johnson, a healthier Payne, Bridges, and other sources of support, he has the personnel to produce a stronger scoring total against the Clipper defense.
Defensively, Phoenix cannot contain L.A.'s one-on-one, isolation-heavy offense, which thrives inside even if this normally top-level three-point shooting team is off from behind the arc. L.A. won game 5 -- and scored a series-high 116 points -- despite only making 10 of 30 three-point attempts.
With more offense from Phoenix and even more from L.A., the "over" will hit, in addition to the Clipper money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers ML at -105 & Over 215 at -108 at +276 odds with Heritage
