CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
OK guess no one was interested in the UMPS yesterday, as it was the best sports day of the entire calendar year yesterday. So good stuff everywhere; made a boatload of $ on the Derby matchups and my only baseball bet was the ChiSox at that ridiculous price against that overpriced bum Lackey...
UMP PLAYS today, at least for me.... I don't readily have the percentages available so unless SY or Shorty pop in, I am going out on a limb with the guys who have done well in these spots consistently the last four years.
HOLBROOK in Atl. Nothing there. I took LA plus 115 small after the lineup changes for the Braves (no Chipper or McCann)...
YOUNG in Miami. He's 55-44 O/U and 28-19 NL only (60 percent) in that same time frame, since the start of 2004. Peavy continues to strike out the world but could have a tired arm to an extent with all the pitches he's throwing. Teams are combined 22-9 in home/away O/Us this year. OVER for me.
SCOTT in Chicago. Fairly neutral. Pass for me.
TIMMONS in Milwaukee. 40-58 O/U since 2004, and 14-26 in NL parks (35 percent) over the same span. Tough to go UNDER here for obvious pitching reasons but Armas can't be as bad as his start indicates. POPS's thread talks about going against the combined O/U ERA for pitchers through a good part of May, as the bad ones seem to level off and the overly good ones seem to go up. The combined 22 ERA here makes it easy to go UNDER 8.5.
BUCKNOR in St. Louis. If he's not in the club, he ought to be. 59-39 the last four years, but he REALLY makes hay in the NL parks, going OVER a sparkling 71 percent of the time (34-14 overall)... Sampson going good, and Looper just isn't as good as his April would indicate in my opinion. Houston/O parlay for me... and OVER for a pretty decent bet.
VANOVER in Cincinnati. Arroyo really going good right now and Fogg was decent last out after a rocky (pun semi-intended) first inning. UNDER worth a look but no real strong opinion either way. Stabbed at Reds RL, as they are 9-7 vs. RHPs and usually hit better at home in day games.
KNIGHT in Phoenix. 12-17 overall and 6-10 NL (38 percent OVER) last four years; small sample size. Pelfrey has been rotten though did pitch six shutout innings last time after a bad first, while Livan is Livan. Two teams are 11-17 in these spots to the total (Mets road/Zona home)... if the roof is closed, then UNDER might be the way to go.
REYNOLDS in Frisco tonight. He's pretty neutral according to O/U last four years. Lincecum the young phenom going tonight for Frisco against Cole Hamels, THEIR young phenom. With a fastball at 101 and a sparking 0.29 ERA in the minors, this kid is the real deal for SFO and you might not get this price on him again if he's as good as advertised up here. I went ahead and bit on the Giants and a Giants/U parlay, figuring Hamels might also want to prove his worth to a national crowd. But I would have no problem with people betting agianst these two young kids, especially Frisco's, and going Philly/O... Just not for me, not at that price. I made Philly 15 cent fave, and was able to take 25...
Back with AL momentarily...
UMP PLAYS today, at least for me.... I don't readily have the percentages available so unless SY or Shorty pop in, I am going out on a limb with the guys who have done well in these spots consistently the last four years.
HOLBROOK in Atl. Nothing there. I took LA plus 115 small after the lineup changes for the Braves (no Chipper or McCann)...
YOUNG in Miami. He's 55-44 O/U and 28-19 NL only (60 percent) in that same time frame, since the start of 2004. Peavy continues to strike out the world but could have a tired arm to an extent with all the pitches he's throwing. Teams are combined 22-9 in home/away O/Us this year. OVER for me.
SCOTT in Chicago. Fairly neutral. Pass for me.
TIMMONS in Milwaukee. 40-58 O/U since 2004, and 14-26 in NL parks (35 percent) over the same span. Tough to go UNDER here for obvious pitching reasons but Armas can't be as bad as his start indicates. POPS's thread talks about going against the combined O/U ERA for pitchers through a good part of May, as the bad ones seem to level off and the overly good ones seem to go up. The combined 22 ERA here makes it easy to go UNDER 8.5.
BUCKNOR in St. Louis. If he's not in the club, he ought to be. 59-39 the last four years, but he REALLY makes hay in the NL parks, going OVER a sparkling 71 percent of the time (34-14 overall)... Sampson going good, and Looper just isn't as good as his April would indicate in my opinion. Houston/O parlay for me... and OVER for a pretty decent bet.
VANOVER in Cincinnati. Arroyo really going good right now and Fogg was decent last out after a rocky (pun semi-intended) first inning. UNDER worth a look but no real strong opinion either way. Stabbed at Reds RL, as they are 9-7 vs. RHPs and usually hit better at home in day games.
KNIGHT in Phoenix. 12-17 overall and 6-10 NL (38 percent OVER) last four years; small sample size. Pelfrey has been rotten though did pitch six shutout innings last time after a bad first, while Livan is Livan. Two teams are 11-17 in these spots to the total (Mets road/Zona home)... if the roof is closed, then UNDER might be the way to go.
REYNOLDS in Frisco tonight. He's pretty neutral according to O/U last four years. Lincecum the young phenom going tonight for Frisco against Cole Hamels, THEIR young phenom. With a fastball at 101 and a sparking 0.29 ERA in the minors, this kid is the real deal for SFO and you might not get this price on him again if he's as good as advertised up here. I went ahead and bit on the Giants and a Giants/U parlay, figuring Hamels might also want to prove his worth to a national crowd. But I would have no problem with people betting agianst these two young kids, especially Frisco's, and going Philly/O... Just not for me, not at that price. I made Philly 15 cent fave, and was able to take 25...
Back with AL momentarily...
