Sunday's NFL Plays (Week Twelve)...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
22-21 (+5.70)

1-1 on Turkey Day.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots


The play...

Patriots -16.5 (3 units)

:popcorn:
 
Health as well brother and yes...GO BIRDS !!!...

KISS play.

Not about to step in front of the Pats here.

Meanwhile the Fins are coming to the realisation that they won't be playing playoff football.

Have this game lined right on the number.

The 'new' NFL doesn't have mercy for 15+ point road dogs like it used to pre-2012.

Pats a prolific 'streaker' both SU and ATS once they get a roll on.

Have a projected margin of victory for the Brady's of 25.2 points.

Other sims I run have the same MOV or thereabouts.
 
They're the top pick in the Westgate contest which has been a major fade this season and like 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 as road chalk.

So it's a no go for me.
I think last week the west gate picks went undefeated or did very well but yea this year they have been bad so I can dig it. Thanks!
 
I think last week the west gate picks went undefeated or did very well but yea this year they have been bad so I can dig it. Thanks!

Last week the top 5 picks went 3-2, for the season they're 20-35 ATS.

Panthers are a road fave off a bye though which is very solid.

Gun 2 the head it's Panthers for sure.
 
Home faves of 16 or more are 6-1 ATS last 7.

Home faves off a neutral site game are 7-1 ATS since the 2014 season.

Pats 7-3 ATS last 10 off a win of 20+ when favored at home by 14+.

Sub .500 teams are 0-7 ATS last 7 (since the 2014 season) when getting 14.5 points or more losing by an average of around 30 points.

A certain tout is on the Pats big though, smh.
 
Saints a prolific road dog though so will probably sit it out and focus on the Sunday night game unless I see something live.

Nawlins 13-5 ATS as a road dog past 3 seasons.

Situation definitely favors the Lambs.
 
adding...

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers

The play...

Steelers -13.5 (2 units)

:popcorn:
 
Another KISS play, no point trying to be 'sharp' and looking for reasons to back the fat dog.

Numbers and sims love the Steez here.

Indicating a beatdown.

Will drop some digits in a bit.
 
Looking like the entirety of 'Blankets' is on the Steelers.

That's bad for the soul.

Bettor beware with Pittsburgh.
 
Home faves of 7 or more off a Thursday game are 23-7 ATS since 2000.

Double-digit home faves in this spot are 12-1 ATS winning by an average of 18.2 points.

When favored by 13 or more they've gone 5-0 SU and ATS winning by an average margin of 20 points.

Since the 2015/16 season home faves of 13 or more have gone 16-3 ATS winning by an average margin of 19.9 points.

Steelers 6-0 SU and ATS last 6 SNF appearances winning by an average margin of 19.5 points.

Ran 50 simulations on this game and the average margin of victory was Pittsburgh by 17.2 points.

Rodgers worth 10+ points to any spread. Hundley is ass.
 
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