CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Pretty good Saturday. 6-3-1 on straights and hit both of the parlays. The KC/O paid 5-to-1 and with the Dodgers/O winner, that was like going 13-3-1 or so on the day if everything were flat bets...
ESPY day for this Sunday card. Great news for the people working in the stores down here, as everyone gets off at 4 p.m. local time. As for me, I'm leaving the shop after the 2:00 Eastern games, hahaha... Let everyone else handle the last five games; can't be that difficult...
Not a big fan of betting sides this quickly after the break. Read yesterday's thread for details but usually I like to take 3-4 days before I hop back into that water. Was lucky to hit correlated parlays with Dodgers/O and Royals/O yesterday but don't think that I'm interested in plowing into 8-9 sides just yet.
Got a clubber going in Miami. The daytime OVERS in Marlin home games nowhere near as strong as they are at night. With the exception of three starts where he's given up 21 runs, Simontacchi has pitched well, so his ERA doesn't tell the truth, necessarily. Olson had back spasms last out and has thrown second-most innings on the team but the Fish pen should be rested after Sergio's win tonight.
WASH/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105
Maholm had a very good second half last season, and he's been reverting to that form lately because his sinker has been down in the zone more regularly, as evidenced by the high number of groundouts he has induced. He's gone seven inning in five straight starts and allowed two runs over seven innings in his only start against the Braves. Carlyle has surrendered just four earned runs and worked 18 innings since the Red Sox beat him up a month ago. His aggressiveness will serve him well against the light-hitting 'Rats. In his last start, he worked a career-high eight innings and limited the Padres to three runs. Getaway Day with neutral ump...
PIT/ATL UNDER 9.5 -110
Reds are worst team in NL, record-wise, but I don't see them being that bad. This is a prime spot to get on them, where they are catching a great price against a pitcher coming off the disabled list. Lohse, on the other hand, appears to have perhaps turned the corner. He's given up just one run in each of his last two starts, and went the distance last time out. If he can get out of the first two innings without much trouble, look out. I give the Reds about a 50/50 shot here, so this is going to be my only decent-sized side of the day for me.
Reds plus 175
Cub no total yet. No opinion on the side. Wandy 16 straight scoreless, but take it on the road, brah.... And Marq has 1 win in his last 11 starts. Let's wait to see the wind and see if I feel like gamblin'...
The totals guy at the shop makes the Dodger/Frisco total higher, and that scares me to go against him. The first two games went over, and while the Dodgers had to get six in the ninth to get it there on Friday, the fact is that they had 17 hits both days and Frisco had DD's in both games, too. Tomko is a turd and I am very surprised they didn't make this higher than 9. I was looking under but I only made it 8.5 under -115 and was looking to go under 9.5 flat... Lowry's home ERA is 2.45. Tough to tell whether Bonds will play or not. As much as Tomko has struggled, he's 2-0 in UNDERS with Miller behind the plate. An interesting stat about Miller, who is usually close to neutral: the last nine Dodger games with him behind the dish (from 2003-2006) all went UNDER the total. Take that for what it's worth. Pass.
Hallion (63.4 percent strikes) is behind the plate in the desert, where the roof will be closed again. That should inhibit scoring. I'm not a big fan of either pitcher. Germano is going the wrong way and Webb is overrated and overhyped. But a closer look at Hallion's record shows it might be deceiving. He's 9-7 O/U this season, but five of the last six have gone over... however, only one of those was an NL game (rest IL or AL)... and two of his last three NL games have gone under. With the lower total and on a hot getaway day, look for this one to end quickly (especially since it starts so gotdamn late). This will likely be my biggest play...
SDG/ARZ UNDER 8.5 -120
Night game (if you will; as this one should end before total darkness in Philly) really puts me in the head-vice. Both of the first two went flying over and I was on the right side of both. Cards are apathetic at best at this point, with only shitty Philly pitching helping them score at all. But you get Jimmy Wolf behind the plate - he of the 64.5 percent strikes and official club member (5-12 O/U in 2007, by the way)... And the pitchers seem worth a small stab at, as well, as Eaton only seems to do well enough to win (look at 8 wins despite that ERA). He lasted six innings for the third consecutive start last time out (though that was his first win in almost a month)... And Wainwright has been about the only reliable member in the Cardinal rotation, with nine quality starts under his belt. It's no fun to root for the umps and outs, but.....
STL/PHI UNDER 10 plus 105
Day game in Baltimore, with two abysmal pens (see Chicago's Saturday)... and two starters struggling. This is a rematch of a 9-6 Baltimore victory on the south side 11 days back. The Cuban is going through, in my mind, THE worst stretch of his career. His ERA is 6.85 in his last six starts; he has just one win in that span... and at Camden Yards, he is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. Olson had a four-run lead in that prior game with one on and one out in the fifth. But Trembley decided to pull him two outs shy of qualifying for a win. Olson had thrown 87 pitches, yielding two runs on five hits and five walks, and the meat of Chicago's order was coming. Ump won't hurt our effort, either.
CWS/BAL OVER 9.5 even
Yankee/Tampa games are always fun to bet OVER; Saturday's game was no exception for those who went over 9.5... this one should be difficult if Jackson finally pitches up to his talent level. But who am I or you to decide when that happens? A closer look shows Bucknor behind the dish. Some of you guys might remember CB as a New York fan from his May 23
performance behind the plate, where he literally "punched-out" two Boston hitters in the 9th of an 8-3 Jankee win. CB has had a smattering of decisions since then but a couple of things stand out. His last two Jank games - OVER... Last three Tampon games - OVER... And he's 3-0
to the OVER with Moose as a starter, and 1-0 OVER with Jackson as a starter. That game was when Odalis and KC came in and stomped Jackson 9-4 last month. Janks/O parlay sure looks too easy, but I'll take a stab.
NYY -1.5 runs -125....
OVER 10.5 -105 .....
2 team parlay with NYY -180/OVER 10.5
Bill Welke, a former clubber (one on the cusp of being back in, by the way), is in Boston. His 64.3 percentage and 9-9 record doesn't qualify but you have to think the UNDERS are coming soon. However, after taking one in the poop-chute Saturday with two better pitchers (in my humble opinion), I'mma take a pass here. You can be sure the Jays want to get back within 10 games rather than trail by 12 (manager fighting for job?) so they will be full strength and I don't want to make a day game in that bandbox stay under. Pass.
I was fortunate to get off the "A-Train" just before it de-railed there in mid-to-late June. Things haven't gotten better in the last 3 weeks, as they have played superior pitching and competition. I expect Oakland to make a rally sometime soon if some of these guys get healthy. Perhaps it starts with the best pitcher from start-to-now in 2007, in Dan Haren. This guy has made me lots of cash and I expect him to be the "stopper" to this ugly six game streak against Boof the Goof. They just need to give him a little support. Gotta love the price (if you can stomach betting a team on a losing streak vs. a team that's winning).
Oakland -112
Zoolander and Weaver both are running good at this point. Zoo struck out seven over seven innings and won his 10th game on July 5th, and is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners. Weaver has been varying his speeds and arm angles, giving up just two earned runs in six appearances and going 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA since coming off the D.L. That said, I cannot bet UNDER when a guy I respect with the totals makes the game a full 1.5 runs higher than the posted total. UMP (Knight) is neutral on paper, but this is his first-ever game with Detroit (behind the plate) and there have been some very questionable calls go against the Tigers in the first three games of this series (one of them cost them in a 3-2 loss Friday)... Pass.
That's it, ladies and germs...
GL today!
:cheers:
ESPY day for this Sunday card. Great news for the people working in the stores down here, as everyone gets off at 4 p.m. local time. As for me, I'm leaving the shop after the 2:00 Eastern games, hahaha... Let everyone else handle the last five games; can't be that difficult...
Not a big fan of betting sides this quickly after the break. Read yesterday's thread for details but usually I like to take 3-4 days before I hop back into that water. Was lucky to hit correlated parlays with Dodgers/O and Royals/O yesterday but don't think that I'm interested in plowing into 8-9 sides just yet.
Got a clubber going in Miami. The daytime OVERS in Marlin home games nowhere near as strong as they are at night. With the exception of three starts where he's given up 21 runs, Simontacchi has pitched well, so his ERA doesn't tell the truth, necessarily. Olson had back spasms last out and has thrown second-most innings on the team but the Fish pen should be rested after Sergio's win tonight.
WASH/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105
Maholm had a very good second half last season, and he's been reverting to that form lately because his sinker has been down in the zone more regularly, as evidenced by the high number of groundouts he has induced. He's gone seven inning in five straight starts and allowed two runs over seven innings in his only start against the Braves. Carlyle has surrendered just four earned runs and worked 18 innings since the Red Sox beat him up a month ago. His aggressiveness will serve him well against the light-hitting 'Rats. In his last start, he worked a career-high eight innings and limited the Padres to three runs. Getaway Day with neutral ump...
PIT/ATL UNDER 9.5 -110
Reds are worst team in NL, record-wise, but I don't see them being that bad. This is a prime spot to get on them, where they are catching a great price against a pitcher coming off the disabled list. Lohse, on the other hand, appears to have perhaps turned the corner. He's given up just one run in each of his last two starts, and went the distance last time out. If he can get out of the first two innings without much trouble, look out. I give the Reds about a 50/50 shot here, so this is going to be my only decent-sized side of the day for me.
Reds plus 175
Cub no total yet. No opinion on the side. Wandy 16 straight scoreless, but take it on the road, brah.... And Marq has 1 win in his last 11 starts. Let's wait to see the wind and see if I feel like gamblin'...
The totals guy at the shop makes the Dodger/Frisco total higher, and that scares me to go against him. The first two games went over, and while the Dodgers had to get six in the ninth to get it there on Friday, the fact is that they had 17 hits both days and Frisco had DD's in both games, too. Tomko is a turd and I am very surprised they didn't make this higher than 9. I was looking under but I only made it 8.5 under -115 and was looking to go under 9.5 flat... Lowry's home ERA is 2.45. Tough to tell whether Bonds will play or not. As much as Tomko has struggled, he's 2-0 in UNDERS with Miller behind the plate. An interesting stat about Miller, who is usually close to neutral: the last nine Dodger games with him behind the dish (from 2003-2006) all went UNDER the total. Take that for what it's worth. Pass.
Hallion (63.4 percent strikes) is behind the plate in the desert, where the roof will be closed again. That should inhibit scoring. I'm not a big fan of either pitcher. Germano is going the wrong way and Webb is overrated and overhyped. But a closer look at Hallion's record shows it might be deceiving. He's 9-7 O/U this season, but five of the last six have gone over... however, only one of those was an NL game (rest IL or AL)... and two of his last three NL games have gone under. With the lower total and on a hot getaway day, look for this one to end quickly (especially since it starts so gotdamn late). This will likely be my biggest play...
SDG/ARZ UNDER 8.5 -120
Night game (if you will; as this one should end before total darkness in Philly) really puts me in the head-vice. Both of the first two went flying over and I was on the right side of both. Cards are apathetic at best at this point, with only shitty Philly pitching helping them score at all. But you get Jimmy Wolf behind the plate - he of the 64.5 percent strikes and official club member (5-12 O/U in 2007, by the way)... And the pitchers seem worth a small stab at, as well, as Eaton only seems to do well enough to win (look at 8 wins despite that ERA). He lasted six innings for the third consecutive start last time out (though that was his first win in almost a month)... And Wainwright has been about the only reliable member in the Cardinal rotation, with nine quality starts under his belt. It's no fun to root for the umps and outs, but.....
STL/PHI UNDER 10 plus 105
Day game in Baltimore, with two abysmal pens (see Chicago's Saturday)... and two starters struggling. This is a rematch of a 9-6 Baltimore victory on the south side 11 days back. The Cuban is going through, in my mind, THE worst stretch of his career. His ERA is 6.85 in his last six starts; he has just one win in that span... and at Camden Yards, he is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. Olson had a four-run lead in that prior game with one on and one out in the fifth. But Trembley decided to pull him two outs shy of qualifying for a win. Olson had thrown 87 pitches, yielding two runs on five hits and five walks, and the meat of Chicago's order was coming. Ump won't hurt our effort, either.
CWS/BAL OVER 9.5 even
Yankee/Tampa games are always fun to bet OVER; Saturday's game was no exception for those who went over 9.5... this one should be difficult if Jackson finally pitches up to his talent level. But who am I or you to decide when that happens? A closer look shows Bucknor behind the dish. Some of you guys might remember CB as a New York fan from his May 23
performance behind the plate, where he literally "punched-out" two Boston hitters in the 9th of an 8-3 Jankee win. CB has had a smattering of decisions since then but a couple of things stand out. His last two Jank games - OVER... Last three Tampon games - OVER... And he's 3-0
to the OVER with Moose as a starter, and 1-0 OVER with Jackson as a starter. That game was when Odalis and KC came in and stomped Jackson 9-4 last month. Janks/O parlay sure looks too easy, but I'll take a stab.
NYY -1.5 runs -125....
OVER 10.5 -105 .....
2 team parlay with NYY -180/OVER 10.5
Bill Welke, a former clubber (one on the cusp of being back in, by the way), is in Boston. His 64.3 percentage and 9-9 record doesn't qualify but you have to think the UNDERS are coming soon. However, after taking one in the poop-chute Saturday with two better pitchers (in my humble opinion), I'mma take a pass here. You can be sure the Jays want to get back within 10 games rather than trail by 12 (manager fighting for job?) so they will be full strength and I don't want to make a day game in that bandbox stay under. Pass.
I was fortunate to get off the "A-Train" just before it de-railed there in mid-to-late June. Things haven't gotten better in the last 3 weeks, as they have played superior pitching and competition. I expect Oakland to make a rally sometime soon if some of these guys get healthy. Perhaps it starts with the best pitcher from start-to-now in 2007, in Dan Haren. This guy has made me lots of cash and I expect him to be the "stopper" to this ugly six game streak against Boof the Goof. They just need to give him a little support. Gotta love the price (if you can stomach betting a team on a losing streak vs. a team that's winning).
Oakland -112
Zoolander and Weaver both are running good at this point. Zoo struck out seven over seven innings and won his 10th game on July 5th, and is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners. Weaver has been varying his speeds and arm angles, giving up just two earned runs in six appearances and going 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA since coming off the D.L. That said, I cannot bet UNDER when a guy I respect with the totals makes the game a full 1.5 runs higher than the posted total. UMP (Knight) is neutral on paper, but this is his first-ever game with Detroit (behind the plate) and there have been some very questionable calls go against the Tigers in the first three games of this series (one of them cost them in a 3-2 loss Friday)... Pass.
That's it, ladies and germs...
GL today!
:cheers:
