Sunday

165yds

Pretty much a regular
Detroit is in the worst spot of any team today. Day off tomorrow after a six game roadie which is the problem. Days off during the year are more valuable than diamonds to a major leaguer because you get so few of them. Watch how fast this game is played and quick swings in the count you see from Detroit today. If they were home it might be different but they can't wait to get this game over and get back home and enjoy their day off. No team takes games off like Detroit, they're so talented they can pull off six or seven in a row but today they lay down. You guys like Porcello a lot more than me, he's an average pitcher his whole career having a career year and those number will regress while Santiago has pitched better than his numbers suggest. This is usually where managers like to give their starters a rest and give them two days off. Wouldn't be surprised to see some regulars out of the line up.

The Tigers team is 11-71 (.154) lifetime against Santiago. I usually need 20 at bats to take these numbers seriously but there isn't one Tiger hitter that has had any type of success against him.

Jackson 2-16
Hunter 2-10
Martinez 2-11
Cabrera 0-7 and on and on and on.

Not going to get into it but a much bigger sample size against Porcello with Angel bats and they have very good success hitting him.

Big Four 21-62, only guy who doesn't hit Porcello is Aybar 4-21.

Angels -105 4 units


I like Greene and he has decent stuff but if you are good you don't get to the majors at 25 or 26. Toronto does well against righties even without Ency. Yanks continue to struggle on offense doing it with mirrors and a great bullpen. If they aren't leading after 7 innings they don't win. Think Greene gets hit and starts to get exposed a bit. Not worried about Happ the Yanks make everybody look good. If you don't follow this team I don't think you realize just how bad the line up really is.

Jays +128 2 units

That's it for now. Gotta study more but those two jumped out to me. Pretty sure I'll be on Seattle and Cincy. Going to the gym now and run some errands.
 
I hate doing this but bought out of Yanks game because games I like way more. Too much conflicting data and with the line drop don't have to pay juice.
 
Seattle -108

2 units

I like the O's team because they are a gritty group but they are now at a high water mark and time for them to regress. Nobody in the AL East is running away with anything. For the past 20 years it's been the best division in baseball but now one of the weakest. Will be looking at fading Balty hard the next 10 games as they move closer to 5 games over with the rest of the division. Their starting pitching still isn't that good and the pen isn't exactly shut down. Again another team with a day off tomorrow after a long West Coast swing. Should see plenty of quick at bats swinging early in the count to get home. It's been a long 10 game road trip and at 5-4 they'll be more than happy to get off the West Coast at 5-5 which is what their goal is. They'll be content.
 
I don't see the logic in taking the RSox. Baseball is a game of streaks more so than any other sport and smart people have been riding this wave the whole time. Not only a 9 game winning streak but 9-0 on the RL. At +150 it's worth a shot. RSox have a ton of issues and don't see them getting resolved against the hottest team in MLB. I'm shocked to see so many on the Sox, I guess value hunters see something there, I don't.

TB -1.5 +150

2 units

Another game I knew would drop heavy was the Mets. That was a very strong line and feels like a sucker bet, really really want to take the Brewers. Mets were cruising 2-0 last night and with 2 outs they gave up the lead because of two bad plays on defense that won't show up on the boxscore. That's a game they should have won but they are so bad defensively. What's not to like about DeGromm or his numbers but have such a strong feeling they get rolled today.
 
Texas +1.5 +110

3 units

Usually go 2 units but this warrants another unit.

In short Kaz can't be trusted laying a huge number. He's struggled this year in this spot. When laying over -190 he's 1-2 SU and 0-3 against the RL. This number is out of control.
 
A's are only 7-6 last 13 SU and getting +$ on a RL is rare in MLB.

Wouldn't be the least bit surprised at a Texas win. Not enough time to go into detail.
 
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