NBA Money Line Upset Alert: Crown The Kings Against Visiting Boston
Boston vs Sacramento
Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Boston as four-point favorites. The spread currently sits at 2.5. Sacramento is enjoying a six-game cover streak. It’s also on a 4-2 ATS run which includes two straight-up wins when dogged by less than five points.
Sacramento Is Getting Defensive
To go along with their cover streak, the Kings have won four of their last six games. Their last two games have arguably been more impressive — a win against guard-heavy Portland and very much a near-win in Los Angeles against an extremely hot Laker squad.
Luke Walton promised pace for this year’s Sacramento. But lately, the Kings have been slowing things down, as measured by their reduction in pace.
In Sacramento’s most recent two games, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bogdan Bogdanovic have yielded very positive defensive ratings and Richaun Holmes, a reputed shot-blocker and pick-and-roll defender, has also contributed defensively.
De’Aaron Fox’s injury has allowed other guards to step up. Yogi Ferrell is a small but pesky defender who has seen an uptake in minutes. Opponents convert only 41.9 percent of their shot attempts when guarded by Ferrell.
Also, Cory Joseph is reputed as a solid defender based on his defensive rating last year. He measurably improved Indiana’s defense by being on the court.
In particular, he thrived against the pick-and-roll ball handler, which Boston executes a ton of — currently eighth most as measured by frequency. He’s also excelled in limiting the opponent from behind the arc. Opposing PPP (points per possession) stats attest to both of his strengths.
As a team, the strength of Sacramento's personnel in defending the pick-and-roll ball handler was evident against Portland, which executes this play type with the second-highest frequency and does so well with the likes of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Overall, Sacramento’s defensive rating is fifth-best in the past couple games despite facing a couple of the league’s higher-scoring teams. Both L.A. and Portland only managed 99 points.
What Sacramento Can Do Offensively
While the Kings’ defense has been improving, Boston’s defense has looked relatively weak lately as measured by its worsened defensive rating. While the Celtics are still surviving scares, they still had to scrape by Washington and then Golden State.
In multiple ways, Sacramento matches up well with the Celtics. The Kings run, for starters, a fair amount of iso, which the Celtics are below average in defending.
Hield and Bogdanovic are among King players who rank in the upper-50 percent in isolation as they are good about creating their own shot.
Both players are important as three-point shooters. Boston’s perimeter defense ranks in the lower half based on opposing three-point attempts. The Celtics used to have more players who were adept in this regard.
But now they lean overwhelmingly on Marcus Smart and there’s only so much that one player can do. As a team, the Celtics allow the sixth-highest frequency of open (with the nearest defender 4-6 feet removed from the shooter) three-point attempts.
On the other side, the Kings are seventh-best at generating open threes. Hield is extremely high-volume as he has so many ways of getting open.
Hield loves to use his pace like by pushing the ball in transition. Hield also loves to speedily curl around defenders. Like Bogdanovic, he also executes a swift step-back.
While Joseph is always known for his defense, Hield is a guard with massive scoring potential. Since facing an elite Utah defense, he’s 21-51 (41.1%) from three.
Bogdanovic is also making over half of his three-point attempts in November as is Nemanja Bjelica, who’s once again enjoying a strong start to his season. He also creates important spacing as a stretch four.
Conclusion
One team is playing very good defense lately and that’s Sacramento. As is most recently evident, the Kings have the personnel to limit Boston’s pick-and-roll game. On offense, they boast numerous options behind the arc and can also thrive in isolation.
Best Bet: Kings ML at +131 odds with Pinnacle
Boston vs Sacramento
Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Boston as four-point favorites. The spread currently sits at 2.5. Sacramento is enjoying a six-game cover streak. It’s also on a 4-2 ATS run which includes two straight-up wins when dogged by less than five points.
Sacramento Is Getting Defensive
To go along with their cover streak, the Kings have won four of their last six games. Their last two games have arguably been more impressive — a win against guard-heavy Portland and very much a near-win in Los Angeles against an extremely hot Laker squad.
Luke Walton promised pace for this year’s Sacramento. But lately, the Kings have been slowing things down, as measured by their reduction in pace.
In Sacramento’s most recent two games, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bogdan Bogdanovic have yielded very positive defensive ratings and Richaun Holmes, a reputed shot-blocker and pick-and-roll defender, has also contributed defensively.
De’Aaron Fox’s injury has allowed other guards to step up. Yogi Ferrell is a small but pesky defender who has seen an uptake in minutes. Opponents convert only 41.9 percent of their shot attempts when guarded by Ferrell.
Also, Cory Joseph is reputed as a solid defender based on his defensive rating last year. He measurably improved Indiana’s defense by being on the court.
In particular, he thrived against the pick-and-roll ball handler, which Boston executes a ton of — currently eighth most as measured by frequency. He’s also excelled in limiting the opponent from behind the arc. Opposing PPP (points per possession) stats attest to both of his strengths.
As a team, the strength of Sacramento's personnel in defending the pick-and-roll ball handler was evident against Portland, which executes this play type with the second-highest frequency and does so well with the likes of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Overall, Sacramento’s defensive rating is fifth-best in the past couple games despite facing a couple of the league’s higher-scoring teams. Both L.A. and Portland only managed 99 points.
What Sacramento Can Do Offensively
While the Kings’ defense has been improving, Boston’s defense has looked relatively weak lately as measured by its worsened defensive rating. While the Celtics are still surviving scares, they still had to scrape by Washington and then Golden State.
In multiple ways, Sacramento matches up well with the Celtics. The Kings run, for starters, a fair amount of iso, which the Celtics are below average in defending.
Hield and Bogdanovic are among King players who rank in the upper-50 percent in isolation as they are good about creating their own shot.
Both players are important as three-point shooters. Boston’s perimeter defense ranks in the lower half based on opposing three-point attempts. The Celtics used to have more players who were adept in this regard.
But now they lean overwhelmingly on Marcus Smart and there’s only so much that one player can do. As a team, the Celtics allow the sixth-highest frequency of open (with the nearest defender 4-6 feet removed from the shooter) three-point attempts.
On the other side, the Kings are seventh-best at generating open threes. Hield is extremely high-volume as he has so many ways of getting open.
Hield loves to use his pace like by pushing the ball in transition. Hield also loves to speedily curl around defenders. Like Bogdanovic, he also executes a swift step-back.
While Joseph is always known for his defense, Hield is a guard with massive scoring potential. Since facing an elite Utah defense, he’s 21-51 (41.1%) from three.
Bogdanovic is also making over half of his three-point attempts in November as is Nemanja Bjelica, who’s once again enjoying a strong start to his season. He also creates important spacing as a stretch four.
Conclusion
One team is playing very good defense lately and that’s Sacramento. As is most recently evident, the Kings have the personnel to limit Boston’s pick-and-roll game. On offense, they boast numerous options behind the arc and can also thrive in isolation.
Best Bet: Kings ML at +131 odds with Pinnacle
