Sunday try to beat Neil Walker with a fastball Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from the BOL open:
ARI +125
MIA u6.5 -120
HOU +101
NYY +124
KC -117
DET +147
SEA -111
TEX -125


on the radar:
CLE u7 -130
 
updated leans:
DET +134


on the radar:
ARI +104
LAA +108

...may just head into the break as i don't like any of these
 
I like McCullers today. He is a Tampa native and a good day pitcher. Moore has struggled since coming off the DL and Hou has a big bullpen advantage. Also like under as Hou simply can't hit right now and are limping into the A-S break.
 
Like the salami under as well. Lots of quality starting pitching today and last day before the break.
 
Will find a way to play SF. Billingsley coming off an emotional win in LA and can't imagine a team thinking more about the break that Phils.
 
Dbacks just saw Niese last month and Niese has not been good in day games (0-2 7.20) - Niese is serviceable, but should look good to Arz after having to face Harvey/Syder
 
Dbacks just saw Niese last month and Niese has not been good in day games (0-2 7.20) - Niese is serviceable, but should look good to Arz after having to face Harvey/Syder

Niese has been great since getting put on the trading block, ARI is a team i want to fade in the 2H but they do have a deeper lineup than NYM

LAD F5. BA gets lots of quality starts and Lohse is good for 3-4 every game.

can't disagree

I like McCullers today. He is a Tampa native and a good day pitcher. Moore has struggled since coming off the DL and Hou has a big bullpen advantage. Also like under as Hou simply can't hit right now and are limping into the A-S break.

pricey for a road team leaking oil going into the break against a great home team
 
Price on Klubes has spiked in the last hour, don't really see anything unusual about the line-ups … was warming up to the Tribe at -115 or so, not so sure now.
 
Butler not exactly a price changer these days. Although he did get the big knock last night.
 
Some player props for today:

Sandoval hits Eovaldi at a .700+ clip (12/17)......took over 2 R/H/RBI

Also guys with great numbers today...Adam Jones v Scherz, A Gonz v Lohse, Posey & Pence v. Billingsley.
 
NZ payTV will feature the ESPN Sunday nighter. On the season as a whole, NZ payTV games have gone 42-21-4 to Under (31.3% payout rate for the Over). The real split of note is what league rules the game featured has been played under...

AL ruled games have gone 13-11-1 to Under
NL ruled games have gone 29-10-3 to Under (the last 16 of these have gone 14-2 to Under).

I decided to dig into that rather sizable NL mark and I belatedly found the key to all this Under BS. There are 3 culprits: the Mets, the Cubs & the Cardinals. These 3 teams have combined to produce a 21-4-2 Under mark out of the overall 42-21-4 mark (games involving any of those 3 teams playing the other I made sure not to count twice). That means games not involving any of those 3 teams have manifested a far more normal looking 21-17-1 to Under season record.

The Mets have fashioned a 9-1-1 Under mark when featured on NZ payTV, so they're actually an Over team - o/u 38-35-4 - when they've escaped exposure Down Under.

The Cubs have fashioned a 9-2-1 Under mark when featured on NZ payTV, so they're barely an Under team - o/u 33-36-6 - when they've escaped exposure Down Under.

The Cards have fashioned a 9-3-1 Under mark when featured on NZ payTV, so while they've still got a solid Under record - o/u 31-42-3 - when they've escaped exposure Down Under, it's still not as bad when such games are included.


The point, of course, is the Cards feature as one of the 2 teams in the ESPN Sun. nighter. Fwiw: ESPN Sun. night games not featuring the Yankees have gone 9-1 to Under this season (with not a single one totaling between 7-11 runs).
 
Liriano has great history with the ump. Terrible problems winning at night. Pitt under in last game of a home stand has been sheer money but both teams have awesome Sunday records that scare me. I guess I hit the under.
 
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