NFL Trio of Totals
Solidify your Sunday betting card with three total plays. All three games begin at 1:00 ET.
Browns vs Steelers (O/U 46.5 Points)
The Browns struggled offensively last season because, one, they didn't run the ball enough and two, they couldn't consistently rely on a single quarterback which meant that there was usually a low-quality quarterback and very little chemistry between him and his receiving corps.
This year will be different. The Browns invested the most money during the off-season into their offensive line, including the top-ranked guard. Their biggest problem was finding a center and they acquired a veteran center. Future Hall of Fame Left Tackle Joe Thomas is fully healthy.
Protection is huge because it will allow Isaiah Crowell, whose 4.8 yards per carry last season shows promise, and the versatile, high-speed backup Duke Johnson, to establish the run against a sub-par Steelers rush defense (19th last season) that will sorely miss linebacker Lawrence Timmons. Protection will also allow DeShone Kizer to indulge in his favorite activity: the deep-ball. Corey Coleman is an underrated stud with blazing sub 4.40 speed and is as much a deep threat as his larger counterpart, Kenny Britt, is a threat in the red zone.
For the Steelers, we know Ben Roethlisberger. Le'Veon Bell will likely not be 100% in terms of conditioning--but coach Mike Tomlin has said that he should be close. Just in case, Rookie James Conner got a lot of reps in Bell's absence and enjoyed an impressive preseason. Behind a top-ranked Steelers offensive line, the Steelers should get plenty of rush yards on a Browns defense that will miss run-stopper Myles Garrett. To complement superstar Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant became a much more reliable and productive target last season for Roethlisberger.
NFL Pick: Browns/Steelers 'Over' 46.5 Points
Jets vs Bills (O/U 40 Points)
Both teams feature superb rushing attacks that will be responsible for a lot of big plays that will move the ball down the field quickly and also open up the passing game.
Buffalo features the number 1 rushing attack from last season. Le'Sean McCoy led the team with 1,267 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. He was also a reliable threat catching the ball. The passing attack should actually improve with Watkins gone, who struggled last season with health and consistency. Jordan Matthews is healthy and, although not as prolific as Watkins, will provide Taylor with a reliable target out of the slot that will make the passing attack more productive. While Matthews was injured, rookie Zay Jones got more playing time with the starters and displayed his athleticism and route-running ability in the preseason. Jones has the kind of speed that makes him a deep-play threat for Taylor, who is known for his deep ball, in addition to his mobility.
The Bills took some downgrades in the secondary, which had been their strength last season, in order to acquire more draft picks. They lost Stephen Gilmore, who had achieved almost half of their interceptions, Ronald Darby, who was going to be their number 1 corner and the list continues. The Jets certainly lost a lot on offense, as well--their top three wide receivers. But, they have a lethal duo in the backfield in Matt Forte and Bilal Powell who can achieve a lot of yards rushing and catching even in the slot position. They acquired the physical Jermaine Kearse from Seattle. Jeremy Kerly offers a reliable target from the slot. And former Alabama star ArDarius Stewart is the electric threat that can take advantage of a Bills' secondary that will suffer from some key departures and will be all the more vulnerable, as last year's 29th ranked rush defense, which has also been downgraded in talent this season, will struggle to stop Forte and Powell.
Also note this trend: With a team that scored 24+ points last season and a game total set between 35.5 and 42 points, the 'over' is hitting over 75% of the time.
NFL Pick: Jets/Bills 'Over' 40 Points
Jaguars vs Texans (O/U 39.5 Points)
The Texans boast the statistically top passing defense and regains JJ Watt. The pressure that he can apply to the Jaguars' quarterback should make up for the departure of shutdown cornerback AJ Buoye.
Buoye steels a Jaguars secondary that performed very well against the lesser quarterbacks of the NFL. Texans' Tom Savage definitely belongs in that category, as he has yet to throw a touchdown in 2 career starts.
But the Jaguars won't want to rely on Bortles either, who suffered a major regression last season. Although he has since looked better since teammate Chad Henne threatened for his job and should outperform Savage, the Jaguars already made clear by drafting Leonard Fournette in the first round that the run game will compose their identity on offense.
The Texans, too, will want to run the ball as much as possible with Lamar Miller. Miller, who ran for just 63 yards on 22 carries last December against the Jaguars, will struggle to be as productive against a team that will not have to worry about stopping a decent pass attack and that will be improved with the addition of Calais Campbell and the growth of Dante Fowler Jr on the defensive line and of sideline-to-sideline animal Myles Jack at the outside linebacker position, where he is also very competent in coverage.
Two top-ranked defenses and two lackluster offenses that will focus on running the ball creates a strong recipe for the under. We also have a pair of trends on our side: In the first two weeks of the season dating back to their first season in the NFL (1995), the first-half 'under' is hitting more than 75% of the time for the Jaguars. Dating back to 2016, the first-half 'under' is hitting almost 80% of the time for the Jaguars when they are underdogs.
NFL Pick: Jaguars/Texans First Half 'Under' 20 Points
can't wait 'til we show the world! :boxing:
