Sunday Thoughts

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
Suns +3
Cavs -5
Cavs +2 2nd Half
Suns +155
Toronto -3 1st half
Charlotte +120 (will be betting the 2nd half under)




Spurs/Cavs

Road domination. Name of the game in this series. 5 straight SU winners for the road team. Real hard for me to see it continuing though. Line tells quite a bit of the story. I've been tracking a rather odd stat this year. Anybody care to guess what the Spurs ATS record is in their SU losses? It'll blow you away. I'll let the suspense build until a bit later. It's worthy of it's own post so that people actually see it. Whatever you do don't take the points. ML the spurs or bet the Cavs. Agree a ton with Tuck in that this isn't a game that the Spurs can afford to go all out in. Hard fought battle with the Pacers which brings up another random point (bound to be quite a few of them as I've decided to sit by a computer on Saturday night). Shopping for the best line is vastly underrated.

JPicks said:
Only thing I've played so far is the Bobcats -5. Was hoping for a 5 with the Pacers, but it never happened.
Click to expand...

I was dying to play the Pacers yesterday against the Spurs but could never get the key # of 5 for them. Would have pushed the play had I gotten the 5 and would have lost if I had settled for the 4.5. Price shopping is damn important this time of the year when the books have everything down to a science. Bad lines don't exist. If it looks shady it is.

Laying the points with the Cavs mainly because I don't think the Spurs can afford to go all out here as Tuck mentioned. Also likely that I'll make a smaller play parlaying the Cavs to the over. If the Spurs don't give full effort it'll likely result in the over cashing.
 
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Suns/Mavs

Have to say that I'll have an eye towards the refs that Stern sends to Dallas. Not much of a conspiracy guy, but I have to think it's in the leagues best interests for the Suns to win this one. Not sure if I care if Howard plays or not. Dallas has a tough enough schedule left that they certainly can't think the playoffs are a lock. Tough game for me to get a handle on really. 1st half over play could be worthwhile depending on the line. Lean Suns getting 5 points or more.
 
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Kittens/Pistons

Likely to just bet the under and never put much thought into who wins. This is a playoff game. With AI out and Bell ?? all the better. Maybe BC has something that can talk me out of this one, but I doubt it. A bit surprised this line wasn't listed in the 170's from LVSC. I'm guessing the books won't open it at 180 though. Last time the teams met up they both shot north of 40% and still only scored 158. Probably be smart to just sit out the 1st half and play the 2nd half under when things get serious. Will be on the under in some form.
 
Agree 100 % with your thoughts.

Gonna look that under over more in Auburn Hills
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Memphis +5.5 on Saturday looked damn shady, as shady as anything I've seen this season. Fuck fearing things that look shady.:angry:
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Its not the lines that are shady--

Its the results that are SHADY--

IN reality the LINES cannot be SHADY, there is no such as a SHADY number or a normal NUMBER--

So what we have is that the results are SHADY---

I could think of a few reasons why that happens at this POINT IN YEAR-

-Tired Legs-
-Brutal scheduling on NBA is catching to up all players-
_teams are sick of playing on the road and only can play hard in some road games-
-Players are getting ready for playoffs and dont want to peak early and physcologically are resting for playoffs- Ie CAVS of late--
-Wear and tear of a long season, Things go a little crazy at end of year-
-Teams tanking games for playoff position and Ping PONG BALLS--

These are the reasons things seem SHADY--- NOT THE LINE, saying the LINE is SHADY is not correct and has no merit at all--
 
JPicks said:
Suns/Mavs

Have to say that I'll have an eye towards the refs that Stern sends to Dallas. Not much of a conspiracy guy, but I have to think it's in the leagues best interests for the Suns to win this one. Not sure if I care if Howard plays or not. Dallas has a tough enough schedule left that they certainly can't think the playoffs are a lock. Tough game for me to get a handle on really. 1st half over play could be worthwhile depending on the line. Lean Suns getting 5 points or more.
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Im not shocked to say that its Stern's bitch Bavetta reffing this game.
 
Never got around to finishing up this thread. Here's the stat that I guess nobody cares about.


Spurs are 1-25 ATS this year during their 26 losses. If it wasn't for the game where Ginobli, Duncan, and TP all sat out at the last minute in Denver they'd be 0-25. If you like the Spurs don't mess with the points.


Suns +3 for the first bet of the day. Love, love, love, Bavetta doing that game.

Will still be playing the Cavs just hoping for a 5. 174 is a hell of a lot lower than 180 for that Bobcats total. What a bunch of fucks. Going to wait until the 2nd half and hit the under then. It's going to be hard when it'll only be 85 points.
 
It's crazy huh? I had to triple check my #'s as I didn't think it was possible.


Played the Cavs at -5 and Suns at +3. I'm likely to end up with about 8 bets today in what looks like it could be the largest volume of betting for me this season. Love lots of things.
 
yeah, I actually read that about 15 times.

On the bobcats, 76ers, a few plays on Denver, Cleveland 6, and 5, more than likely PHX as well.
 
that is pretty crazy good work--

also the bavetta shadiness is also crazy--

he may be still fixing games, as Why wouldnt he keep doing it
 
Never thought at beginning of year a Sunday night game in early April between Charlotte and Detroit would be so critical BOTH ways to make the playoffs.
 
B.A.R. said:
Never thought at beginning of year a Sunday night game in early April between Charlotte and Detroit would be so critical BOTH ways to make the playoffs.
Click to expand...

I hear ya. My apologies for going against the home team as well. I just don't see the Pistons caring to go get beat up by the Cavs nearly as much as the Bobcats might enjoy it.
 
JPicks said:
I hear ya. My apologies for going against the home team as well. I just don't see the Pistons caring to go get beat up by the Cavs nearly as much as the Bobcats might enjoy it.
Click to expand...


If Detroit wins here they still will get 7th spot I believe from looking at the schedules awhile back with the three teams. I'll re-eaxmine tonight after this is over.

The other meeting in Det, the Stons were cruising then hit about nothing in 4th and Felton buried a three late to win it in a great comeback.

Wondering how bruised up Tay is after yesterday as well.
 
Any thoughts on Rockets JP?
I dont know why this line is so short. Rockets are 1 game behind the Blazers for the #4 seed and in a possible 1st round matchup HCA will be crucial for them. They just ant afford to lose this with the series tied at 1 and losing the HCA if they ould face the Blazers in the 1st round.
Really intrested to hear your and maybe others thoughts.
 
That was an odd game here tonight man in all honesty.

Charlotte ice0cold all half keeps it close then dominates third but enters 4th only up 2. A controversial call with 2 seconds left in third, Hamilton already had one tech and stayed cool. I had a call so missed first few minutes of 4th but apparently he got tossed between qtrs. So, then Will Bynum scores 26 pts in the 4th qtr to set a team record.

Unreal.
 
Oh, I know Ret. The record is sorta skewed but he scored 10 right away in 4th that kept Detroit in the game. That was huge.
 
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