Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
The jury's still out on whether posting these is a good thing or not--that's me being superstitious.
But, for what it's worth, here's where I am for tomorrow, condensed a bit because I know how I can ramble.
Lions +3/ML
I think Griese is an improvement, but I also think the Bears' defense is too hurt to really stop this offense. I think they score. I think they get into the mid/high 20s, and I think that's going to be enough.
Lions/Bears over 45
Again, I just don't think the Bears can keep the Lions under 20 and I'm not sure how the Lions can keep anybody under 20, not without them basically doing it to themselves. I would have liked a 42, but I figure 27-24 or 27-20 works here.
Atlanta +3/ML
Atlanta isn't going to win a lot of games this year, but I think this one they can get. Houston has a ton of injuries, their defense has also played against Schaub for years in practice, they know what they're getting, they're 0-3, they're at home, this is one of those games they really can win and probably should. I'll take a chance on 'em.
NY Jets -3
You know, I wanted to bet the Bills in this game, and even if Poz was hurt I still would have if Losman wouldn't have been hurt. But Trent Edwards, you don't get much greener than this guy and you don't get much thinner than that Buffalo defense. This is more a bet against an injured, undermanned team than anything else.
Green Bay ML
This feels like a total sucker bet, but how can you not take them here? OK, so Farve will do something stupid at least once, probably leading to 7 Minny points. But that's 7, even if they get another 10 on their own which I have trouble seeing, does anybody really see GB scoring less than 17? GB feels good for more like 20 or 23 to me. I'll take it and see where it goes.
Arizona +6/ML
I generally like to take coaches in this situation, lining up against the offense they built, the QB they have made into the guy he is today with the defense to execute on what those coaches know. Yes, the Steelers are good, I think they're actually better than the Cardinals (big shock), but I like this spot for AZ a lot. Ward is out for Pittsburgh, this feels a good deal like the Baltimore game, only it's at home and they're still getting six.
SD -11.5
I know, I know, SD sucks, they're horrible. Blah, blah, blah. I actually agree with that to a point, but have you seen KC play? Their offensive line isn't solid, they have no WRs, and Huard isn't playing well. In fact, he's very close to being benched. The only half-way decent offensive team KC's played this year, Houston, kicked the s**t out of them. I feel SD has a better offense than Houston, I think they're angry, and I think this game sets up sort of like Philly/Detroit last weekend.
SD/KC over 38
It was at this point where I almost stopped for the day. I already had what I consider a number of plays, but I really wanted this one in there and here's why. Again, look at who KC has played, their last two games were against Minny and Chicago, two teams who's offenses are a mess. Before that game? They gave up 20 to Houston. Again, I think SD's offense is better than Houston's. What I worry about here is KC not scoring, I have trouble seeing them get into the high teens, but at 38 I think that can be enough. I'm thinking 27-13, maybe 31-13.
If these go well, I'll probably take Eagles -2.5 in the night game even though I don't like the number a whole lot, but I do think they sneak out of there with a win.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
But, for what it's worth, here's where I am for tomorrow, condensed a bit because I know how I can ramble.
Lions +3/ML
I think Griese is an improvement, but I also think the Bears' defense is too hurt to really stop this offense. I think they score. I think they get into the mid/high 20s, and I think that's going to be enough.
Lions/Bears over 45
Again, I just don't think the Bears can keep the Lions under 20 and I'm not sure how the Lions can keep anybody under 20, not without them basically doing it to themselves. I would have liked a 42, but I figure 27-24 or 27-20 works here.
Atlanta +3/ML
Atlanta isn't going to win a lot of games this year, but I think this one they can get. Houston has a ton of injuries, their defense has also played against Schaub for years in practice, they know what they're getting, they're 0-3, they're at home, this is one of those games they really can win and probably should. I'll take a chance on 'em.
NY Jets -3
You know, I wanted to bet the Bills in this game, and even if Poz was hurt I still would have if Losman wouldn't have been hurt. But Trent Edwards, you don't get much greener than this guy and you don't get much thinner than that Buffalo defense. This is more a bet against an injured, undermanned team than anything else.
Green Bay ML
This feels like a total sucker bet, but how can you not take them here? OK, so Farve will do something stupid at least once, probably leading to 7 Minny points. But that's 7, even if they get another 10 on their own which I have trouble seeing, does anybody really see GB scoring less than 17? GB feels good for more like 20 or 23 to me. I'll take it and see where it goes.
Arizona +6/ML
I generally like to take coaches in this situation, lining up against the offense they built, the QB they have made into the guy he is today with the defense to execute on what those coaches know. Yes, the Steelers are good, I think they're actually better than the Cardinals (big shock), but I like this spot for AZ a lot. Ward is out for Pittsburgh, this feels a good deal like the Baltimore game, only it's at home and they're still getting six.
SD -11.5
I know, I know, SD sucks, they're horrible. Blah, blah, blah. I actually agree with that to a point, but have you seen KC play? Their offensive line isn't solid, they have no WRs, and Huard isn't playing well. In fact, he's very close to being benched. The only half-way decent offensive team KC's played this year, Houston, kicked the s**t out of them. I feel SD has a better offense than Houston, I think they're angry, and I think this game sets up sort of like Philly/Detroit last weekend.
SD/KC over 38
It was at this point where I almost stopped for the day. I already had what I consider a number of plays, but I really wanted this one in there and here's why. Again, look at who KC has played, their last two games were against Minny and Chicago, two teams who's offenses are a mess. Before that game? They gave up 20 to Houston. Again, I think SD's offense is better than Houston's. What I worry about here is KC not scoring, I have trouble seeing them get into the high teens, but at 38 I think that can be enough. I'm thinking 27-13, maybe 31-13.
If these go well, I'll probably take Eagles -2.5 in the night game even though I don't like the number a whole lot, but I do think they sneak out of there with a win.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
