Well Act I of my Saturday went according to plan but then NE didnt cooperate in the nightcap. I really have no regrets in making that NE play ( only regret not playing NE 2nd H knowing they got the ball first) . The line was priced to perfection and I expected just a little more from the NE team both on offense and defense. Really you have to give props to David Garrard and Jack Del Rio. Coach Del Rio came prepared and so did his team. Garrard probably played the best game of his career . I admit seeing Garrard float the ball to all sides of the field aggravated me at first. The Jags throw the ball better then I thought they would but I was on point with there defense and muffled running game. I was curious at what NE was actually trying to do on defense. Still though I feel my mantra of" They are What We Thought they Were " held true again today. Both SEA & JAX defenses were picked apart today. The Hawk offense showed it could not sustain drives and the suprise of the day was Jax could throw the ball effectively.
1pm : San Diego @ Indy
First thing is we get SD playing the early game. Should be some body clock advantages there but SD has actually done this a few times already plus probably arrived in Indy abit earlier then usual. Second is double revenge spot for Indy who lost late in the season to the Drew Brees / Keenan McCardell Chargers and the earlier loss this year in SD which I will label as a fluke. The Colts traveled to SD after the NE loss extremely shorthanded missing Harrison , Gozalez , D.Clark , Ugoh , Kieaho and Hagler( later losing Freeney and Diem) . Peyton Manning in bad weather had 6 INTs with his 2nd tier WR unit Fletcher , Thorpe , Fletcher (TE)and Moorehead (now on IR) playing major roles they were unaccustomed to . At least those guys now have some experience to provide depth some SD lacks on offense except at RB. SD had two 1st Quarter Darren Sproles kick returns for scores. Also normally reliable PK Vinateri missed a 40yd FG at the end to defeat SD. The keys of that game were Rivers only 104 yds passing , LT only 76 yds rushing and Wayne despite no other real WR threats had 10 catches for 140 yards. Rivers 13 of 24 with 2 INTs completed 3 to Gates and 2 each to Chambers and Jackson. There simply was not much on offense from SD and with all the help Indy gave them it took a missed FG to win.
Fast foward to today. Indy gets all the players back it missed in that game while Gates is doubtful. Cromartie who had 3 picks seems to be battling some undisclosed illness but expects to play. You just never know what these mysterious things.
You look at what SD accomplished on the road and its not impressive. The managed wins in Oakland , in Tenny with OT , KC when LJ , Holmes and Kennison were OUT and in Denver. They lost early @ NE , @ GB , @ Minny and @ Jax . For the most part they struggled stopping the run which was there forte and struggled scoring only topping 17 @ GB with 24 pts in there losses. They didnt play especially well in wins @ Tenny and KC. They caught DEN at the right time and smoked them and polished Oak off to end the year. Despite an easy schedule this year Rivers regressed( amazing 460 attempts each year) . He threw for 200 less yards and 1/2 yd less YPA , 1 less TD , 6 more picks , lost 4 more fumbles and saw his QB rating dip to 82 from 92. His road numbers are inflated compared to home IMO since they blew out most teams at home and trailed often on the road. Therefore at home they ran alot more and away they threw alot more. Amazingly he had just six 200+ yds performances this season plus last week . In losses his QB rating was 69 compared to 92 in wins. He completed 57% instead of 63% . YPA dropped to 6.3 from 7.2 yds . In those 5 games just 6 TDS vs 8 Ints compared to 15tds and 7 ints . He played well at GB and Denver but the rest of his games his passer rating was below 75. Bottomline is despite his line last week he hasnt played very well in the 2nd Half. In the games @ Minny , @ Jax , @ Tenny and @ KC he had only 4tds and 6 Ints.
On the road SD can be run on. While w/o Gates the focus sways right on stopping LT. Indy only allowed 17 pts and 3.9 YPC at home. Only 7 teams scored 17 or more and two did so cause of kick returns while one did so in a blowout due to 4 th Q points. The defense is underrated and did a good job shorthanded in SD. Last week SD managed just 17 pts at home vs Tenny. The Tenny team was real bangedup and gave SD everything it could handle IMO. On the flip the SD defense has played fairly well except for a few occassions and held Indy to 21 and 17 last 2 meetings . Look at recent Indy playoff games past 3 seasons. Only NE scored more then 17 last season while the other 3 struggled at scored 17 or less , the loss vs Ptt was 21-18 , previous to that they allowed 20 and 24 but the 24 was in a blowout high scoring game where they topped 40. So Dungy seems to revert more to his TB days in the playoffs.
While LT finished the year strong he didnt face much in the terms of defense @ KC , @ Tenn , vs Det off the Cowboys choke and vs Den who was just eliminated from the playoffs on XMas Eve Night. Tenny did much better the 2nd time around 21c 42 yds.
2.4 , 2.8 , 3.2 , 2.5 , 3.9 , 7.7 , 5.6 , 3.5 . YPA on the road
Clearly LT is always a threat but his road numbers and lack of Gates makes it an uphill battle to suceed. If he isnt moving the ball Rivers has not shown the past 2 months he can do it. What would have happened had Tenny not fumbled inside the SD 10 and missed a chip FG??
SD truly reminds me of the Seattle Seahawks. The difference is SD has a stud offensive player in LT. Indy won the SB and has a ton of experience while Turner is not highly regarded as a HC.
Now the LINE seems high at -10 but recall that a shorthanded Indy team went to SD where they are real tough and were -3.5 favs. Really they barely lost , got key players back , rested and loss of Gates ..and now swapped Home Field...some say LT on turf see previous games vs Indy and look at Minny this year.
Its really a heck of alot points in a game where points should be at a premium. Indy also returns Brock , Bethea and Mathis on defense. As highas the line seems remember in there loss to Pitt they were -10 and that Steeler team was pretty good coming off an impressive win @ Cincy where it was -3. Not to mention who had revenge afte losing badly to iNdy weeks prior. SD kind of limps in here after beating a watered down Tenny club missing its top 2 WR and starting TE.
I didnt talk much about the Indy offense cause who doesnt understand there offense by now? Addai if he again struggles may give way to Keith some but also might be more involved in the passing game like last years playoffs...
Plays :
Indy -10.5 -120
Under 47 -120
Colts -6.5 -115 1st H ? ( passed cause it move to -7 high vig)
Colts -4 / Under 51.5 2 Teamer (just passed )
Under SD 18 TT +110
See Indy 27 or 28 to 14 .....milking the clock in the 2nd Half
BOL all:cheers:
1pm : San Diego @ Indy
First thing is we get SD playing the early game. Should be some body clock advantages there but SD has actually done this a few times already plus probably arrived in Indy abit earlier then usual. Second is double revenge spot for Indy who lost late in the season to the Drew Brees / Keenan McCardell Chargers and the earlier loss this year in SD which I will label as a fluke. The Colts traveled to SD after the NE loss extremely shorthanded missing Harrison , Gozalez , D.Clark , Ugoh , Kieaho and Hagler( later losing Freeney and Diem) . Peyton Manning in bad weather had 6 INTs with his 2nd tier WR unit Fletcher , Thorpe , Fletcher (TE)and Moorehead (now on IR) playing major roles they were unaccustomed to . At least those guys now have some experience to provide depth some SD lacks on offense except at RB. SD had two 1st Quarter Darren Sproles kick returns for scores. Also normally reliable PK Vinateri missed a 40yd FG at the end to defeat SD. The keys of that game were Rivers only 104 yds passing , LT only 76 yds rushing and Wayne despite no other real WR threats had 10 catches for 140 yards. Rivers 13 of 24 with 2 INTs completed 3 to Gates and 2 each to Chambers and Jackson. There simply was not much on offense from SD and with all the help Indy gave them it took a missed FG to win.
Fast foward to today. Indy gets all the players back it missed in that game while Gates is doubtful. Cromartie who had 3 picks seems to be battling some undisclosed illness but expects to play. You just never know what these mysterious things.
You look at what SD accomplished on the road and its not impressive. The managed wins in Oakland , in Tenny with OT , KC when LJ , Holmes and Kennison were OUT and in Denver. They lost early @ NE , @ GB , @ Minny and @ Jax . For the most part they struggled stopping the run which was there forte and struggled scoring only topping 17 @ GB with 24 pts in there losses. They didnt play especially well in wins @ Tenny and KC. They caught DEN at the right time and smoked them and polished Oak off to end the year. Despite an easy schedule this year Rivers regressed( amazing 460 attempts each year) . He threw for 200 less yards and 1/2 yd less YPA , 1 less TD , 6 more picks , lost 4 more fumbles and saw his QB rating dip to 82 from 92. His road numbers are inflated compared to home IMO since they blew out most teams at home and trailed often on the road. Therefore at home they ran alot more and away they threw alot more. Amazingly he had just six 200+ yds performances this season plus last week . In losses his QB rating was 69 compared to 92 in wins. He completed 57% instead of 63% . YPA dropped to 6.3 from 7.2 yds . In those 5 games just 6 TDS vs 8 Ints compared to 15tds and 7 ints . He played well at GB and Denver but the rest of his games his passer rating was below 75. Bottomline is despite his line last week he hasnt played very well in the 2nd Half. In the games @ Minny , @ Jax , @ Tenny and @ KC he had only 4tds and 6 Ints.
On the road SD can be run on. While w/o Gates the focus sways right on stopping LT. Indy only allowed 17 pts and 3.9 YPC at home. Only 7 teams scored 17 or more and two did so cause of kick returns while one did so in a blowout due to 4 th Q points. The defense is underrated and did a good job shorthanded in SD. Last week SD managed just 17 pts at home vs Tenny. The Tenny team was real bangedup and gave SD everything it could handle IMO. On the flip the SD defense has played fairly well except for a few occassions and held Indy to 21 and 17 last 2 meetings . Look at recent Indy playoff games past 3 seasons. Only NE scored more then 17 last season while the other 3 struggled at scored 17 or less , the loss vs Ptt was 21-18 , previous to that they allowed 20 and 24 but the 24 was in a blowout high scoring game where they topped 40. So Dungy seems to revert more to his TB days in the playoffs.
While LT finished the year strong he didnt face much in the terms of defense @ KC , @ Tenn , vs Det off the Cowboys choke and vs Den who was just eliminated from the playoffs on XMas Eve Night. Tenny did much better the 2nd time around 21c 42 yds.
2.4 , 2.8 , 3.2 , 2.5 , 3.9 , 7.7 , 5.6 , 3.5 . YPA on the road
Clearly LT is always a threat but his road numbers and lack of Gates makes it an uphill battle to suceed. If he isnt moving the ball Rivers has not shown the past 2 months he can do it. What would have happened had Tenny not fumbled inside the SD 10 and missed a chip FG??
SD truly reminds me of the Seattle Seahawks. The difference is SD has a stud offensive player in LT. Indy won the SB and has a ton of experience while Turner is not highly regarded as a HC.
Now the LINE seems high at -10 but recall that a shorthanded Indy team went to SD where they are real tough and were -3.5 favs. Really they barely lost , got key players back , rested and loss of Gates ..and now swapped Home Field...some say LT on turf see previous games vs Indy and look at Minny this year.
Its really a heck of alot points in a game where points should be at a premium. Indy also returns Brock , Bethea and Mathis on defense. As highas the line seems remember in there loss to Pitt they were -10 and that Steeler team was pretty good coming off an impressive win @ Cincy where it was -3. Not to mention who had revenge afte losing badly to iNdy weeks prior. SD kind of limps in here after beating a watered down Tenny club missing its top 2 WR and starting TE.
I didnt talk much about the Indy offense cause who doesnt understand there offense by now? Addai if he again struggles may give way to Keith some but also might be more involved in the passing game like last years playoffs...
Plays :
Indy -10.5 -120
Under 47 -120
Colts -6.5 -115 1st H ? ( passed cause it move to -7 high vig)
Colts -4 / Under 51.5 2 Teamer (just passed )
Under SD 18 TT +110
See Indy 27 or 28 to 14 .....milking the clock in the 2nd Half
BOL all:cheers:
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