Sunday Playoffs

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
The interesting part of WildCard Weekend is I have yet to make a play on any of the NFL games. After much to much time spent with JoePub going over the Skins-Hawks game I concluded and agreed that SEA was the cheap side. However I guess my stubborness , hardheadness whatever you want to call it prevented me from joining the boys on SEA even when I could have the ML @-150. I just thought WASH would fight and Sea based on there play wasnt as good as the names on the back of the jerseys. Well SEA played like shit but did what it had to do.Really I am never gonna lay anything in a playoff game on the road unless I have a clear edge ( like Indy last year) and I was dead wrong about Pitt falling to pieces in the 2nd H. Figured Jax would win but what a great effort from Pitt. Today I couldnt figure if Iliked NYG or it was just the fan in me wanting them to win...so I passed again and then yet again when I could have them 2nd H +3 even.

So that leaves me 1 with game to figure out and a feeling of leaving some cash on the table....

4:30 Tenn @ SD

Talk about limping into the playoffs. There "star" QB gets hurt and is gametime decision but should play( think Collins is just as "good" but different). There starting TE Scaife and one of there starting WRs goes down. They are down an OL in Olson hoping Mawae returns. They already lost Brandon Jones at WR a few games back. So have to rely On Gage and Moulds at WR and Hartstock and Troupe who has disappeared from the face of the Earth at TE.

The one player must important to this team is Head Stomper Albert Haynesworth. 10-3 with him and 0-3 w/o him. Worse look at the defensive output 28, 34, 35. Only 4 games he played in saw the D allow 20+ points and one was the OT affair vs SD(17 at regulation) , 20vs Hou and 22 vs Indy at home then a weird 4th q @ Hou where they allowed 4 fourth Q scores up alot. So the defense starts and ends with Haynesworth. See how SD fared vs good defenses at home Chi , KC , Indy and even Oakland...not there best offensive days...

In the meeting that sparked some bad blood @ Tenny there was 7 sacks and 5 Ints. Might be worth it to play O4.5 sacks at ++ money. Anyway there was little offense that day think SD ran 70+ plays to get 340 yds and Tenny had little offense except White grinding out yards so from that sstandpoint the few receptions Williams and Scaife made were not significant keys.

However no matter how slice it the Tenny offense is pretty bad and relies heavily on LenDale White to move the chains sprinkled in with a play or two by VY those longs runs have disappeared it seems and a bad hammy doesnt help here. I think we all agree Tenny looked terrible on offense vs Indy. Which begs me to wonder if the old forget last week angle should come into play. We all saw how bad tenny looked and for that want to quickly fade them despite there defense.

SD was tough at home and on defense but a close look at who they played is laughable. They got DEN after they were eliminated from the playoffs , a banged up Balt team , Det after they choked vs Dallas , Houston w/o Schaub , Green and I believe Andre Johnson , Oakland who actually played them well , KC who somehow beat them , Chicago , and the only good team was Indy in a disgusting performance they won.
Also telling how a good team is how they travel and vs good teams SD went 2-4 on the road the sneaky win @ Tenny and the blasting they gave Denver. Otherwise they lost @ Jax , NE , GB , and Minny.

SD has is 7-1 at HOME SU and ATS. If they win they cover but they were never more then 10 and played worse teams then Tenny.

Vince Young is 10-1 ATS as a dog in his career catching 3 points or more . Only loss @ Jax 37-7 (+9.5) . This year won @ Jax and NO as dogs covering vs Indy.

Its crazy because of there reputation but I think Tenny can run the ball on SD some. Teams do it every week on the road and he really didnt face any solid backs, solid offenses or teams at home to give them a challenge. Larry Johnson ran on them and Addai didnt but Addai is small not LenDale White.

We here all the complaints about Turner , we have SD lackuster history in the playoffs and we have Philip Rivers struggling past few weeks and vs good defenses.

Play: Titans +10.5 (lean UND 38.5)(21-14 game)might add:cheers:
 
GL Nut. Excellent reasoning. To me this comes down to Vince Young doing enough to keep the Titans in the game. I'm convinced that Rivers should also do a few things to help the Titans stay in this.
 
Good point J. Whether its the Tenny Def of Rivers alone something should happen where a big play comes out of it. BOL

Troutman: Think I have decided to play it 1st Half and +10.5. Basically because if Tenny cant hang around in the 1st H , then how can they make a comeback with a poor pass attack?? So logically they need to keep it close early. Sort of like the Super Bowl last year da Bears covered the 1st H and then the game seperated. So playing +7 probably for half maybe slightily more and then tacking on some +10.5. BOL
 
I didnt mention that but having Jeff Fisher is a nice underrated angle on "our" sidelines.


1stH +7 Even (Win)
Titans +11 (Push)
Under 2nd Q 12.5 +105 (Win)[/quote]


Ten 6-0 ....I love how Tenn is playing but there lack of big play ability is scary. Really outside of the HUGE fumble that had nothing to do with the RB I felt Tenny played a perfect half......:tiphat:
 
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Thanks.

That game was so similiar to Sea-Wash the missed FG being the end all for Tenny taking there hearts oout of the game. Now both SD and SEA should be ashamed at how hard they had to fight the worst teams in the playoffs ...SD was damn lucky LT stuck his arm out cause he got blown up....game of inches....again better team finds a way to win.......no suprise..

So sick at how much dough I left on the sidelines overthinking 1st Q Under and 1st H under as well as Tenny 1st Q....
 
Nice work, SN.

I'd rather be sick about money you left in your pocket rather than money you lost on the f**king Bucs. F**kers.

I think we learned a number of things about these teams today, no?
 
One thing I learned is that the truest thing ever said was Denny Green's they are what we thought were. Really thats why I take so much time in football going over a teams schedule. These teams did what was expected in a sense..

It's undeniable that SD and Tenny have a ton of talent but they just dont strike me as very good teams. The two most banged up teams who were pretty bad offenses went it to both of there houses and gave them hell. How bad is Tenny's offense...terrible? yet they were in the game till about 10 to play. Imagine if Tenny doesnt get that fluke fumble inside the 10 or actually had a healthy WR or called some designed runs for VY.

With TB I didnt think there were any good and think the whole quitting early on the season fucked another team. Who are the Giants? Even being here I couldnt tell you. The only injury that concerned me was Madisons absence cause we had depth with the other guys. Didnt know how NY would react after the Pats game. Didnt see it as letdown spot but I dont play for the Giants either. TB another team who has one solid playmaker in Galloway and thats it. Other guys have good numbers but when push comes to shove you let Earnest Graham beat you. It was hard to tell if TB was legit or not this season.

I think you did very well though outside of TB. I know bitching about woulda , coulda , shoulda is useless but it goes back to thing about having trouble making decisions. Why I pass on certain things and play others I just cant figure out.

I look at the SD game and ask myself how can they offer UND 20 in the 1st H , there has to be something I am missing. Same with the 1st Q total saw the vig cheapening up on my under and was asking myself who isnt playing the UNDER 7.5? My inability to say fuck it and bet SEA even if I know it will be an ugly win...or lay the Jags ML.....

Happy with the 2-0-1 but still feel like I had to good an idea to be talking myself off things.....I mean I had no problem playing Bowling Green tonite and I didnt like them nearly as much as any NFL lean...


To be honest I really didnt see anything unexpected happen this weekend. Is there something you specifically you have in mind that my A.D.D riddled mind is missing?
 
I think your Denny Green comment is right on.

I think both Seattle and TB really showed their true colors this weekend.

In fact, I think your comment on nothing really unexpected happening this weekend overall is true even in a broader sense. Look at how teams like Tenny, NYG, and Seattle played this season and their games played out as microcosms of those seasons. Tenny starts off great, plays run defense over their heads, but loses the game because they just don't have the talent to compete. The Giants, who have the talent get pushed all over the place for a while, then they start hitting on some plays and roll to the win. Now, had they missed on those plays, I think we both know it would have snowballed the other way with them just as it did all season. They're good at rolling with momentum and laying down for momentum to roll over them, but not so much stopping and shifting momentum as opposed to having it given to them.

And Seattle goes more conservative early, then opens it up late to coast. Exactly like their season.

The think I noticed yesterday is that now that the playoffs are here Holmgren seems to be willing to throw out the passing that got him to the playoffs. This is why I think they go home next weekend.

Unless he dedicates himself to letting Hasselbeck throw the football, this team is history. And I don't think he will because it's going to be going into cold, Lambeau field, and the whole vibe is about slugging it out.

The thing about the Giants, and I did say this early last week when we talked, was that I truly thought this was the only matchup they could win. Because weather wouldn't be an option and as you rightly point out, TB only has one weapon. I was convinced the X-factor would be Garcia running around making plays and the TB defense stepping up at home.

The defense did just that early, and Garcia did some of what I expected from him, but the way his O-line played for him was embarrassing.

The other thing I saw today was that SD and Tenny played out almost exactly like their first game, which suggests to me Norv didn't prepare his team very well. I heard some of the Chargers' radio broadcast today, and they mentioned that the Titans were running the same stunts on defense that worked so well in their first game.

I don't have a lot of faith in Tony Dungy's ability to adjust in-game, but if you look back at their first game, Manning had maybe his worst game as a pro with six picks, and Indy still should have won the game.

I never like the way Indy is more about just surviving and advancing, but I have trouble seeing them not beat this team somewhat badly next week.
 
Good stuff . With NYG I think the tide turned when they started winning the battle (s) upfront today. TB struggling on the OL is not a new issue as we know. There is something to be said for beating the teams your supposed to beat but then again Quinn Gray won in Tb so how big was that home field? Was it just a matter of lack of execution by the opponent. I think NYG is a puzzle there a good team but they have holes . Maybe I am barking up the wrong tree but I just see a better team on the road. As you said must win after must win takes it toll. Dallas has played them real well this year. If the NYG offense is clicking they can hangaround but a couple stalled drives seems to be the negative momentum they dont overcome. Any time I see -7.5 I tend to think favorite.

The thing with SEA is I wont overlook Branch's absence but for the most part I thought Hasselback looked terrible. Sure he played some plays late but those WRs were so open the BG backup could have hit them. I was really unimpressed with the pass attack in area they were supposed to have such a huge advantage in. I really dont think they coasted. Was missed an easy FG and the tide turned. Think Hasselback was actually picked afterwards but SKins stall and give SEA good field position which they scored the go ahead TD. After that hell broke loose with 2 pick 6s.

Now the question is freezing cold Lambeau and he has some sort of hand / thumb issue going on. That could be a huge issue. Good point about Holmgren's objective here.

I give Tenny credit for there effort but its the same case as Wash. You can only play so perfect for so long before the opposition makes a few plays. If your not doing shit on offense then 1 TD becomes monumental. Tenny had 2 major gaffes on offense the forced fumble inside the 10 and the missed FG. Now SD had some miscues but they missed a longer 45yd FG which wasnt a gimme especially with an ailing kicker and shit weather and the pick in the end zone but I think they were well beyond FG still...If you really sit back and look at the teams Wash and Tenny fielded its almost embarrassing that SEA and SD at home struggled even in the slightest with these teams. They had every advantage possible .

In some ways the Indy line looks okay cause Colts were favored in SD and while they lost it was one of those games. SD play on the road has been terrible and this should be an exciting week.....
 
Oh, and you bring up another good point.

SD's kicker is gimpy.

Hello, let's give Indy good field position and make anything over a 40 yard FG an adventure?

Yeah, that's the team I want to bet on the road.
 
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