3 Player Props April 30: Today's Awful Starting Pitchers Create Strong Betting Opportunities
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for Arizona?
Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks today.
As evident in his 5.33 ERA, Nelson has been having a tough season.
But things have looked toughest for him in his most recent outings, which speaks to the poorness of his current form.
Two starts ago, he gave up five runs in five innings to the Padres.
Most recently, he gave up four runs in five innings to lowly Kansas City.
Hitters-friendly Coors Field is literally the last venue on Earth in which he should be expected to turn things around.
But even apart from where he pitches today, Nelson's pitching repertoire makes him vulnerable.
He relies especially on his fastball, which he throws just over 53 percent of this time.
This pitch, though, is mediocre at best.
It ranks in the 54thpercentile in spin rate and in the 27thpercentile in velocity.
Plus, heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Compared to other fastballs that they see, batters must really look forward to facing Nelson's.
Indeed, Nelson's fastball yields a .333 BA and .550 slugging rate.
My Favorite Rockies' Batter
I really like Colorado's Jurickson Profar to take advantage of Nelson's vulnerabilities.
He already has a strong track record with Nelson on the mound.
In his career, he is 3-for-6 with two doubles against Nelson.
Profar also enters this game in strong form, having gone 3-for-8 with a double in his last two games combined.
Therefore, let's expect him to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Jurickson Profar to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Starts for the A's?
Bottom-feeder Oakland is struggling to win games largely because its starting pitching is so awful.
One of its awful starting pitchers is Ken Waldichuk, who brings a ridiculous 7.82 ERA into today's game.
Hitters repeatedly crush his stuff.
He has allowed five earned runs or more in three different games.
Likewise, he has surrendered at least two home runs in three different starts.
Even in his better outings, he gives up many hits, which is good news for bettors looking to invest in player props.
Specifically, Waldichuk has allowed five hits in all of his starts.
Looking at Waldichuk's pitching repertoire, it is easy to see why he is so vulnerable to opposing lineups.
Waldichuk relies extensively on a single pitch, his fastball.
He throws this pitch just over 60 percent of the time.
Despite his reliance on it, it is a weak offering.
It ranks in the 55thpercentile in spin and in the 47thpercentile in velocity.
Moreover, heat maps illustrate the great extent to which he concentrates its location in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Among Cincinnati's batters, my favorite one to do well today is Kevin Newman.
Investing in Newman is a value play because we get him at plus odds.
It is also a smart play because he enters today's game in good form -- he is enjoying a three-game hitting streak.
Plus, he's slugging .846 against Waldichuk's favorite pitches from lefties.
Thus, let's count on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Kevin Newman to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jake Woodford, who truly doesn't belong in professional baseball, is starting for the Cardinals today.
The Cardinals just don't have many options. They lack effective starting pitching because they dealt away or lost key starting pitchers in previous years.
It would sure be nice for Cardinals fans to have studs like Zac Gallen back, but today they are stuck with Woodford, who carries a 5.47 ERA into today's game.
He is a great pitcher for opponents' hitter props because as evident in the fact that he has surrendered five or more hits in all of his starts.
His opposing hard contact rate has been high especially in his last two outings, which reflects the extent to which batters are making good contact against his pitches.
Woodford relies on a variety of pitches, foremost in terms of frequency are his sinker and sweep.
Despite his inclination to rely most on these two pitches, batters thrive against them, slugging .500 against his sinker and .406 against his sweeper.
But Woodford's third- and fourth-favorite options fare no batter.
Opponents slug 1.167 against his curveball and 1.273 against his fastball.
Woodford simply lacks challenging pitches to offer.
My Favorite Dodgers Batter
I especially like Los Angeles' Jason Heyward to inflict damage on the vulnerable Woodford.
Heyward enters today's game in good form, having accrued two hits in each of his last two games. He also hit a double in his last game.
Plus, he slugs .786 against Woodford's favorite pitches from righties.
So, we should expect him to manage at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Jason Heyward to record 2+ total bases at +130 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
- Arizona's starting pitcher, Ryne Nelson, gives up a lot of hits and runs due to his mediocre stuff.
- Colorado's Jurickson Profar hits Nelson well.
- Profar shows strong form.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks today.
As evident in his 5.33 ERA, Nelson has been having a tough season.
But things have looked toughest for him in his most recent outings, which speaks to the poorness of his current form.
Two starts ago, he gave up five runs in five innings to the Padres.
Most recently, he gave up four runs in five innings to lowly Kansas City.
Hitters-friendly Coors Field is literally the last venue on Earth in which he should be expected to turn things around.
But even apart from where he pitches today, Nelson's pitching repertoire makes him vulnerable.
He relies especially on his fastball, which he throws just over 53 percent of this time.
This pitch, though, is mediocre at best.
It ranks in the 54thpercentile in spin rate and in the 27thpercentile in velocity.
Plus, heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Compared to other fastballs that they see, batters must really look forward to facing Nelson's.
Indeed, Nelson's fastball yields a .333 BA and .550 slugging rate.
My Favorite Rockies' Batter
I really like Colorado's Jurickson Profar to take advantage of Nelson's vulnerabilities.
He already has a strong track record with Nelson on the mound.
In his career, he is 3-for-6 with two doubles against Nelson.
Profar also enters this game in strong form, having gone 3-for-8 with a double in his last two games combined.
Therefore, let's expect him to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Jurickson Profar to record 2+ total bases at +100 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
- Oakland's starting pitcher Ken Waldichuk has been terrible this season and doesn't appear capable of turning things around.
- Kevin Newman comes into this game with a three-game hitting streak.
- Newman hits Waldichuk's pitches well.
Who Starts for the A's?
Bottom-feeder Oakland is struggling to win games largely because its starting pitching is so awful.
One of its awful starting pitchers is Ken Waldichuk, who brings a ridiculous 7.82 ERA into today's game.
Hitters repeatedly crush his stuff.
He has allowed five earned runs or more in three different games.
Likewise, he has surrendered at least two home runs in three different starts.
Even in his better outings, he gives up many hits, which is good news for bettors looking to invest in player props.
Specifically, Waldichuk has allowed five hits in all of his starts.
Looking at Waldichuk's pitching repertoire, it is easy to see why he is so vulnerable to opposing lineups.
Waldichuk relies extensively on a single pitch, his fastball.
He throws this pitch just over 60 percent of the time.
Despite his reliance on it, it is a weak offering.
It ranks in the 55thpercentile in spin and in the 47thpercentile in velocity.
Moreover, heat maps illustrate the great extent to which he concentrates its location in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Among Cincinnati's batters, my favorite one to do well today is Kevin Newman.
Investing in Newman is a value play because we get him at plus odds.
It is also a smart play because he enters today's game in good form -- he is enjoying a three-game hitting streak.
Plus, he's slugging .846 against Waldichuk's favorite pitches from lefties.
Thus, let's count on him to achieve at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Kevin Newman to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
- Jake Woodford doesn't appear ready for professional baseball, but the Cardinals lack other options.
- Woodford's stuff is all very hittable.
- Jason Heyward hits Woodford's favorite pitches well.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jake Woodford, who truly doesn't belong in professional baseball, is starting for the Cardinals today.
The Cardinals just don't have many options. They lack effective starting pitching because they dealt away or lost key starting pitchers in previous years.
It would sure be nice for Cardinals fans to have studs like Zac Gallen back, but today they are stuck with Woodford, who carries a 5.47 ERA into today's game.
He is a great pitcher for opponents' hitter props because as evident in the fact that he has surrendered five or more hits in all of his starts.
His opposing hard contact rate has been high especially in his last two outings, which reflects the extent to which batters are making good contact against his pitches.
Woodford relies on a variety of pitches, foremost in terms of frequency are his sinker and sweep.
Despite his inclination to rely most on these two pitches, batters thrive against them, slugging .500 against his sinker and .406 against his sweeper.
But Woodford's third- and fourth-favorite options fare no batter.
Opponents slug 1.167 against his curveball and 1.273 against his fastball.
Woodford simply lacks challenging pitches to offer.
My Favorite Dodgers Batter
I especially like Los Angeles' Jason Heyward to inflict damage on the vulnerable Woodford.
Heyward enters today's game in good form, having accrued two hits in each of his last two games. He also hit a double in his last game.
Plus, he slugs .786 against Woodford's favorite pitches from righties.
So, we should expect him to manage at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Jason Heyward to record 2+ total bases at +130 with Bovada
