3 Player Props April 23: Anthony Edwards Is A Scoring Machine
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Shooting Volume
For this player prop bet, I am interested in investing in the number of three-pointers that Atlanta's De'Andre Hunter makes.
In order for us to have confidence that Hunter makes threes, we need to know that he'll attempt a high number of threes.
More three-point attempts entail more opportunities to make more three-pointers.
What I like about Hunter is that he's consistently getting three-point attempts.
He got four in Game 1, nine in Game 2, and six in Game 3.
While he isn't making many of them, the fact that he's still attempting plenty of threes shows that he still has confidence in his shot and that his teammates still believe in his shooting ability.
Currently, he is converting 21.1-percent of his three-point attempts.
Hunter is capable of doing much better than this.
During the regular season, he shot 35 percent from deep.
One might wonder whether he is more comfortable in the regular season, but he shot 46.2 percent from deep during the last postseason.
So, he's getting the attempts and he doesn't have the playoff jitters. Could it be that Boston is guarding him closely?
This isn't it, either. Hunter is attempting 4.7 wide-open threes per playoff game.
His problem is merely that he is converting only 21.4 percent of those wide-open attempts.
Statistically speaking, we must expect him to improve upon that figure.
He'll continue to get the looks especially because he hasn't punished Boston yet.
Plus, at least two of his teammates have a stronger reputation for three-point shooting.
Let's split our standard unit on the following two bets.
Best Bet: De'Andre Hunter to make 2+ three-pointers at +110 with Bovada & De'Andre Hunter to make 3+ three-pointers at +400 with Bovada
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Anthony Edwards, Scoring Machine
The over/under for Minnesota's rising star Anthony Edwards might seem absurdly high.
But Edwards has blown past his player prop point total in each of his team's last two games.
In Game 1, Minnesota mustered 80 points in a game where Edwards was not so involved offensively.
Things changed in Game 2: Edwards attempted eight more field goals, scored 41 points, and Minnesota scored 113 points.
We saw more of the same in Game 3: Edwards' offensive volume was extremely high, he finished with 36 points, and Minnesota again scored a total of points that it requires to have a chance at winning.
All we need today is for him to score 28 points.
He'll continue to do so because Minnesota is going to keep featuring him on offense.
It's obvious from the difference in the Timberwolves' scoring between Game 1 and Games 2 and 3 that their offense reaches a different level when Edwards is maximally involved on offense.
Edwards also matches up well against Denver's defense.
He is attempting most of his shots within five feet of the basket.
Denver, on defense, lacks rim protection. The Nuggets were third-worst in the regular season at limiting field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Edwards has always been known for his rim-attacking prowess.
He'll continue to thrive at the basket especially via the dribble drive.
His shooting -- he is also getting the green light to attempt many threes -- makes him all the harder to guard, because defenders can't just protect against his dribble drive potential.
Anthony Edwards over 27.5 points at -117 with Bovada
Karl-Anthony Towns
Today's game presents the ideal opportunity to fade Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns.
He is coming off a game in which he shot well. This shooting performance will motivate bettors to have confidence in him because bettors tend to attach the most significance to the most recent events -- this is called having recency bias.
The over/under for Towns' point total today is 21.5.
Despite what he did in his last game, this seems high to me because he combined for 21 points in Games 1 and 2.
We should tend to expect the weaker version of Towns to show up because this is the postseason, not the regular season.
In his career in the regular season, Towns averages 23 points per game.
Conversely, in his postseason career, he scores 18.2 points per game.
His over/under is clearly being driven by his regular season success, which doesn't account for his shortcomings during the playoffs.
One should not, however, see Towns' lack of success as squarely a product of his individual issues.
For Denver, especially Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon have collaborated to limit Towns' production.
He has indeed made it a bit easy for them, attempting more threes that one might like him to.
But he also isn't Minnesota's main weapon in the paint anymore.
That main weapon is Edwards with his driving prowess, while Towns could help stretch the floor.
Towns has actually shot above himself from deep in both of his last games.
So he could also regress as a three-point shooter in addition to continuing to struggle in general to be productive offensively.
Best Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns under 21.5 points at -108 with Bovada
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Shooting Volume
For this player prop bet, I am interested in investing in the number of three-pointers that Atlanta's De'Andre Hunter makes.
In order for us to have confidence that Hunter makes threes, we need to know that he'll attempt a high number of threes.
More three-point attempts entail more opportunities to make more three-pointers.
What I like about Hunter is that he's consistently getting three-point attempts.
He got four in Game 1, nine in Game 2, and six in Game 3.
While he isn't making many of them, the fact that he's still attempting plenty of threes shows that he still has confidence in his shot and that his teammates still believe in his shooting ability.
Currently, he is converting 21.1-percent of his three-point attempts.
Hunter is capable of doing much better than this.
During the regular season, he shot 35 percent from deep.
One might wonder whether he is more comfortable in the regular season, but he shot 46.2 percent from deep during the last postseason.
So, he's getting the attempts and he doesn't have the playoff jitters. Could it be that Boston is guarding him closely?
This isn't it, either. Hunter is attempting 4.7 wide-open threes per playoff game.
His problem is merely that he is converting only 21.4 percent of those wide-open attempts.
Statistically speaking, we must expect him to improve upon that figure.
He'll continue to get the looks especially because he hasn't punished Boston yet.
Plus, at least two of his teammates have a stronger reputation for three-point shooting.
Let's split our standard unit on the following two bets.
Best Bet: De'Andre Hunter to make 2+ three-pointers at +110 with Bovada & De'Andre Hunter to make 3+ three-pointers at +400 with Bovada
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Anthony Edwards, Scoring Machine
The over/under for Minnesota's rising star Anthony Edwards might seem absurdly high.
But Edwards has blown past his player prop point total in each of his team's last two games.
In Game 1, Minnesota mustered 80 points in a game where Edwards was not so involved offensively.
Things changed in Game 2: Edwards attempted eight more field goals, scored 41 points, and Minnesota scored 113 points.
We saw more of the same in Game 3: Edwards' offensive volume was extremely high, he finished with 36 points, and Minnesota again scored a total of points that it requires to have a chance at winning.
All we need today is for him to score 28 points.
He'll continue to do so because Minnesota is going to keep featuring him on offense.
It's obvious from the difference in the Timberwolves' scoring between Game 1 and Games 2 and 3 that their offense reaches a different level when Edwards is maximally involved on offense.
Edwards also matches up well against Denver's defense.
He is attempting most of his shots within five feet of the basket.
Denver, on defense, lacks rim protection. The Nuggets were third-worst in the regular season at limiting field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Edwards has always been known for his rim-attacking prowess.
He'll continue to thrive at the basket especially via the dribble drive.
His shooting -- he is also getting the green light to attempt many threes -- makes him all the harder to guard, because defenders can't just protect against his dribble drive potential.
Anthony Edwards over 27.5 points at -117 with Bovada
Karl-Anthony Towns
Today's game presents the ideal opportunity to fade Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns.
He is coming off a game in which he shot well. This shooting performance will motivate bettors to have confidence in him because bettors tend to attach the most significance to the most recent events -- this is called having recency bias.
The over/under for Towns' point total today is 21.5.
Despite what he did in his last game, this seems high to me because he combined for 21 points in Games 1 and 2.
We should tend to expect the weaker version of Towns to show up because this is the postseason, not the regular season.
In his career in the regular season, Towns averages 23 points per game.
Conversely, in his postseason career, he scores 18.2 points per game.
His over/under is clearly being driven by his regular season success, which doesn't account for his shortcomings during the playoffs.
One should not, however, see Towns' lack of success as squarely a product of his individual issues.
For Denver, especially Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon have collaborated to limit Towns' production.
He has indeed made it a bit easy for them, attempting more threes that one might like him to.
But he also isn't Minnesota's main weapon in the paint anymore.
That main weapon is Edwards with his driving prowess, while Towns could help stretch the floor.
Towns has actually shot above himself from deep in both of his last games.
So he could also regress as a three-point shooter in addition to continuing to struggle in general to be productive offensively.
Best Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns under 21.5 points at -108 with Bovada
