3 Player Props April 23: Seattle's Jarred Kelenic Is Criminally Underrated
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Jack Flaherty might seem worth relying on today given his attractive ERA.
But he really isn't substantially different from the pitcher who, last year, yielded a 4.25 ERA.
In fact, his 5.51 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) suggests that he's even worse.
Relative to last year, his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. While he's allowing fewer home runs, he's allowed one in both of his last two games.
He has made more of an effort to throw his pitches in the strike zone, which is good for prop bets that require opposing batters to get a hit.
Flaherty's stuff is indeed hittable.
His two favorite pitches are his fastball and slider, both of which combine to make up 71.2 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to last year, his fastball velo and spin rate are both down.
Plus, heat maps show that he often leaves this pitch and his slider in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Seattle's Jarred Kelenic
Oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the superb improvement that Seattle's Jarred Kelenic has made since last year.
Incredibly, his BA is up .141 and his slugging rate is up .326.
Given the rapidity with which he has improved so strongly, the prices on his player props are way off.
Today's game presents a particularly strong opportunity to take advantage of the value in Kelenic, because he slugs .658 against Flaherty's pitches from righties.
For this prop bet to hit, we need him to achieve at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases at +175 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for San Diego?
Yu Darvish starts for the Padres.
On April 4, Darvish succeeded against these very same Diamondbacks.
Therefore, he might seem to be reliable today.
But one has to consider how he managed to succeed in that game.
Statistically speaking, he was fortunate.
In that game, he yielded a .250 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating zero soft contact.
His 5.76 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he truly performed.
Plus, he benefitted from playing that game in San Diego.
His history in Arizona's ballpark changes the outlook completely.
Historically, he performs terribly here, as evident in his 4.25 ERA in Chase Field.
Darvish's Profile
Darvish should be giving up more hits than he has been.
He does have a significant variety of pitches with which to try to stifle batters.
But heat maps show the frequency with which he leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
In particular, his sweeper looks problematic, although it is his favorite pitch.
It yields a .457 xSLG (expected slugging rate), which is indicative of batters' ability to achieve extra-base hits off this pitch.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
Arizona's Ketel Marte is worth investing in almost no matter who he's facing.
He enters today on a six-game hit streak as part of which he has four multi-hit games.
Today does present a particularly good opportunity for him because, in 26 career at-bats against Darvish, he enjoys a .346 BA and .615 slugging rate.
We can count on him to get us at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for the Mets?
Tylor Megill starts for the Mets.
He might seem trustworthy giving his attractive ERA.
But he has benefitted from multiple things that are statistically unsustainable.
For starters, he is yielding a .254 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while generating soft contact less than 10 percent of the time.
As opposing batters continue to make good contact against his pitches, they are sure to get more hits.
Plus, his strand rate is also improbably high -- he is leaving 94.3 percent of opposing runners on base.
This high strand rate shows that his attractive ERA is deceptive because it creates an impression of success against a pitcher who is due to fail.
Indeed, his 5.79 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he is actually performing on an individual level.
Plus, even his surface-level stats are only attractive when he pitches at home.
Megill has been a different pitcher on the road, where he has allowed five earned runs (at the Marlins and Dodgers) compared to zero runs at home (against the Marlins and Padres).
Good Value Pick
San Francisco's LaMonte Wade Jr. is being underrated by oddsmakers.
As a lefty, though, he is in a good spot today because Megill is a righty and he slugs .417 against right-handed pitching.
Megill indeed struggles against left-handed batters, yielding a .324 BA and .486 slugging rate to them.
Plus,Wade Jr. is already 3-for-6 with a 1.167 slugging rate with Megill on the mound.
Let's trust that he gets us at least two singles or an extra-base hit today.
Best Bet: LaMonte Wade Jr. to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for the Cardinals?
Jack Flaherty might seem worth relying on today given his attractive ERA.
But he really isn't substantially different from the pitcher who, last year, yielded a 4.25 ERA.
In fact, his 5.51 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) suggests that he's even worse.
Relative to last year, his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. While he's allowing fewer home runs, he's allowed one in both of his last two games.
He has made more of an effort to throw his pitches in the strike zone, which is good for prop bets that require opposing batters to get a hit.
Flaherty's stuff is indeed hittable.
His two favorite pitches are his fastball and slider, both of which combine to make up 71.2 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to last year, his fastball velo and spin rate are both down.
Plus, heat maps show that he often leaves this pitch and his slider in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Seattle's Jarred Kelenic
Oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the superb improvement that Seattle's Jarred Kelenic has made since last year.
Incredibly, his BA is up .141 and his slugging rate is up .326.
Given the rapidity with which he has improved so strongly, the prices on his player props are way off.
Today's game presents a particularly strong opportunity to take advantage of the value in Kelenic, because he slugs .658 against Flaherty's pitches from righties.
For this prop bet to hit, we need him to achieve at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases at +175 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for San Diego?
Yu Darvish starts for the Padres.
On April 4, Darvish succeeded against these very same Diamondbacks.
Therefore, he might seem to be reliable today.
But one has to consider how he managed to succeed in that game.
Statistically speaking, he was fortunate.
In that game, he yielded a .250 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite generating zero soft contact.
His 5.76 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he truly performed.
Plus, he benefitted from playing that game in San Diego.
His history in Arizona's ballpark changes the outlook completely.
Historically, he performs terribly here, as evident in his 4.25 ERA in Chase Field.
Darvish's Profile
Darvish should be giving up more hits than he has been.
He does have a significant variety of pitches with which to try to stifle batters.
But heat maps show the frequency with which he leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
In particular, his sweeper looks problematic, although it is his favorite pitch.
It yields a .457 xSLG (expected slugging rate), which is indicative of batters' ability to achieve extra-base hits off this pitch.
My Favorite Diamondbacks' Batter
Arizona's Ketel Marte is worth investing in almost no matter who he's facing.
He enters today on a six-game hit streak as part of which he has four multi-hit games.
Today does present a particularly good opportunity for him because, in 26 career at-bats against Darvish, he enjoys a .346 BA and .615 slugging rate.
We can count on him to get us at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for the Mets?
Tylor Megill starts for the Mets.
He might seem trustworthy giving his attractive ERA.
But he has benefitted from multiple things that are statistically unsustainable.
For starters, he is yielding a .254 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while generating soft contact less than 10 percent of the time.
As opposing batters continue to make good contact against his pitches, they are sure to get more hits.
Plus, his strand rate is also improbably high -- he is leaving 94.3 percent of opposing runners on base.
This high strand rate shows that his attractive ERA is deceptive because it creates an impression of success against a pitcher who is due to fail.
Indeed, his 5.79 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he is actually performing on an individual level.
Plus, even his surface-level stats are only attractive when he pitches at home.
Megill has been a different pitcher on the road, where he has allowed five earned runs (at the Marlins and Dodgers) compared to zero runs at home (against the Marlins and Padres).
Good Value Pick
San Francisco's LaMonte Wade Jr. is being underrated by oddsmakers.
As a lefty, though, he is in a good spot today because Megill is a righty and he slugs .417 against right-handed pitching.
Megill indeed struggles against left-handed batters, yielding a .324 BA and .486 slugging rate to them.
Plus,Wade Jr. is already 3-for-6 with a 1.167 slugging rate with Megill on the mound.
Let's trust that he gets us at least two singles or an extra-base hit today.
Best Bet: LaMonte Wade Jr. to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
