NHL Picks Today: Sunday, January 18
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings
The odds represent the difference between each team’s record, but they misrepresent how good each team truly is. Detroit has a -10 goal differential, winning as frequently as it has due to its absurd level of success in one-goal games. The Senators have a better goal differential because of their ability to score many goals. What does the most to separate these two teams, though, is expected goals against. Whereas Detroit ranks 22nd in the category, Ottawa actually ranks number one. Based on the quality of shots that they allow, the Senators should be allowing way fewer goals.
Psychologically speaking, this is the perfect spot for Ottawa to translate expectation into reality. The Senators led by two goals with five minutes left in their last game before collapsing inexplicably. This collapse literally transpired yesterday, so expect them to play with anger, giving them a psychological edge that Detroit lacks. The Senators also generally have a favorable history in back-to-backs, most recently beating the Rangers by four goals in the second leg of a back-to-back. Except against the NHL’s best team and except in a second leg in which they were riding high after a game in which they dominated, they are undefeated in second legs.
With an offense that has scored 13 goals in its last two games, with a severely underrated defense, and with a tremendous psychological edge in a favorable spot, Ottawa is a great underdog tonight.
St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers
Don’t let St. Louis’ two-game winning streak fool you. We have known all year what the Blues are: a team with one of the worst defenses and a team that, especially without key center Robert Thomas, does not have nearly a good enough offense to make up for its abysmal defense. During the season, the Blues have experienced multiple two-game win streaks during which they appeared to turn over a new leaf. But then they returned, in dramatic fashion, to being the bad, losing team that they are. In the game following a two-game win streak, the Blues are 0-4. They lost all four games by three goals or more. In their last game in this spot, they actually had Thomas but still lost by four goals to a lowly Chicago team that didn’t have its best player.
| Matchup | Pick | Odds | Confidence Level | Sportsbook |
| Senators vs. Red Wings | Senators ML | +119 | Highest | BetOnline |
| Blues vs. Oilers | Oilers -1.5 | +152 | Highest | Heritage |
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings
The odds represent the difference between each team’s record, but they misrepresent how good each team truly is. Detroit has a -10 goal differential, winning as frequently as it has due to its absurd level of success in one-goal games. The Senators have a better goal differential because of their ability to score many goals. What does the most to separate these two teams, though, is expected goals against. Whereas Detroit ranks 22nd in the category, Ottawa actually ranks number one. Based on the quality of shots that they allow, the Senators should be allowing way fewer goals.
Psychologically speaking, this is the perfect spot for Ottawa to translate expectation into reality. The Senators led by two goals with five minutes left in their last game before collapsing inexplicably. This collapse literally transpired yesterday, so expect them to play with anger, giving them a psychological edge that Detroit lacks. The Senators also generally have a favorable history in back-to-backs, most recently beating the Rangers by four goals in the second leg of a back-to-back. Except against the NHL’s best team and except in a second leg in which they were riding high after a game in which they dominated, they are undefeated in second legs.
With an offense that has scored 13 goals in its last two games, with a severely underrated defense, and with a tremendous psychological edge in a favorable spot, Ottawa is a great underdog tonight.
St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers
Don’t let St. Louis’ two-game winning streak fool you. We have known all year what the Blues are: a team with one of the worst defenses and a team that, especially without key center Robert Thomas, does not have nearly a good enough offense to make up for its abysmal defense. During the season, the Blues have experienced multiple two-game win streaks during which they appeared to turn over a new leaf. But then they returned, in dramatic fashion, to being the bad, losing team that they are. In the game following a two-game win streak, the Blues are 0-4. They lost all four games by three goals or more. In their last game in this spot, they actually had Thomas but still lost by four goals to a lowly Chicago team that didn’t have its best player.