MLB Best Bets for August 10: Cloudy Night Ahead for Sonny Gray
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Bounce-Back Upcoming
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals today.
While his latest starts haven't gone well, there's no physical reason for his poor streak to continue.
Until it stops, bettors will be eager to pour money on the team that he's facing.
Gore vs. Giants Batters
Today, it will be unwise to bet on the Giants, because Gore's outlook against them is great.
His best bounce-back starts this year have come on the road. Fittingly, San Francisco's venue is one that he is comfortable in.
In his one career start there, he allowed one run in six innings while picking up the win.
Overall, he thrives against Giants batters. They collectively bat .167 and slug .312 against him.
One must expect them to flounder whenever they face Gore because they rank dead-last with a .321 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Gore's last two opponents ranked top-seven against his favorite pitches from lefties, so he gets a radically easier test today.
As evident in his outings against the Marlins, Orioles, and, indeed, the Giants, he reliably performs excellently against soft matchups.
A Washed-Up Pitcher
Justin Verlander starts for the Giants today.
He will always count as a big name, skewing the odds in his team's favor.
But he hasn't lived up to his reputation. His command isn't what it used to be, as evident in his high walk rate. He isn't striking out as many batters as he used to, either. Opponents are also generating hard contact against more of his pitches.
While his most recent starts are good, they came against the Pirates and their last-place offense.
Verlander vs. Nationals Batters
In the form of Washington's lineup, Verlander gets a much tougher test today.
The Nationals have a solid outlook today because their lineup has proven that it loves to face Verlander.
Collectively, they bat .366 and slug .585 against him.
The Nationals' lineup will help ensure that they lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Five ML at +102 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Pfaadt's heat maps do a lot to explain why he struggles so much despite the high rate of strikes that he throws.
They show that he very often leaves pitches in the more dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Batters against him can be selective because they know that they'll get great pitches to hit. When they make contact, it will likely be hard.
Pfaadt vs. Rockies Batters
Colorado's lineup is already familiar with Pfaadt.
Collectively, the Rockies bat .333 and slug .472 against him.
Since their turnaround on June 2, they have proven to match up well against him, ranking eighth with a .441 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Team Total Over
For good extra measure, Arizona's bullpen is one of the worst, ranking fourth-to-last.
The Diamondbacks do have a reliable reliever in Andrew Saalfrank, but he pitched an inning both yesterday and the day before, so he'll likely either sit out or suffer from the extra familiarity with him that Colorado's lineup has gained since Friday.
If the Rockies don't score enough runs against Arizona's starter, then they will against its bullpen.
Best Bet: Rockies Team Total Over 3.5 Runs at -115 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park
Declined Dylan Cease
San Diego starts Dylan Cease today.
His reputation is strong, so bettors will be eager to back him after he looked great in his last start, which will make them think that he is back to being great.
But Cease simply keeps disappointing people, as recently evident when his poor command contributed to the loss that he took on July 23 after he had shut out his opponent on July 18.
His starts on June 16 and June 27 provide further recent evidence of his ongoing tendency to struggle after a good performance.
While the flashes of greatness are there, the consistency is not.
Today, one must expect a let-down from him, especially in view of the matchup.
The Matchup
Boston's lineup matches up superbly against Cease.
The Red Sox rank ninth with a .442 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
I also like the Red Sox because of how well their starter today Brayan Bello matches up against San Diego's lineup.
The Padres rank 26th with a .392 slugging rate against Bello's favorite pitches from righties.
Full-Game Play
San Diego is favored heavily in this game in part because of its highly-ranked bullpen.
But the Padres' bullpen is in a terrible spot today after it threw eight innings yesterday. Their starter lasted all of two innings, leaving San Diego to wear down its bullpen to the extent that its quality advantage over Boston's bullpen has eroded.
The Red Sox do have good and fresh relievers available today, making them worthy of a full-game investment.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +122 with BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium
Starting Pitcher Mismatch
I like the Cubs with Shota Imanaga starting opposite Sonny Gray of the Cardinals.
Whereas the Cubs bat .297 and slug .525 collectively against Gray, St. Louis' group of hitters bats .160 and slugs .260 against Imanaga.
In terms of pitcher or lineup form, there's no reason to avert optimistic thoughts about Chicago's outlook today.
If anything, it's worth observing that the Cubs seem to really emphasize finishing a series on a strong note.
They've won their last four series finales. In these games, they scored five, ten, five, and six runs, respectively.
Because for some reason they bothered to deploy multiple good relievers while they were blowing out St. Louis last night, it will be best to confine ourselves to a first-five investment.
Best Bet: Cubs First-Five ML at -121 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Bounce-Back Upcoming
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals today.
While his latest starts haven't gone well, there's no physical reason for his poor streak to continue.
Until it stops, bettors will be eager to pour money on the team that he's facing.
Gore vs. Giants Batters
Today, it will be unwise to bet on the Giants, because Gore's outlook against them is great.
His best bounce-back starts this year have come on the road. Fittingly, San Francisco's venue is one that he is comfortable in.
In his one career start there, he allowed one run in six innings while picking up the win.
Overall, he thrives against Giants batters. They collectively bat .167 and slug .312 against him.
One must expect them to flounder whenever they face Gore because they rank dead-last with a .321 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Gore's last two opponents ranked top-seven against his favorite pitches from lefties, so he gets a radically easier test today.
As evident in his outings against the Marlins, Orioles, and, indeed, the Giants, he reliably performs excellently against soft matchups.
A Washed-Up Pitcher
Justin Verlander starts for the Giants today.
He will always count as a big name, skewing the odds in his team's favor.
But he hasn't lived up to his reputation. His command isn't what it used to be, as evident in his high walk rate. He isn't striking out as many batters as he used to, either. Opponents are also generating hard contact against more of his pitches.
While his most recent starts are good, they came against the Pirates and their last-place offense.
Verlander vs. Nationals Batters
In the form of Washington's lineup, Verlander gets a much tougher test today.
The Nationals have a solid outlook today because their lineup has proven that it loves to face Verlander.
Collectively, they bat .366 and slug .585 against him.
The Nationals' lineup will help ensure that they lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Five ML at +102 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Pfaadt's heat maps do a lot to explain why he struggles so much despite the high rate of strikes that he throws.
They show that he very often leaves pitches in the more dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Batters against him can be selective because they know that they'll get great pitches to hit. When they make contact, it will likely be hard.
Pfaadt vs. Rockies Batters
Colorado's lineup is already familiar with Pfaadt.
Collectively, the Rockies bat .333 and slug .472 against him.
Since their turnaround on June 2, they have proven to match up well against him, ranking eighth with a .441 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Team Total Over
For good extra measure, Arizona's bullpen is one of the worst, ranking fourth-to-last.
The Diamondbacks do have a reliable reliever in Andrew Saalfrank, but he pitched an inning both yesterday and the day before, so he'll likely either sit out or suffer from the extra familiarity with him that Colorado's lineup has gained since Friday.
If the Rockies don't score enough runs against Arizona's starter, then they will against its bullpen.
Best Bet: Rockies Team Total Over 3.5 Runs at -115 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park
Declined Dylan Cease
San Diego starts Dylan Cease today.
His reputation is strong, so bettors will be eager to back him after he looked great in his last start, which will make them think that he is back to being great.
But Cease simply keeps disappointing people, as recently evident when his poor command contributed to the loss that he took on July 23 after he had shut out his opponent on July 18.
His starts on June 16 and June 27 provide further recent evidence of his ongoing tendency to struggle after a good performance.
While the flashes of greatness are there, the consistency is not.
Today, one must expect a let-down from him, especially in view of the matchup.
The Matchup
Boston's lineup matches up superbly against Cease.
The Red Sox rank ninth with a .442 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
I also like the Red Sox because of how well their starter today Brayan Bello matches up against San Diego's lineup.
The Padres rank 26th with a .392 slugging rate against Bello's favorite pitches from righties.
Full-Game Play
San Diego is favored heavily in this game in part because of its highly-ranked bullpen.
But the Padres' bullpen is in a terrible spot today after it threw eight innings yesterday. Their starter lasted all of two innings, leaving San Diego to wear down its bullpen to the extent that its quality advantage over Boston's bullpen has eroded.
The Red Sox do have good and fresh relievers available today, making them worthy of a full-game investment.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +122 with BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium
Starting Pitcher Mismatch
I like the Cubs with Shota Imanaga starting opposite Sonny Gray of the Cardinals.
Whereas the Cubs bat .297 and slug .525 collectively against Gray, St. Louis' group of hitters bats .160 and slugs .260 against Imanaga.
In terms of pitcher or lineup form, there's no reason to avert optimistic thoughts about Chicago's outlook today.
If anything, it's worth observing that the Cubs seem to really emphasize finishing a series on a strong note.
They've won their last four series finales. In these games, they scored five, ten, five, and six runs, respectively.
Because for some reason they bothered to deploy multiple good relievers while they were blowing out St. Louis last night, it will be best to confine ourselves to a first-five investment.
Best Bet: Cubs First-Five ML at -121 with BetOnline