NBA Best Bets for December 1: Give The Spurs Their Due Respect
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
The Total
As of Sunday morning, the total for this game is listed at 220.
I just don't get this number.
Excluding overtime, none of Houston's last four games reached this total.
Of OKC's last five games, only one of them reached this total. That game came against Sacramento, which has a mediocre defense.
Oddsmakers are not appreciating how good both of these teams are on defense — the Thunder rank number one in defensive rating, and the Rockets rank number two in the category.
Houston's Offense
On offense, Houston is not going to score a lot by shooting three-pointers.
As it was last year, three-point shooting is a problem for this team.
The Rockets are not good at making threes — they rank 25th in three-point percentage — and they are disinclined to attempt them.
Instead, the Rockets primarily want to score at the basket.
Their center Alperen Sengun primarily wants to score in the space around the basket, and several of his teammates like to drive inside in order to attempt to score in this space.
Overall, Houston attempts the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
OKC's Paint and Rim Protection
The Thunder are uniquely dedicated to protecting the paint.
This dedication was apparent even when center Isaiah Hartenstein was injured.
Even when Hartenstein was absent, Jalen Williams would invest a lot of effort into guarding bigs, and his teammates would help him defend the paint by harassing ball-handlers in this space.
Their help defense becomes particularly aggressive when opposing ball-handlers enter the paint. For example, an off-ball defender will lurk at a ball-handler in order to deter him from progressing to the basket.
Hartenstein is in any case back, and so the Thunder are able to make use of his characteristically solid paint defense.
Because the Thunder prioritize protecting the paint, they allow the fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
They also allow the lowest field goal percentage in this space.
Moreover, they do a great job of limiting field goal attempts in this space.
Thunder Offense
OKC's offense will not be any more comfortable than Houston's.
The Thunder love to attempt three-pointers. They attempt the tenth-most threes per game.
Houston's defense features feisty perimeter defenders, such as the characteristically defensive-minded Dillon Brooks.
The Rockets allow wide-open three-point attempts with the third-lowest frequency and allow the third-fewest three-point attempts in general.
These stats indicate that they do a great job of contesting three-point attempts and of running teams off the three-point line.
Overall, they allow the fewest made three-pointers per game.
Takeaway
Houston primarily wants to score at the basket but will by stifled by OKC's dedicated rim and paint protection.
OKC primarily wants to shoot threes but will struggle against Houston's stout perimeter defense.
Both defenses will thrive in a game whose posted total is much too high.
Best Bet: Under 220 at -105 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
The Spread
Sacramento is favored as heavily as it is because oddsmakers are slow to make adjustments.
Whereas the Kings have lost five of their last six games, the Spurs have won four of their last five.
San Antonio's victims include the very strong Thunder and Warriors, whereas the Kings have lost to losing Atlanta and Portland teams.
The Kings do not deserve to be favored in tonight's game, and yet they are.
Sacramento's Defense Against Centers
One of Sacramento's many problems is its defense.
The Kings are doing a poor job of guarding centers.
Most recently, when they lost to the Trail Blazers, center Deandre Ayton was Portland's leading scorer with 26 points.
Their second-to-last opponent features an offensively weak starting center. But three games ago, when they gave up 130 points to OKC, they allowed Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein to achieve his highest point total of the season, 19 points.
Why This Matters
Sacramento's inability to guard centers creates a strong outlook for San Antonio's offense, which is led by a center.
Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring.
He will be immensely comfortable on offense in this game.
San Antonio's Shooters
The Spurs' offense as a whole will likewise be comfortable in this game.
They are shooting more threes this year. So far, they are one of eight teams to average over 40 three-point attempts per game.
Shooting threes is something that they are especially comfortable doing now that shooting guard Devin Vassell is healthy. He converts three-point attempts at a 40 percent rate.
San Antonio's shooters have a great outlook against Sacramento's perimeter defense.
The Kings allow the fourth-most open three-point attempts per game and the fifth-most three-point attempts in general.
These statistics indicate that they struggle to contest three-point attempts and to run teams off the three-point line.
Sacramento's Outlook on Offense
The Kings do not shoot well from behind the arc, but they will also struggle to score inside the arc today.
San Antonio boasts an excellent rim protector in Wembanyama, who was an NBA All-Defensive First Team selection last season.
Moreover, the Spurs do not allow a lot of field goals in the mid-range spaces.
Takeaway
The Spurs will thrive on offense both with their center at the basket and with their three-point shooting.
Sacramento, which will struggle to score inside or outside the arc, will fail to keep pace.
San Antonio has anyhow been a much stronger team in general, so the spread feels quite generous even regardless of its matchup edge.
Best Bet: Spurs +5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
The Total
As of Sunday morning, the total for this game is listed at 220.
I just don't get this number.
Excluding overtime, none of Houston's last four games reached this total.
Of OKC's last five games, only one of them reached this total. That game came against Sacramento, which has a mediocre defense.
Oddsmakers are not appreciating how good both of these teams are on defense — the Thunder rank number one in defensive rating, and the Rockets rank number two in the category.
Houston's Offense
On offense, Houston is not going to score a lot by shooting three-pointers.
As it was last year, three-point shooting is a problem for this team.
The Rockets are not good at making threes — they rank 25th in three-point percentage — and they are disinclined to attempt them.
Instead, the Rockets primarily want to score at the basket.
Their center Alperen Sengun primarily wants to score in the space around the basket, and several of his teammates like to drive inside in order to attempt to score in this space.
Overall, Houston attempts the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
OKC's Paint and Rim Protection
The Thunder are uniquely dedicated to protecting the paint.
This dedication was apparent even when center Isaiah Hartenstein was injured.
Even when Hartenstein was absent, Jalen Williams would invest a lot of effort into guarding bigs, and his teammates would help him defend the paint by harassing ball-handlers in this space.
Their help defense becomes particularly aggressive when opposing ball-handlers enter the paint. For example, an off-ball defender will lurk at a ball-handler in order to deter him from progressing to the basket.
Hartenstein is in any case back, and so the Thunder are able to make use of his characteristically solid paint defense.
Because the Thunder prioritize protecting the paint, they allow the fewest field goals made per game within five feet of the basket.
They also allow the lowest field goal percentage in this space.
Moreover, they do a great job of limiting field goal attempts in this space.
Thunder Offense
OKC's offense will not be any more comfortable than Houston's.
The Thunder love to attempt three-pointers. They attempt the tenth-most threes per game.
Houston's defense features feisty perimeter defenders, such as the characteristically defensive-minded Dillon Brooks.
The Rockets allow wide-open three-point attempts with the third-lowest frequency and allow the third-fewest three-point attempts in general.
These stats indicate that they do a great job of contesting three-point attempts and of running teams off the three-point line.
Overall, they allow the fewest made three-pointers per game.
Takeaway
Houston primarily wants to score at the basket but will by stifled by OKC's dedicated rim and paint protection.
OKC primarily wants to shoot threes but will struggle against Houston's stout perimeter defense.
Both defenses will thrive in a game whose posted total is much too high.
Best Bet: Under 220 at -105 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
The Spread
Sacramento is favored as heavily as it is because oddsmakers are slow to make adjustments.
Whereas the Kings have lost five of their last six games, the Spurs have won four of their last five.
San Antonio's victims include the very strong Thunder and Warriors, whereas the Kings have lost to losing Atlanta and Portland teams.
The Kings do not deserve to be favored in tonight's game, and yet they are.
Sacramento's Defense Against Centers
One of Sacramento's many problems is its defense.
The Kings are doing a poor job of guarding centers.
Most recently, when they lost to the Trail Blazers, center Deandre Ayton was Portland's leading scorer with 26 points.
Their second-to-last opponent features an offensively weak starting center. But three games ago, when they gave up 130 points to OKC, they allowed Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein to achieve his highest point total of the season, 19 points.
Why This Matters
Sacramento's inability to guard centers creates a strong outlook for San Antonio's offense, which is led by a center.
Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring.
He will be immensely comfortable on offense in this game.
San Antonio's Shooters
The Spurs' offense as a whole will likewise be comfortable in this game.
They are shooting more threes this year. So far, they are one of eight teams to average over 40 three-point attempts per game.
Shooting threes is something that they are especially comfortable doing now that shooting guard Devin Vassell is healthy. He converts three-point attempts at a 40 percent rate.
San Antonio's shooters have a great outlook against Sacramento's perimeter defense.
The Kings allow the fourth-most open three-point attempts per game and the fifth-most three-point attempts in general.
These statistics indicate that they struggle to contest three-point attempts and to run teams off the three-point line.
Sacramento's Outlook on Offense
The Kings do not shoot well from behind the arc, but they will also struggle to score inside the arc today.
San Antonio boasts an excellent rim protector in Wembanyama, who was an NBA All-Defensive First Team selection last season.
Moreover, the Spurs do not allow a lot of field goals in the mid-range spaces.
Takeaway
The Spurs will thrive on offense both with their center at the basket and with their three-point shooting.
Sacramento, which will struggle to score inside or outside the arc, will fail to keep pace.
San Antonio has anyhow been a much stronger team in general, so the spread feels quite generous even regardless of its matchup edge.
Best Bet: Spurs +5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
