NBA Best Bets for November 24: The Nets are Kings in Sacramento
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics
Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. at TD Garden
Boston's Defensive Vulnerabilities
Boston is heavily favored in this game despite the fact that multiple decisive matchup factors go against them.
For starters, the Celtics have played some of their worst games against teams that rank top-ten in both three-point attempts and top-ten at limiting opposing made three-pointers.
They struggle, in other words, against teams that prioritize both shooting threes and guarding the perimeter on defense.
To be specific, they lost by six at home to Golden State.
Moreover, the Nets took them to overtime.
They have also struggled against teams that prioritize getting to the rim, as evident in their shocking home loss to Atlanta.
Now, Boston has a well-regarded defense, but there are two things to note here.
One, teams that are particularly good at procuring three-point opportunities are able to do so against Boston.
Two, as good as Boston's defense is, it is not only vulnerable to good three-point shooters, but also its rim protection is vulnerable because key rim protector Kristaps Porzingis is still injured.
Minnesota's Three-Point Shooting
Minnesota is a team that excels at procuring favorable three-point attempts.
The Timberwolves attempt open three-pointers with the third-highest frequency.
They feature strong ball movement, with players moving well without the ball by, for example, coming off screens.
With multiple dangerous rim-attackers, they'll sometimes work inside-out.
They'll also work for open three-point attempts by operating in isolation and creating their own shot.
Partly because they get so many great looks, the Timberwolves rank sixth in three-point percentage, which is several spots higher than Boston.
Minnesota's Perimeter Defense
On the other side, the Timberwolves boast multiple stout perimeter defenders.
Jaden McDaniels might be the best one in the entire NBA, in fact, as evident in his statistically evident ability to limit shot quality along the perimeter.
Largely thanks to him, Minnesota is the best team at limiting opposing three-pointers made. This is a crucial statistic against a Boston team that relies so heavily on making threes, as it easily ranks number one in three-point attempts per game.
Overall, Minnesota ranks first at limiting open three-point attempts and fifth at limiting wide-open three-point attempts. Minnesota also does the best job at limiting three-point attempts in general.
These stats indicate that, partly due to McDaniels, the Timberwolves are elite at running teams off the three-point line and at preventing them from finding favorable looks from deep.
Minnesota's Star Power
Now, Boston has a great player in Jayson Tatum.
When the Celtics beat the Nets in their rematch, they relied on Tatum being at his best. Boston proved too much for the Nets because the Nets don't have a player whose caliber approaches Tatum's.
I do think that the Timberwolves' defense will stifle Boston's three-point-oriented attack.
However, it boosts my confidence in Minnesota to know that, if Tatum does prove unstoppable — star players are, sometimes, simply unstoppable in a given game — Minnesota has the star
power to match Tatum, whereas Brookyln did not.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards excels at driving to the basket.
He struggled in last year's playoff against Dallas because the Mavericks excelled at that point in time at walling off the paint.
But Boston is currently vulnerable inside without the injured Porzingis.
The Celtics allow the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket, so a characteristic rim-attacker like Edwards has a great outlook today regardless of whether Tatum is great today or not.
Takeaway
Minnesota matches up well against a Boston team that struggles with strong three-point shooting groups who are solid at defending the perimeter and that struggles to protect the basket.
If Tatum turns out to be great today, then we'll have a pretty close game in which Minnesota will easily cover the spread.
If Tatum is not that great, then Minnesota will definitely win and will also cover the spread by an even bigger margin.
Edwards' rim-attacking, McDaniels with his perimeter defense, and Minnesota's group of efficient three-point shooters will be key factors in the Timberwolves' success today.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Brooklyn's Offense
On offense, the Nets primarily want to shoot three-pointers.
They boast several reliable shooters.
Cam Thomas, for example, is converting over 38 percent of his three-point attempts so far.
Cameron Johnson is shooting 42.3 percent from behind the arc.
Dennis Schroder is shooting over 40 percent from deep.
Overall, partly thanks to these three players, the Nets attempt the seventh-most threes and do a great job of converting those attempts.
Sacramento's Defense
Given its proclivity for shooting threes, the Nets are best built to beat a team with a weak perimeter defense.
Sacramento is that team. The Kings allow the second-most made three-pointers per game.
When their offense was unusually efficient two games ago, they still lost to the Hawks, who converted 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts.
Their poor perimeter defense makes it harder for them to win games.
While the Kings missed key players in that game, Atlanta's star player Trae Young also had an off night.
Sacramento's loss to Atlanta revealed the deficiencies of its role players, which help explain why they are losing so many close games this year.
Brooklyn's Outlook on Defense
Of course, Sacramento will have it even harder when its offense doesn't do well.
The Kings are hugely reliant on scoring from the mid-range, which creates a negative outlook for them because the Nets do a great job of limiting made baskets in the mid-range.
Sacramento makes the fourth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket but is also a very inefficient team from behind the arc.
Its inability to score in the mid-range will make it much too difficult for it to keep pace with the Nets.
Takeaway
Sacramento allows open three-point attempts with the highest frequency, which means that Brooklyn's collection of shooters will have a great outlook today.
The Kings will struggle on offense against a Brooklyn team that will take their mid-range shot-making away. The Kings lack the means to keep pace in this game.
Best Bet: Nets +8.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics
Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. at TD Garden
Boston's Defensive Vulnerabilities
Boston is heavily favored in this game despite the fact that multiple decisive matchup factors go against them.
For starters, the Celtics have played some of their worst games against teams that rank top-ten in both three-point attempts and top-ten at limiting opposing made three-pointers.
They struggle, in other words, against teams that prioritize both shooting threes and guarding the perimeter on defense.
To be specific, they lost by six at home to Golden State.
Moreover, the Nets took them to overtime.
They have also struggled against teams that prioritize getting to the rim, as evident in their shocking home loss to Atlanta.
Now, Boston has a well-regarded defense, but there are two things to note here.
One, teams that are particularly good at procuring three-point opportunities are able to do so against Boston.
Two, as good as Boston's defense is, it is not only vulnerable to good three-point shooters, but also its rim protection is vulnerable because key rim protector Kristaps Porzingis is still injured.
Minnesota's Three-Point Shooting
Minnesota is a team that excels at procuring favorable three-point attempts.
The Timberwolves attempt open three-pointers with the third-highest frequency.
They feature strong ball movement, with players moving well without the ball by, for example, coming off screens.
With multiple dangerous rim-attackers, they'll sometimes work inside-out.
They'll also work for open three-point attempts by operating in isolation and creating their own shot.
Partly because they get so many great looks, the Timberwolves rank sixth in three-point percentage, which is several spots higher than Boston.
Minnesota's Perimeter Defense
On the other side, the Timberwolves boast multiple stout perimeter defenders.
Jaden McDaniels might be the best one in the entire NBA, in fact, as evident in his statistically evident ability to limit shot quality along the perimeter.
Largely thanks to him, Minnesota is the best team at limiting opposing three-pointers made. This is a crucial statistic against a Boston team that relies so heavily on making threes, as it easily ranks number one in three-point attempts per game.
Overall, Minnesota ranks first at limiting open three-point attempts and fifth at limiting wide-open three-point attempts. Minnesota also does the best job at limiting three-point attempts in general.
These stats indicate that, partly due to McDaniels, the Timberwolves are elite at running teams off the three-point line and at preventing them from finding favorable looks from deep.
Minnesota's Star Power
Now, Boston has a great player in Jayson Tatum.
When the Celtics beat the Nets in their rematch, they relied on Tatum being at his best. Boston proved too much for the Nets because the Nets don't have a player whose caliber approaches Tatum's.
I do think that the Timberwolves' defense will stifle Boston's three-point-oriented attack.
However, it boosts my confidence in Minnesota to know that, if Tatum does prove unstoppable — star players are, sometimes, simply unstoppable in a given game — Minnesota has the star
power to match Tatum, whereas Brookyln did not.
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards excels at driving to the basket.
He struggled in last year's playoff against Dallas because the Mavericks excelled at that point in time at walling off the paint.
But Boston is currently vulnerable inside without the injured Porzingis.
The Celtics allow the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket, so a characteristic rim-attacker like Edwards has a great outlook today regardless of whether Tatum is great today or not.
Takeaway
Minnesota matches up well against a Boston team that struggles with strong three-point shooting groups who are solid at defending the perimeter and that struggles to protect the basket.
If Tatum turns out to be great today, then we'll have a pretty close game in which Minnesota will easily cover the spread.
If Tatum is not that great, then Minnesota will definitely win and will also cover the spread by an even bigger margin.
Edwards' rim-attacking, McDaniels with his perimeter defense, and Minnesota's group of efficient three-point shooters will be key factors in the Timberwolves' success today.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Brooklyn's Offense
On offense, the Nets primarily want to shoot three-pointers.
They boast several reliable shooters.
Cam Thomas, for example, is converting over 38 percent of his three-point attempts so far.
Cameron Johnson is shooting 42.3 percent from behind the arc.
Dennis Schroder is shooting over 40 percent from deep.
Overall, partly thanks to these three players, the Nets attempt the seventh-most threes and do a great job of converting those attempts.
Sacramento's Defense
Given its proclivity for shooting threes, the Nets are best built to beat a team with a weak perimeter defense.
Sacramento is that team. The Kings allow the second-most made three-pointers per game.
When their offense was unusually efficient two games ago, they still lost to the Hawks, who converted 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts.
Their poor perimeter defense makes it harder for them to win games.
While the Kings missed key players in that game, Atlanta's star player Trae Young also had an off night.
Sacramento's loss to Atlanta revealed the deficiencies of its role players, which help explain why they are losing so many close games this year.
Brooklyn's Outlook on Defense
Of course, Sacramento will have it even harder when its offense doesn't do well.
The Kings are hugely reliant on scoring from the mid-range, which creates a negative outlook for them because the Nets do a great job of limiting made baskets in the mid-range.
Sacramento makes the fourth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket but is also a very inefficient team from behind the arc.
Its inability to score in the mid-range will make it much too difficult for it to keep pace with the Nets.
Takeaway
Sacramento allows open three-point attempts with the highest frequency, which means that Brooklyn's collection of shooters will have a great outlook today.
The Kings will struggle on offense against a Brooklyn team that will take their mid-range shot-making away. The Kings lack the means to keep pace in this game.
Best Bet: Nets +8.5 at -105 with BetOnline
