NBA Best Bets for November 10: Abracadabra, the Magic Will Cover Today
Houston Rockets vs. Detroit Pistons
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Houston's Lack of Three-Point Shooting
Earlier this season, it was thought that Houston had improved its three-point shooting.
The Rockets struggled behind the arc last year and had, statistically speaking, improved their efficiency.
This improvement in efficiency proved not to be sustainable.
It was a consequence of hot shooting from high-volume shooter Jalen Green.
Green has, however, fallen back to Earth. In November, he is converting a mere 30 percent of his three-point attempts.
Overall, the Rockets currently rank 23rd in three-point efficiency, which is what they ranked last year.
Houston's Dependence on Scoring Inside
Because Houston struggles to score from outside the arc, it is rather dependent on scoring inside the arc.
If the Rockets are going to score enough points to cover the spread as the favored team today, they are going to have to do really well around the basket.
This is the space where they primarily want to score: currently, they attempt the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Center Alperen Sengun accounts for the largest part of their attempts around the basket, although he is characteristically inefficient in part due to his relative lack of athleticism.
Detroit's Rim Protection
Houston's determination to score at the basket, spearheaded as it is by inefficient scorers like Sengun, will cause it to struggle against Detroit.
Detroit is loaded with strong rim-protecting centers, so it does not matter if starter Jalen Duren is hurt — he is currently a game-time decision with his ankle injury, and Houston will anyhow miss a center of its own in elite offensive rebounder Steven Adams.
If Duren can't go, Isaiah Stewart will get more minutes in his place. Stewart's current 106.2 defensive rating attests to his quality as a defender.
Stewart is a strong shot-blocker who, as video footage shows, defends very well in space.
Overall, Detroit does the eighth-best job of limiting field goals made around the basket, as it has hard-working defenders like Stewart who know how to position themselves well and who, partly for this reason, do a strong job of limiting opposing efficiency around the basket.
Guards, Guards, and More Guards
Offensively, Detroit is guard-centered.
Guards Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are easily the team's two leading scorers.
They lead the Pistons with 22.8 and 19.6 points, respectively.
Houston matches up poorly against the Pistons' offense because it struggles against guards.
This struggle was evident when it lost to Charlotte in large part due to LaMelo Ball's 34-point output.
Most recently, the Rockets were blown out by Oklahoma City, whose point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his most efficient shooting performance of the season against them.
Detroit's offense will thrive because its best players will be very comfortable.
Takeaway
Houston's offense will struggle because it won't shoot threes well and it will fail to be efficient around the basket.
Meanwhile, Detroit will ride Cunningham and Ivey to victory.
Best Bet: Pistons +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Location Matters
Apart from its season-opener, Orlando has been an awful road team.
At home, however, the Magic are 3-0.
Indiana, a potent playoff team last year, played them close.
In their other two home games, they beat Brooklyn by 15 and New Orleans by 27.
When it plays at home, Orlando can display its matchup advantages.
Washington's Poor Defense
The Magic offense will exhibit a strong edge against what is a terrible Washington defense.
During their ongoing three-game losing streak, the Wizards have given up 118 points to Miami, 125 points to Golden State, and 128 points to Memphis.
Because their offense lacks the firepower to keep pace, they lost all three of those games by double digits.
Washington's Awful Rim Protection
One specific aspect of Washington's low-quality defense that will be particularly relevant tonight is its weak rim protection.
The defense is filled with youngsters who are struggling to grow up.
Veterans on the team include center Jonas Valanciunas whose characteristic immobility limits his defensive capabilities in front of the rim.
Overall, the Wizards allow the eighth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Orlando's Offense
The Magic want to score inside with guys like Franz Wagner, a strong inside scorer who uses his aggressiveness to get to the basket.
Largely thanks to him, Orlando has one of the better offenses around the basket.
Schematically, Washington's defense wants to keep guys out of the paint, so it will be helpful for Orlando to perform well from behind the arc, although the Wizards don't do a particularly good job of protecting the paint.
Playing in Orlando will be valuable for the Magic because they shoot much better behind the arc in home games than they do in road games.
Look out, among others, for Jalen Suggs, who is shooting 40.9 percent from deep in home games.
Washington Won't Keep Pace
It is impossible to like the Wizards when they face a team that will score a lot of points and that plays great defense.
They've lost by 13 or more points to all three teams that they've played that rank top-ten in defensive rating.
Orlando ranks third in the category.
The Magic's defense matches up especially well against Washington because the Wizards love to shoot threes.
Their reliance on shooting threes will hurt them against a defense that ranks seventh at limiting opposing made three-pointers because it excels at preventing teams from procuring favorable looks from behind the arc.
While the Wizards are balanced on offense in that they also love to try to score at the basket, the Magic collaborate to be one of the best teams at limiting field goal efficiency in this space.
Orlando has a great team defense, which will prolong the woes of a Washington offense that has only looked good against a terrible Atlanta group.
Takeaway
Orlando won't need to score many points to cover the spread, but it has guys who can get to and finish at the rim and it has guys who can shoot.
At home, this offense will be at its best, as will its defense.
Washington regularly struggles against stiff defenses. Orlando's top-caliber team defense will keep the Wizards from being effective inside or outside the arc.
Best Bet: Magic -9 at -115 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Detroit Pistons
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 3 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Houston's Lack of Three-Point Shooting
Earlier this season, it was thought that Houston had improved its three-point shooting.
The Rockets struggled behind the arc last year and had, statistically speaking, improved their efficiency.
This improvement in efficiency proved not to be sustainable.
It was a consequence of hot shooting from high-volume shooter Jalen Green.
Green has, however, fallen back to Earth. In November, he is converting a mere 30 percent of his three-point attempts.
Overall, the Rockets currently rank 23rd in three-point efficiency, which is what they ranked last year.
Houston's Dependence on Scoring Inside
Because Houston struggles to score from outside the arc, it is rather dependent on scoring inside the arc.
If the Rockets are going to score enough points to cover the spread as the favored team today, they are going to have to do really well around the basket.
This is the space where they primarily want to score: currently, they attempt the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Center Alperen Sengun accounts for the largest part of their attempts around the basket, although he is characteristically inefficient in part due to his relative lack of athleticism.
Detroit's Rim Protection
Houston's determination to score at the basket, spearheaded as it is by inefficient scorers like Sengun, will cause it to struggle against Detroit.
Detroit is loaded with strong rim-protecting centers, so it does not matter if starter Jalen Duren is hurt — he is currently a game-time decision with his ankle injury, and Houston will anyhow miss a center of its own in elite offensive rebounder Steven Adams.
If Duren can't go, Isaiah Stewart will get more minutes in his place. Stewart's current 106.2 defensive rating attests to his quality as a defender.
Stewart is a strong shot-blocker who, as video footage shows, defends very well in space.
Overall, Detroit does the eighth-best job of limiting field goals made around the basket, as it has hard-working defenders like Stewart who know how to position themselves well and who, partly for this reason, do a strong job of limiting opposing efficiency around the basket.
Guards, Guards, and More Guards
Offensively, Detroit is guard-centered.
Guards Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are easily the team's two leading scorers.
They lead the Pistons with 22.8 and 19.6 points, respectively.
Houston matches up poorly against the Pistons' offense because it struggles against guards.
This struggle was evident when it lost to Charlotte in large part due to LaMelo Ball's 34-point output.
Most recently, the Rockets were blown out by Oklahoma City, whose point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his most efficient shooting performance of the season against them.
Detroit's offense will thrive because its best players will be very comfortable.
Takeaway
Houston's offense will struggle because it won't shoot threes well and it will fail to be efficient around the basket.
Meanwhile, Detroit will ride Cunningham and Ivey to victory.
Best Bet: Pistons +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Location Matters
Apart from its season-opener, Orlando has been an awful road team.
At home, however, the Magic are 3-0.
Indiana, a potent playoff team last year, played them close.
In their other two home games, they beat Brooklyn by 15 and New Orleans by 27.
When it plays at home, Orlando can display its matchup advantages.
Washington's Poor Defense
The Magic offense will exhibit a strong edge against what is a terrible Washington defense.
During their ongoing three-game losing streak, the Wizards have given up 118 points to Miami, 125 points to Golden State, and 128 points to Memphis.
Because their offense lacks the firepower to keep pace, they lost all three of those games by double digits.
Washington's Awful Rim Protection
One specific aspect of Washington's low-quality defense that will be particularly relevant tonight is its weak rim protection.
The defense is filled with youngsters who are struggling to grow up.
Veterans on the team include center Jonas Valanciunas whose characteristic immobility limits his defensive capabilities in front of the rim.
Overall, the Wizards allow the eighth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Orlando's Offense
The Magic want to score inside with guys like Franz Wagner, a strong inside scorer who uses his aggressiveness to get to the basket.
Largely thanks to him, Orlando has one of the better offenses around the basket.
Schematically, Washington's defense wants to keep guys out of the paint, so it will be helpful for Orlando to perform well from behind the arc, although the Wizards don't do a particularly good job of protecting the paint.
Playing in Orlando will be valuable for the Magic because they shoot much better behind the arc in home games than they do in road games.
Look out, among others, for Jalen Suggs, who is shooting 40.9 percent from deep in home games.
Washington Won't Keep Pace
It is impossible to like the Wizards when they face a team that will score a lot of points and that plays great defense.
They've lost by 13 or more points to all three teams that they've played that rank top-ten in defensive rating.
Orlando ranks third in the category.
The Magic's defense matches up especially well against Washington because the Wizards love to shoot threes.
Their reliance on shooting threes will hurt them against a defense that ranks seventh at limiting opposing made three-pointers because it excels at preventing teams from procuring favorable looks from behind the arc.
While the Wizards are balanced on offense in that they also love to try to score at the basket, the Magic collaborate to be one of the best teams at limiting field goal efficiency in this space.
Orlando has a great team defense, which will prolong the woes of a Washington offense that has only looked good against a terrible Atlanta group.
Takeaway
Orlando won't need to score many points to cover the spread, but it has guys who can get to and finish at the rim and it has guys who can shoot.
At home, this offense will be at its best, as will its defense.
Washington regularly struggles against stiff defenses. Orlando's top-caliber team defense will keep the Wizards from being effective inside or outside the arc.
Best Bet: Magic -9 at -115 with BetOnline
