NBA Best Bets for October 27: Brooklyn Is A Dangerous Dog Today
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Philadelphia's Three-Point Shooting Decline
Last year, the 76ers ranked a mediocre 16th in three-point percentage.
This year, they are primed to decline in this category.
To understand why, consider who they had then and who they no longer have.
Buddy Hield, for example, was a 76er with his 38.9-percent three-point conversion rate.
Cameron Payne, who shot 38.2-percent from deep, and Nicolas Batum, who converted 39.9-percent of his three-point attempts, were likewise 76ers.
These guys now play for other teams, and Philadelphia's offense is the worse off for it.
What Philadelphia's Offense Relies On
Primarily, the 76ers want to score at the basket.
They are attempting the eighth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
While they continue to miss injured superstar center Joel Embiid, they also lack effective three-point shooters and generally lack alternatives.
A team that protects the rim well is built to shut down Philadelphia's offense.
Indiana's Rim Protection
The Pacers are fortunate to have rim-protecting center Myles Turner.
Turner is an excellent shot-blocker whose shot-blocking numbers have made him, in the eyes of many NBA fans, a snub from the All-NBA Defensive teams in previous years. He is Indiana's career leader in blocks.
With the likes of Turner, Indiana is holding offenses to well below 60-percent shooting within five feet of the basket.
Indiana's Offensive Preference
On offense, the Pacers primarily want to attack the basket.
Guys like Turner, Pascal Siakam, and Bennedict Mathurin thrive at the basket.
Overall, the Pacers make the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their outlook is excellent against a Philadelphia defense that misses its key rim protector Embiid, who annually belongs in Defensive Player of the Year conversations.
The 76ers do a poor job of limiting opposing field goals within five feet of the basket and are therefore primed to be exploited by Indiana's rim-attacking offense.
Takeaway
The 76ers look awful so far: after losing by 15 at home to Milwaukee they lost by eight in Toronto. Their injuries — Paul George continues to be absent, as well — are hurting them because they are seriously lacking talent.
While it's true that the Pacers looked awful in their last game, that was the product of an awful three-point shooting night, which is something that they regularly bounce back from, as apparent in the first two games of their series against Milwaukee last postseason.
But the Pacers will primarily want to attack inside, where they'll take advantage of Philadelphia's emaciated rim protection.
Conversely, the 76ers want to focus on attacking the basket but encounter the likes of Myles Turner, the centerpiece of Indiana's stout interior defense.
Best Bet: Pacers -7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
A Three-Point Shooting Contest
Both Milwaukee and Brooklyn love to shoot threes.
Last year, the Bucks and Nets ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in three-pointers attempted per game.
This season, both teams continue to rank top-10 in the category.
Brooklyn's Superior Perimeter Defense
Brooklyn is going to win this game because it will make Milwaukee uncomfortable trying to do what it wants to do on offense, which is shoot threes.
The Nets are the seventh-best team at limiting open three-point attempts whereas Milwaukee is the eighth-worst.
Likewise, the Nets are better than the Bucks at limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
Brooklyn matches up well against the Bucks because of its high-quality collection of 3-and-D guys, which are guys who are efficient three-point shooters and effective defenders. Take note, in particular, of Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith.
Milwaukee has one in Khris Middleton, but he is out with an ankle injury. The Bucks miss departed guard Jrue Holiday, who was a great defender for them.
For the Nets, the respective defensive ratings of Johnson and Finney-Smith attest to quality of their defense.
The same is true for center Nic Claxton, who is notoriously versatile — with his ability to guard all positions — but also ably retreats in drop coverage to guard the rim. His shot-blocking will help limit Milwaukee's Giannis inside.
Brooklyn's Shooters
For the Nets, Cam Thomas and Dennis Schröder are both shooting 50 percent or better from deep.
Finney-Smith's three-point percentage currently lies at 38.5.
Brookyln has the three-point shooters to explode against Milwaukee's vulnerable defense.
Part of what makes Schroder and especially Thomas difficult to defend from deep is that defenders have to respect their ability to score at the basket.
Their versatility as scorers perplexes defenders who are not sure whether to play them close when they are behind the arc or to drop back to try to protect the basket.
With Claxton, also, who converted over 70 percent of his field goals within five feet of the basket last year, Brooklyn possesses the weapons inside to complement its three-point shooting attack.
Takeaway
With its scoring weapons inside and especially outside the arc, Brooklyn is well-built to replicate Chicago's 133-point output against the Bucks, which is something that injured Philadelphia could not achieve against them in their season-opener.
The Nets have a strong perimeter defense to complement Claxton's rim protection, which will combine to take away what Milwaukee wants to do offensively.
Best Bet: Nets +9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Philadelphia's Three-Point Shooting Decline
Last year, the 76ers ranked a mediocre 16th in three-point percentage.
This year, they are primed to decline in this category.
To understand why, consider who they had then and who they no longer have.
Buddy Hield, for example, was a 76er with his 38.9-percent three-point conversion rate.
Cameron Payne, who shot 38.2-percent from deep, and Nicolas Batum, who converted 39.9-percent of his three-point attempts, were likewise 76ers.
These guys now play for other teams, and Philadelphia's offense is the worse off for it.
What Philadelphia's Offense Relies On
Primarily, the 76ers want to score at the basket.
They are attempting the eighth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
While they continue to miss injured superstar center Joel Embiid, they also lack effective three-point shooters and generally lack alternatives.
A team that protects the rim well is built to shut down Philadelphia's offense.
Indiana's Rim Protection
The Pacers are fortunate to have rim-protecting center Myles Turner.
Turner is an excellent shot-blocker whose shot-blocking numbers have made him, in the eyes of many NBA fans, a snub from the All-NBA Defensive teams in previous years. He is Indiana's career leader in blocks.
With the likes of Turner, Indiana is holding offenses to well below 60-percent shooting within five feet of the basket.
Indiana's Offensive Preference
On offense, the Pacers primarily want to attack the basket.
Guys like Turner, Pascal Siakam, and Bennedict Mathurin thrive at the basket.
Overall, the Pacers make the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Their outlook is excellent against a Philadelphia defense that misses its key rim protector Embiid, who annually belongs in Defensive Player of the Year conversations.
The 76ers do a poor job of limiting opposing field goals within five feet of the basket and are therefore primed to be exploited by Indiana's rim-attacking offense.
Takeaway
The 76ers look awful so far: after losing by 15 at home to Milwaukee they lost by eight in Toronto. Their injuries — Paul George continues to be absent, as well — are hurting them because they are seriously lacking talent.
While it's true that the Pacers looked awful in their last game, that was the product of an awful three-point shooting night, which is something that they regularly bounce back from, as apparent in the first two games of their series against Milwaukee last postseason.
But the Pacers will primarily want to attack inside, where they'll take advantage of Philadelphia's emaciated rim protection.
Conversely, the 76ers want to focus on attacking the basket but encounter the likes of Myles Turner, the centerpiece of Indiana's stout interior defense.
Best Bet: Pacers -7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
A Three-Point Shooting Contest
Both Milwaukee and Brooklyn love to shoot threes.
Last year, the Bucks and Nets ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in three-pointers attempted per game.
This season, both teams continue to rank top-10 in the category.
Brooklyn's Superior Perimeter Defense
Brooklyn is going to win this game because it will make Milwaukee uncomfortable trying to do what it wants to do on offense, which is shoot threes.
The Nets are the seventh-best team at limiting open three-point attempts whereas Milwaukee is the eighth-worst.
Likewise, the Nets are better than the Bucks at limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
Brooklyn matches up well against the Bucks because of its high-quality collection of 3-and-D guys, which are guys who are efficient three-point shooters and effective defenders. Take note, in particular, of Cameron Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith.
Milwaukee has one in Khris Middleton, but he is out with an ankle injury. The Bucks miss departed guard Jrue Holiday, who was a great defender for them.
For the Nets, the respective defensive ratings of Johnson and Finney-Smith attest to quality of their defense.
The same is true for center Nic Claxton, who is notoriously versatile — with his ability to guard all positions — but also ably retreats in drop coverage to guard the rim. His shot-blocking will help limit Milwaukee's Giannis inside.
Brooklyn's Shooters
For the Nets, Cam Thomas and Dennis Schröder are both shooting 50 percent or better from deep.
Finney-Smith's three-point percentage currently lies at 38.5.
Brookyln has the three-point shooters to explode against Milwaukee's vulnerable defense.
Part of what makes Schroder and especially Thomas difficult to defend from deep is that defenders have to respect their ability to score at the basket.
Their versatility as scorers perplexes defenders who are not sure whether to play them close when they are behind the arc or to drop back to try to protect the basket.
With Claxton, also, who converted over 70 percent of his field goals within five feet of the basket last year, Brooklyn possesses the weapons inside to complement its three-point shooting attack.
Takeaway
With its scoring weapons inside and especially outside the arc, Brooklyn is well-built to replicate Chicago's 133-point output against the Bucks, which is something that injured Philadelphia could not achieve against them in their season-opener.
The Nets have a strong perimeter defense to complement Claxton's rim protection, which will combine to take away what Milwaukee wants to do offensively.
Best Bet: Nets +9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
