NBA Odds & Picks April 14
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Great Spot for Indiana
The Pacers are in a great spot today because they are coming off a loss.
They have won seven times in a row when they were playing directly after a loss.
In each of those seven games, they won by 14 or more points.
While one of those seven victims was lowly Detroit, they also victimized the Thunder and the Mavericks and Clippers on the road.
Atlanta's Awful Rim Protection
I like Indiana because, even regardless of the good spot they're in, they match up well against Atlanta.
This is partly because of the Hawks' awful rim protection.
The Hawks struggle to make shots at the rim difficult for opponents because they lack players who can contest them effectively and they lack defenders who can guard ball-handlers driving inside.
Consequently, they allow the third-most field goals and the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Largely due to these defensive deficiencies, the Pacers scored 150 points or more in two of their three games against Atlanta this season.
126 was their point total in the other game.
Indiana's Offense
Indiana wants to feast at the rim with the scoring of center Myles Turner, the driving prowess of Tyrese Haliburton, and others.
The Pacers gladly attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
While they can also shoot well from deep, they'll be comfortable attacking the basket today even if Atlanta again tries to resort to more of a drop coverage scheme.
Atlanta's Offense
The Hawks also match up poorly against the Pacers because they rely heavily on attempting three-pointers.
They lack players who are comfortable scoring at the basket where they are one of the NBA's most inefficient teams.
Instead, they attempt the seventh most threes per game.
Indiana's Defense
Indiana will make Atlanta uncomfortable on offense by forcing the Hawks to try to score against its array of shot-blockers.
The Pacers care more than any other team about guarding the three-point line.
No team allows fewer three-point attempts per game than the Pacers.
Similarly, Indiana allows the second-fewest open three-point attempts and the fewest wide-open ones.
These stats show that Indiana is the best team at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point attempts.
Best Bet: Pacers -14 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Composure
Down the stretch, this young Orlando team has struggled to an extent to exhibit its usual composure.
These struggles have been apparent strictly on the road.
At home, however, they've been locked-in defensively.
In their home games since March 27, they allowed 101 points to Golden State, 100 to the Clippers, 88 to Memphis, 103 to Portland, and 98 to Chicago.
That is consistent success.
When they last hosted Milwaukee, they allowed 97 points.
In that game, on November 11, Giannis scored 35 points and Damian Lillard did not play.
Giannis will sit out today; Lillard is listed as "probable" with soreness in his left adductor.
The key takeaway is that Orlando's defense is reliable at home, no less against a Milwaukee offense that it can evidently lock down.
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic can limit Milwaukee's offense because they match up well against it.
Milwaukee primarily wants to shoot threes – the Bucks attempt the fifth-most threes per game.
Orlando's perimeter defense is strong because of its schematic variety that befuddles opposing offenses, its length, its pressure, and its activity.
The Magic rank third in limiting three-point attempts overall and third in limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
These stats indicate their ability to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point attempts.
With Giannis absent, the Magic will have an even easier time guarding opposing three-point shooters because they won't have to worry about the unique threat that he poses in the paint.
Orlando's One-Dimensional Offense
Orlando is allergic to attempting threes.
The Magic lack efficient shooters and therefore rank toward the bottom in both three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage.
Jalen Suggs is efficient for them but he's only good for two or three threes per game.
Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony are all examples of their highest-volume three-point shooters – not that they attempt many – who convert fewer than 34-percent of their three-pointers.
Instead of attempt threes, the Magic want to score inside. They attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Milwaukee's Defense
The Bucks are still comfortable employing the drop coverage that they've long been associated with.
The main thing is that, led by Brook Lopez at center, they have the personnel to protect the rim.
Milwaukee matches up well against the Magic because it allows the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Under 214.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Phoenix In The Mid-Range
Whie Minnesota is well-known for its strong rim protection, protecting the rim and protecting the mid-range are two completely different things.
Video footage shows the ability of opposing scorers to exploit Minnesota's defense by drawing Timberwolves defenders to the basket for example by driving inside.
It is too easy, againt Minnesota, to pull up or to execute some other move in order to free up space for a favorable shot attempt away from the basket.
The Suns attempt the most shots in the 10-19-foot range, which is a space in which Minnesota's defenders are uncomfortable, as evident in the high number of field goals that they allow here.
Phoenix's Improving Defense
The Suns' defense makes them a great underdog, especially today against a Minnesota offense that will struggle to score even against Atlanta's defense.
In April, the Suns own the third-best defensive rating.
They are holding teams to about ten points fewer than their scoring average, although they held Minnesota to 87 points on April 5.
This defensive success enabled them to make up for an unusual offensive disappointment and to go two-for-two in defeating the Timberwolves by double digits this season.
Anthony Edwards' illness won't help the Timberwolves against Phoenix's in-form defense – he was their leading scorer on April 5.
Best Bet: Suns ML at +110 with Bovada
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Great Spot for Indiana
The Pacers are in a great spot today because they are coming off a loss.
They have won seven times in a row when they were playing directly after a loss.
In each of those seven games, they won by 14 or more points.
While one of those seven victims was lowly Detroit, they also victimized the Thunder and the Mavericks and Clippers on the road.
Atlanta's Awful Rim Protection
I like Indiana because, even regardless of the good spot they're in, they match up well against Atlanta.
This is partly because of the Hawks' awful rim protection.
The Hawks struggle to make shots at the rim difficult for opponents because they lack players who can contest them effectively and they lack defenders who can guard ball-handlers driving inside.
Consequently, they allow the third-most field goals and the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Largely due to these defensive deficiencies, the Pacers scored 150 points or more in two of their three games against Atlanta this season.
126 was their point total in the other game.
Indiana's Offense
Indiana wants to feast at the rim with the scoring of center Myles Turner, the driving prowess of Tyrese Haliburton, and others.
The Pacers gladly attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
While they can also shoot well from deep, they'll be comfortable attacking the basket today even if Atlanta again tries to resort to more of a drop coverage scheme.
Atlanta's Offense
The Hawks also match up poorly against the Pacers because they rely heavily on attempting three-pointers.
They lack players who are comfortable scoring at the basket where they are one of the NBA's most inefficient teams.
Instead, they attempt the seventh most threes per game.
Indiana's Defense
Indiana will make Atlanta uncomfortable on offense by forcing the Hawks to try to score against its array of shot-blockers.
The Pacers care more than any other team about guarding the three-point line.
No team allows fewer three-point attempts per game than the Pacers.
Similarly, Indiana allows the second-fewest open three-point attempts and the fewest wide-open ones.
These stats show that Indiana is the best team at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point attempts.
Best Bet: Pacers -14 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Composure
Down the stretch, this young Orlando team has struggled to an extent to exhibit its usual composure.
These struggles have been apparent strictly on the road.
At home, however, they've been locked-in defensively.
In their home games since March 27, they allowed 101 points to Golden State, 100 to the Clippers, 88 to Memphis, 103 to Portland, and 98 to Chicago.
That is consistent success.
When they last hosted Milwaukee, they allowed 97 points.
In that game, on November 11, Giannis scored 35 points and Damian Lillard did not play.
Giannis will sit out today; Lillard is listed as "probable" with soreness in his left adductor.
The key takeaway is that Orlando's defense is reliable at home, no less against a Milwaukee offense that it can evidently lock down.
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic can limit Milwaukee's offense because they match up well against it.
Milwaukee primarily wants to shoot threes – the Bucks attempt the fifth-most threes per game.
Orlando's perimeter defense is strong because of its schematic variety that befuddles opposing offenses, its length, its pressure, and its activity.
The Magic rank third in limiting three-point attempts overall and third in limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
These stats indicate their ability to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point attempts.
With Giannis absent, the Magic will have an even easier time guarding opposing three-point shooters because they won't have to worry about the unique threat that he poses in the paint.
Orlando's One-Dimensional Offense
Orlando is allergic to attempting threes.
The Magic lack efficient shooters and therefore rank toward the bottom in both three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage.
Jalen Suggs is efficient for them but he's only good for two or three threes per game.
Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony are all examples of their highest-volume three-point shooters – not that they attempt many – who convert fewer than 34-percent of their three-pointers.
Instead of attempt threes, the Magic want to score inside. They attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Milwaukee's Defense
The Bucks are still comfortable employing the drop coverage that they've long been associated with.
The main thing is that, led by Brook Lopez at center, they have the personnel to protect the rim.
Milwaukee matches up well against the Magic because it allows the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Best Bet: Under 214.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Phoenix In The Mid-Range
Whie Minnesota is well-known for its strong rim protection, protecting the rim and protecting the mid-range are two completely different things.
Video footage shows the ability of opposing scorers to exploit Minnesota's defense by drawing Timberwolves defenders to the basket for example by driving inside.
It is too easy, againt Minnesota, to pull up or to execute some other move in order to free up space for a favorable shot attempt away from the basket.
The Suns attempt the most shots in the 10-19-foot range, which is a space in which Minnesota's defenders are uncomfortable, as evident in the high number of field goals that they allow here.
Phoenix's Improving Defense
The Suns' defense makes them a great underdog, especially today against a Minnesota offense that will struggle to score even against Atlanta's defense.
In April, the Suns own the third-best defensive rating.
They are holding teams to about ten points fewer than their scoring average, although they held Minnesota to 87 points on April 5.
This defensive success enabled them to make up for an unusual offensive disappointment and to go two-for-two in defeating the Timberwolves by double digits this season.
Anthony Edwards' illness won't help the Timberwolves against Phoenix's in-form defense – he was their leading scorer on April 5.
Best Bet: Suns ML at +110 with Bovada
