MLB Best Bets for April 7
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Philadelphia's Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today.
Philadelphia's starter showed the quality of his pitches last week when he struck out eight Reds batters in five innings last week.
While allowing two runs in five innings isn't amazing, he was the unfortunate victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Sanchez's 0.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how strongly he actually performed.
The velocity of his pitches has risen relative to last year.
His pitches also show unique and powerful movement. He's, moreover, locating them well along the edges of the strike zone.
Sanchez vs. Nationals
Last year, Sanchez thrived against the Nationals. He allowed a 2.25 ERA in two starts against them.
This year, the Nats will suffer against a stronger version of Sanchez.
They match up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .226 slugging rate against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, changeup, and slider, from lefties.
Washington's Starter
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals today.
Gore is primed to improve this week. He did a great job of inducing soft contact in his previous start but was unfortunate to allow a high ERA.
His 3.20 FIP shows how well he in reality performed.
Despite certain misleading statistics, Philadelphia is a good opponent for him to face.
His overall stats against the Phillies are bad because he's struggled in Philadelphia.
But he's been good against the Phillies outside of their home venue.
Key Factors
Gore will benefit from the fact that this is a day game.
His career win percentage skyrockets in day games. Accordingly, his career daytime ERA is 1.27 lower than his career nighttime ERA.
As for the Phillies, they are hitting much worse during the day than at night.
Their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .81 lower in day games so far.
Moreover, they match up poorly against Gore, slugging .359 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at +100 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Sean Manaea
The Mets start Sean Manaea today.
Manaea will look to build off his previous start which he started by sitting down twelve consecutive Detroit batters. He struck out eight in six shutout innings.
Detroit mustered one hit.
Manaea's Pitches
Manaea relies primarily on his fastball, which, like his sweeper, he does a good job of distributing throughout different parts of the strike zone.
Heat maps show his propensity for elevating his cutter and burying his changeup.
His ability to locate his pitches well makes him hard to hit.
Batters especially struggle to deal with the borderline location of his pitches because their movement toys with their perception of whether they will land for a ball or a strike.
Especially his fastball has tremendous horizontal movement.
Manaea vs. Reds
Manaea is in a great spot today because he is a daytime pitcher.
His career winning percentage skyrockets in day games.
Correspondingly, his career daytime ERA is .60 lower than his career nighttime ERA.
Cincinnati is also struggling to hit his pitches.
The Reds rank 24th with a .275 slugging rate against his four pitches from lefties.
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati.
Abbott will look to replicate the strong start that he enjoyed to his 2023.
His 2.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his previous start, which took place in Philadelphia, shows a lot of promise for his form.
Abbott vs. Mets
Abbott throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, and changeup.
His outlook is strong today against a Mets lineup that ranks 24th with a .267 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -105 with Bovada
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Cleveland's Starter
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland's starter today, floundered in his last start.
I'm not interested in the mere fact that he gave up a lot of runs, because a pitcher's outcome changes from start to start for different reasons.
My worry is that McKenzie struggled for reasons that suggest a longer-term issue.
He is coming back from an injury-filled season that afflicted his shoulder and elbow.
His last start suggests that he is not ready.
The fastball is his second-favorite pitch out of the three pitches that he throws, yet its velocity was lower than it's ever been. It yielded a .600 BA and 1.200 slugging rate.
Moreover, the movement of his curveball lacks its usual effectiveness.
Given these issues, he is worth fading in general until he shows that he has regained his form.
Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Unlike McKenzie, there is no reason to expect Ober to continue to struggle.
He's throwing his pitches fine, but he simply struggled against a Royals lineup that also hit him hard in their last meeting in 2023.
Ober loves facing Cleveland, though. He owns a 1.29 ERA in five career starts against the Guardians.
Best Bet: Twins First-Half ML at -130 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Nationals Park
Philadelphia's Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today.
Philadelphia's starter showed the quality of his pitches last week when he struck out eight Reds batters in five innings last week.
While allowing two runs in five innings isn't amazing, he was the unfortunate victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Sanchez's 0.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how strongly he actually performed.
The velocity of his pitches has risen relative to last year.
His pitches also show unique and powerful movement. He's, moreover, locating them well along the edges of the strike zone.
Sanchez vs. Nationals
Last year, Sanchez thrived against the Nationals. He allowed a 2.25 ERA in two starts against them.
This year, the Nats will suffer against a stronger version of Sanchez.
They match up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .226 slugging rate against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, changeup, and slider, from lefties.
Washington's Starter
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals today.
Gore is primed to improve this week. He did a great job of inducing soft contact in his previous start but was unfortunate to allow a high ERA.
His 3.20 FIP shows how well he in reality performed.
Despite certain misleading statistics, Philadelphia is a good opponent for him to face.
His overall stats against the Phillies are bad because he's struggled in Philadelphia.
But he's been good against the Phillies outside of their home venue.
Key Factors
Gore will benefit from the fact that this is a day game.
His career win percentage skyrockets in day games. Accordingly, his career daytime ERA is 1.27 lower than his career nighttime ERA.
As for the Phillies, they are hitting much worse during the day than at night.
Their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .81 lower in day games so far.
Moreover, they match up poorly against Gore, slugging .359 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 at +100 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Sean Manaea
The Mets start Sean Manaea today.
Manaea will look to build off his previous start which he started by sitting down twelve consecutive Detroit batters. He struck out eight in six shutout innings.
Detroit mustered one hit.
Manaea's Pitches
Manaea relies primarily on his fastball, which, like his sweeper, he does a good job of distributing throughout different parts of the strike zone.
Heat maps show his propensity for elevating his cutter and burying his changeup.
His ability to locate his pitches well makes him hard to hit.
Batters especially struggle to deal with the borderline location of his pitches because their movement toys with their perception of whether they will land for a ball or a strike.
Especially his fastball has tremendous horizontal movement.
Manaea vs. Reds
Manaea is in a great spot today because he is a daytime pitcher.
His career winning percentage skyrockets in day games.
Correspondingly, his career daytime ERA is .60 lower than his career nighttime ERA.
Cincinnati is also struggling to hit his pitches.
The Reds rank 24th with a .275 slugging rate against his four pitches from lefties.
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati.
Abbott will look to replicate the strong start that he enjoyed to his 2023.
His 2.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his previous start, which took place in Philadelphia, shows a lot of promise for his form.
Abbott vs. Mets
Abbott throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, and changeup.
His outlook is strong today against a Mets lineup that ranks 24th with a .267 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -105 with Bovada
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Cleveland's Starter
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland's starter today, floundered in his last start.
I'm not interested in the mere fact that he gave up a lot of runs, because a pitcher's outcome changes from start to start for different reasons.
My worry is that McKenzie struggled for reasons that suggest a longer-term issue.
He is coming back from an injury-filled season that afflicted his shoulder and elbow.
His last start suggests that he is not ready.
The fastball is his second-favorite pitch out of the three pitches that he throws, yet its velocity was lower than it's ever been. It yielded a .600 BA and 1.200 slugging rate.
Moreover, the movement of his curveball lacks its usual effectiveness.
Given these issues, he is worth fading in general until he shows that he has regained his form.
Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins today.
Unlike McKenzie, there is no reason to expect Ober to continue to struggle.
He's throwing his pitches fine, but he simply struggled against a Royals lineup that also hit him hard in their last meeting in 2023.
Ober loves facing Cleveland, though. He owns a 1.29 ERA in five career starts against the Guardians.
Best Bet: Twins First-Half ML at -130 with BetOnline
