MLB Best Bets for March 31: Diamondbacks Are Ready to Bounce Back
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
L.A.'s Starter
Reid Detmers starts for the Angels today.
Detmers is in good shape, as evident in his 2.45 Spring Training ERA, which appears all the stronger if you consider how much rust he had to shake off.
While his first Spring Training start was a struggle, he allowed three earned runs in his last four Spring Training starts, totaling 16.2 innings.
Matchup History
Detmers owns the strong form that he needs to prolong his historical success against the Orioles.
He owns a 1.53 ERA in three career starts against them.
Of the 50 at-bats that active O's hitters have accumulated against him, only two resulted in extra-base hits – both doubles.
No active Oriole has more than two hits against him.
Among other, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins are combined 0-for-11 when facing Detmers.
Baltimore's Starter
Tyler Wells starts for the Orioles tonight.
In his last season, he performed a lot worse than his surface-level stats show.
His ERA looked good, but his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 4.98.
It's his good ERA last season that is contributing to the fact that Baltimore is so heavily favored today.
Wells vs. Angels
I dislike Wells today because he is building a history of poor starts against the Angels.
Last year, he allowed three runs in five innings against them.
Two years ago, he allowed three runs in four innings against them.
L.A. has had nothing but success against Wells in his starter role.
Mike Trout, for example, is 3-for-5 with two home runs against him.
First Five
This is a bet for the first five innings only.
The Angels' pitching was brutal in innings six, seven, eight, and nine last year, and this seems to be the case again this year.
So that we can take advantage of Detmers' edge today, we will stick to a first-half bet.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +135 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Cleveland's Starter
Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland, and he is starting again.
Carrasco owns a nice mix of pitches in his arsenal: his main ones in descending order of usage are the fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and curveball.
Heat maps show his ability, as he demonstrated it last year, to distribute his fastball throughout different parts of the strike zone. His command of this pitch makes it an effective option with which to set up his best stuff.
In particular, his changeup is tough to hit. It is a relatively hard one, and he does a great job of burying it in the lowest corners of the strike zone.
Carrasco's Outlook Today
Today, Carrasco is going to enjoy being a Guardian again.
His outlook is strong against an Oakland lineup that, having seen his pitches 130 times thrown by righties so far this season, bats .192 against them.
Oakland's Starter
Paul Blackburn starts for Oakland today.
In descending order of frequency. Blackburn throws a sinker, cutter, slider, fastball, curveball, and changeup.
While Blackburn doesn't throw any one pitch as often as Carrasco relies on his fastball and changeup, his lacks the same quality of depth among his favorite pitches.
Whereas Carrasco can lean on his second-favorite pitch, opponents hit well over .300 against both of Blackburn's favorite pitches last year. They also slugged .624 against his cutter.
Cleveland's Offense
Cleveland's offense has started the season hot.
It has scored at least six runs in every game so far. In three games, the Guardians have amassed 26 runs.
Against Blackburn's pitches, which they've seen 171 times from righties this year, they're slugging a solid .457.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at -117 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Colorado's Starter
Colorado starts Ryan Feltner today.
It must seem disappointing to Rockies fans that they have to continue to rely on Feltner's pitching, when last year he constantly struggled to avoid walking batters and to avoid giving up runs.
Bad Spot
This is a bad spot for Feltner to turn things around.
It is a bad spot because it is a daytime game.
In his career, he is 4-8 with a 5.23 ERA in 17 night starts, compared to 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA in 14 day starts. This is an appreciable difference.
He also struggles against Arizona: he is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks.
Especially Christian Walker owns him. Walker is 4-for-4 with two doubles and a home run against Feltner.
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pfaadt enjoyed a surge in the second half of last season, culminating in an excellent World Series effort.
His last Spring Training game, in which he allowed one run, zero walks, and accrued four strikeouts in five innings against Cleveland, shows that he has rediscovered his sharpness.
Pfaadt was mired in a rut when he faced Colorado last year, although his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was actually good in that game against the Rockies.
His FIP in that game and his good current form justify a strong expectation for him today especially facing a Rockies lineup that historically struggles outside of its uniquely hitters-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks RL (-1.5) at -105 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
L.A.'s Starter
Reid Detmers starts for the Angels today.
Detmers is in good shape, as evident in his 2.45 Spring Training ERA, which appears all the stronger if you consider how much rust he had to shake off.
While his first Spring Training start was a struggle, he allowed three earned runs in his last four Spring Training starts, totaling 16.2 innings.
Matchup History
Detmers owns the strong form that he needs to prolong his historical success against the Orioles.
He owns a 1.53 ERA in three career starts against them.
Of the 50 at-bats that active O's hitters have accumulated against him, only two resulted in extra-base hits – both doubles.
No active Oriole has more than two hits against him.
Among other, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins are combined 0-for-11 when facing Detmers.
Baltimore's Starter
Tyler Wells starts for the Orioles tonight.
In his last season, he performed a lot worse than his surface-level stats show.
His ERA looked good, but his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 4.98.
It's his good ERA last season that is contributing to the fact that Baltimore is so heavily favored today.
Wells vs. Angels
I dislike Wells today because he is building a history of poor starts against the Angels.
Last year, he allowed three runs in five innings against them.
Two years ago, he allowed three runs in four innings against them.
L.A. has had nothing but success against Wells in his starter role.
Mike Trout, for example, is 3-for-5 with two home runs against him.
First Five
This is a bet for the first five innings only.
The Angels' pitching was brutal in innings six, seven, eight, and nine last year, and this seems to be the case again this year.
So that we can take advantage of Detmers' edge today, we will stick to a first-half bet.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +135 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum
Cleveland's Starter
Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland, and he is starting again.
Carrasco owns a nice mix of pitches in his arsenal: his main ones in descending order of usage are the fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and curveball.
Heat maps show his ability, as he demonstrated it last year, to distribute his fastball throughout different parts of the strike zone. His command of this pitch makes it an effective option with which to set up his best stuff.
In particular, his changeup is tough to hit. It is a relatively hard one, and he does a great job of burying it in the lowest corners of the strike zone.
Carrasco's Outlook Today
Today, Carrasco is going to enjoy being a Guardian again.
His outlook is strong against an Oakland lineup that, having seen his pitches 130 times thrown by righties so far this season, bats .192 against them.
Oakland's Starter
Paul Blackburn starts for Oakland today.
In descending order of frequency. Blackburn throws a sinker, cutter, slider, fastball, curveball, and changeup.
While Blackburn doesn't throw any one pitch as often as Carrasco relies on his fastball and changeup, his lacks the same quality of depth among his favorite pitches.
Whereas Carrasco can lean on his second-favorite pitch, opponents hit well over .300 against both of Blackburn's favorite pitches last year. They also slugged .624 against his cutter.
Cleveland's Offense
Cleveland's offense has started the season hot.
It has scored at least six runs in every game so far. In three games, the Guardians have amassed 26 runs.
Against Blackburn's pitches, which they've seen 171 times from righties this year, they're slugging a solid .457.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at -117 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Colorado's Starter
Colorado starts Ryan Feltner today.
It must seem disappointing to Rockies fans that they have to continue to rely on Feltner's pitching, when last year he constantly struggled to avoid walking batters and to avoid giving up runs.
Bad Spot
This is a bad spot for Feltner to turn things around.
It is a bad spot because it is a daytime game.
In his career, he is 4-8 with a 5.23 ERA in 17 night starts, compared to 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA in 14 day starts. This is an appreciable difference.
He also struggles against Arizona: he is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks.
Especially Christian Walker owns him. Walker is 4-for-4 with two doubles and a home run against Feltner.
Arizona's Starter
Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pfaadt enjoyed a surge in the second half of last season, culminating in an excellent World Series effort.
His last Spring Training game, in which he allowed one run, zero walks, and accrued four strikeouts in five innings against Cleveland, shows that he has rediscovered his sharpness.
Pfaadt was mired in a rut when he faced Colorado last year, although his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was actually good in that game against the Rockies.
His FIP in that game and his good current form justify a strong expectation for him today especially facing a Rockies lineup that historically struggles outside of its uniquely hitters-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks RL (-1.5) at -105 with BetOnline
