NBA Odds & Picks March 31: The Kings Are Hungry Tonight
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Key Trend
Each of Dallas' last six games has gone "under."
This trend indicates that oddsmakers, who are slow to make adjustments, are for Mavs' games repeatedly posting over/under totals that are too high.
There is a good reason why these totals have been too high: Dallas' defense was awful particularly earlier in the season.
Dallas' Great Improvement
The total is too high in tonight's game because, despite the "under" hitting in each of Dallas' last six games, it still reflects the extent to which the Mavericks' awful defensive performances earlier in the season promoted higher over/under totals.
Dallas often failed to rotate well, to contain dribble penetration, to recover back out behind the arc.
The key is that the Mavs' defensive failures owed to a lack of effort, not a lack of capability.
I like the "under" almost as an auto-play on Mavs' games now because, as the regular season approaches its conclusion, they are clearly putting in the required effort.
It's not like they are simply beating up weak offenses.
They just faced the Kings twice in a row. Sacramento averages 117.1 points per game but scored 96 points on March 26 against these Mavericks and scored 103 points in the March 29 rematch.
Dallas' Offense
As for Dallas' offense, this group relies heavily on making three-pointers.
It will field several high-volume shooters on the court at one time.
Overall, the team ranks second in three-pointers attempted per game.
Houston's Perimeter Defense
Houston's ability to succeed on defense will depend on its ability to guard the perimeter.
Head coach Ime Udoka is doing for the Rockets what he did in his one season in Boston: turn lackluster individual defenders into a potent unit.
As a team, the Rockets defend very well, as they have bought into Udoka's concepts.
Among other strengths, they rank number one at limiting opposing three-point percentage, which makes them ideally equipped to contain Dallas' offense.
Best Bet: Under 229.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Chicago's Defensive Profile
A key factor for the outcome of this game is Chicago's defensive focus.
As a consequence of Chicago's focus on being strong around the basket, it is too easy to move the ball around the perimeter against this defense.
The Bulls struggle in this respect because they focus on assisting each other inside the arc to contain the opponent's dribble drive.
This devotion to helping inside does accomplish a lot of good. They do a great job of limiting opposing scoring around the basket.
They are especially strong at the distance of five-to-nine feet away from the basket, where they allow the fewest field goals made per game.
However, they will really struggle when an opposing offense is inclined to push the ball out to the perimeter, where they do a bad job of contesting three-point shot attempts.
Hence, they allow wide-open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency and open three-point attempts with the second-highest frequency.
Conclusion About Chicago's Defense
The takeaway is this: fade Chicago's defense against a team that wants to shoot a lot of threes; trust Chicago's defense against a team that primarily wants to score at the basket.
This distinction explains why, in their last two games, the Bulls shut down Indiana before struggling against the Nets.
This distinction also explains why we should not worry about Chicago's defense despite its last game – the Nets were a tough matchup for it.
Minnesota's Offense
I dislike Minnesota's offense because its shot profile groups it with Indiana, not with Brooklyn.
The Timberwolves rank 23rd in three-point attempts.
Conversely, they attempt the fourth-most field goals from five-to-nine feet from the basket, making them an even more ideal team for Chicago to face than Indiana was.
Chicago's Mid-Range Outlook
The mid-range is Chicago's bread-and-butter on offense.
DeMar DeRozan, who enters tonight's game having scored 27 or more points in each of his last four games, is particularly famous for his mid-range prowess.
In-form DeRozan and company will thrive against a Minnesota unit whose defenders are less effective contesting shots away from the basket.
It is hard for them to transition from moving toward the basket to defending away from the basket. A ball-handler who drives towards the basket and then pulls up will give them trouble.
It is too easy, against Minnesota, for ball-handlers to perform some move in order to get a favorable mid-range look.
Led by DeRozan, a Chicago team that ranks fifth in field goals made from 10-14 feet from the basket and second in field goals made from 15-19 feet from the basket will score a lot against a Minnesota defense that opponents are regularly inclined to attack from those spaces.
The Thunder, for example, beat Minnesota by thriving in these spaces. The Timberwolves especially struggle to limit opposing field goal efficiency from the 10-14 feet range.
Best Bet: Bulls +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Sacramento's Strong Spot
The Kings are in a great spot tonight because they are coming off a two-game losing streak.
We should expect this losing streak to make them extra-focused.
History justifies this expectation.
On March 1, they won at Minnesota after losing their last two games.
On February 14, they ended a two-game losing streak by winning at Denver.
On February 9, they were at home, where they beat the mighty Nuggets by 29 points to end their two-game losing streak.
You might ask: can they blow out Utah at all, even if we grant that the spot is conducive to their doing so?
History, again, shows that the answer is "yes." Sacramento won the first meeting between these teams by 16 in Utah and the second one by 21 at home.
Blowout Upcoming
The Kings capably reach 130 points against perimeter defenses, such as Toronto's and Milwaukee's, that are not good but stronger than Utah's.
This being a good spot for the Kings – and not for a Utah team that struggles to reach 110 points especially lately and away from home – we can expect them to come out firing.
Sacramento has every reason to be confident that it can blow out lowly Utah again.
Best Bet: Kings -12.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Key Trend
Each of Dallas' last six games has gone "under."
This trend indicates that oddsmakers, who are slow to make adjustments, are for Mavs' games repeatedly posting over/under totals that are too high.
There is a good reason why these totals have been too high: Dallas' defense was awful particularly earlier in the season.
Dallas' Great Improvement
The total is too high in tonight's game because, despite the "under" hitting in each of Dallas' last six games, it still reflects the extent to which the Mavericks' awful defensive performances earlier in the season promoted higher over/under totals.
Dallas often failed to rotate well, to contain dribble penetration, to recover back out behind the arc.
The key is that the Mavs' defensive failures owed to a lack of effort, not a lack of capability.
I like the "under" almost as an auto-play on Mavs' games now because, as the regular season approaches its conclusion, they are clearly putting in the required effort.
It's not like they are simply beating up weak offenses.
They just faced the Kings twice in a row. Sacramento averages 117.1 points per game but scored 96 points on March 26 against these Mavericks and scored 103 points in the March 29 rematch.
Dallas' Offense
As for Dallas' offense, this group relies heavily on making three-pointers.
It will field several high-volume shooters on the court at one time.
Overall, the team ranks second in three-pointers attempted per game.
Houston's Perimeter Defense
Houston's ability to succeed on defense will depend on its ability to guard the perimeter.
Head coach Ime Udoka is doing for the Rockets what he did in his one season in Boston: turn lackluster individual defenders into a potent unit.
As a team, the Rockets defend very well, as they have bought into Udoka's concepts.
Among other strengths, they rank number one at limiting opposing three-point percentage, which makes them ideally equipped to contain Dallas' offense.
Best Bet: Under 229.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Chicago's Defensive Profile
A key factor for the outcome of this game is Chicago's defensive focus.
As a consequence of Chicago's focus on being strong around the basket, it is too easy to move the ball around the perimeter against this defense.
The Bulls struggle in this respect because they focus on assisting each other inside the arc to contain the opponent's dribble drive.
This devotion to helping inside does accomplish a lot of good. They do a great job of limiting opposing scoring around the basket.
They are especially strong at the distance of five-to-nine feet away from the basket, where they allow the fewest field goals made per game.
However, they will really struggle when an opposing offense is inclined to push the ball out to the perimeter, where they do a bad job of contesting three-point shot attempts.
Hence, they allow wide-open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency and open three-point attempts with the second-highest frequency.
Conclusion About Chicago's Defense
The takeaway is this: fade Chicago's defense against a team that wants to shoot a lot of threes; trust Chicago's defense against a team that primarily wants to score at the basket.
This distinction explains why, in their last two games, the Bulls shut down Indiana before struggling against the Nets.
This distinction also explains why we should not worry about Chicago's defense despite its last game – the Nets were a tough matchup for it.
Minnesota's Offense
I dislike Minnesota's offense because its shot profile groups it with Indiana, not with Brooklyn.
The Timberwolves rank 23rd in three-point attempts.
Conversely, they attempt the fourth-most field goals from five-to-nine feet from the basket, making them an even more ideal team for Chicago to face than Indiana was.
Chicago's Mid-Range Outlook
The mid-range is Chicago's bread-and-butter on offense.
DeMar DeRozan, who enters tonight's game having scored 27 or more points in each of his last four games, is particularly famous for his mid-range prowess.
In-form DeRozan and company will thrive against a Minnesota unit whose defenders are less effective contesting shots away from the basket.
It is hard for them to transition from moving toward the basket to defending away from the basket. A ball-handler who drives towards the basket and then pulls up will give them trouble.
It is too easy, against Minnesota, for ball-handlers to perform some move in order to get a favorable mid-range look.
Led by DeRozan, a Chicago team that ranks fifth in field goals made from 10-14 feet from the basket and second in field goals made from 15-19 feet from the basket will score a lot against a Minnesota defense that opponents are regularly inclined to attack from those spaces.
The Thunder, for example, beat Minnesota by thriving in these spaces. The Timberwolves especially struggle to limit opposing field goal efficiency from the 10-14 feet range.
Best Bet: Bulls +8 at -110 with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Sacramento's Strong Spot
The Kings are in a great spot tonight because they are coming off a two-game losing streak.
We should expect this losing streak to make them extra-focused.
History justifies this expectation.
On March 1, they won at Minnesota after losing their last two games.
On February 14, they ended a two-game losing streak by winning at Denver.
On February 9, they were at home, where they beat the mighty Nuggets by 29 points to end their two-game losing streak.
You might ask: can they blow out Utah at all, even if we grant that the spot is conducive to their doing so?
History, again, shows that the answer is "yes." Sacramento won the first meeting between these teams by 16 in Utah and the second one by 21 at home.
Blowout Upcoming
The Kings capably reach 130 points against perimeter defenses, such as Toronto's and Milwaukee's, that are not good but stronger than Utah's.
This being a good spot for the Kings – and not for a Utah team that struggles to reach 110 points especially lately and away from home – we can expect them to come out firing.
Sacramento has every reason to be confident that it can blow out lowly Utah again.
Best Bet: Kings -12.5 at -105 with BetOnline
