NBA Top Picks March 3: There's Magic in Orlando Today
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Kia Center in Orlando
Orlando's Strong Form
The Magic enter today's game in strong form.
They've won their last two games plus five out of their last six, seven out of their last nine, and ten out of their last thirteen.
While they haven't been winning all of their games by as many points as they would need to in order to cover today's spread, they've been playing – and defeating – much tougher teams, including the Knicks and Cavaliers.
It is true that their last game against Detroit was a close one, but it took place on the road and featured unusually strong three-point shooting from the Pistons.
Their second-to-last game against the Pistons, which also took place in Detroit, showed Orlando's capability: the Magic won 111-99.
The point that I will make is that matchup analysis leads us to expect Orlando to win by a lot of points.
The fact that these two teams played a close affair in their last meeting will only help us by ensuring that the Magic take lowly Detroit seriously.
Orlando's Offense
The Magic primarily want to score at the basket.
Their offense features a lot of drives from forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
Guards Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony also love to attack the basket.
These players largely help explain how it is that the Magic attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Detroit's Defense
Detroit is highly vulnerable to teams who want to focus on scoring in the way that Orlando does.
While guarding the perimeter, Pistons defenders regularly get beat off the dribble.
They also lack rim protection.
For these reasons, guards as well as everyone else have a relatively easy time scoring at their basket.
Overall, they allow the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Orlando's Well-Rounded Defense
Unlike Detroit, Orlando is a team that is immensely tough to score in at the basket.
The Magic allow the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
At the same time, they do a great job of preventing open shooting opportunities from behind the arc.
Their all-around great defense enables them to allow fewer than 100 points with impressive regularity, which means that their offense does not have to score too many points to cover the spread when they're favored.
Detroit, anyhow, is allergic to shooting threes from behind the arc, instead remaining dependent on scoring at the rim.
Orlando's stout rim protection, spearheaded by well-reputed center Wendell Carter, contributes significantly to its ability to be well-rounded.
Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris
Look out for guards Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris for Orlando.
Both players complement their teammates' inside scoring prowess by being consistently efficient behind the arc.
Suggs enters today's game having made 50 percent or greater of his three-point opportunities in four straight games. Harris has done this in five straight games.
Each player is also thriving in recent history against Detroit's vulnerable defense.
With these two guards, there are too many scoring options for Orlando to help its solid defense ensure the ATS win.
Best Bet: Magic -11 at -110 with BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Toronto's Offense
While the Raptors are comfortable shooting a lot of threes, they primarily want to attack the basket.
Guard Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett ably drive the ball inside.
Center Jakob Poeltl is a highly efficient scorer at the basket.
These players help Toronto make the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Charlotte's Defense
Not that Charlotte defends the perimeter well, but its rim protection is particularly non-existent.
A lot of the problems are the same: the Hornets this year defend poorly inside and outside the arc because their players don't coordinate effectively.
For example, you'll often see one defender assume more responsibilities than he should.
These various problems add up to Charlotte allowing the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket, rendering it highly vulnerable to Toronto's preferred method of scoring.
Moreover, these problems have been prominent lately, as the Hornets enter today's contest allowing almost an average of almost 120 points in their last three games.
Toronto's Struggling Defense
I like the "over" today because, defensively, Toronto has been struggling more than almost every team, even including Charlotte.
The Raptors are allowing 126 points per game in their last three games.
Charlotte enters today's game trending upwards offensively, as in its last game it demonstrated strong inside scoring from center Nick Richards, Miles Bridges' characteristic versatility, and good production from the bench.
Recent evidence of what this confluence of scoring threats can accomplish is, in view of Toronto's consistent struggles on defense, all that is needed for Charlotte's ability to contribute to the "over" to look solid.
As discussed, Toronto's offense will also help Charlotte add a high point total to the final score.
Best Bet: Over 222.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio
Bounce-Back Spot
Indiana is in a great spot tonight because it is coming off a double-digit loss.
They've won their last four games that directly followed a double-digit loss: they beat top-caliber Boston, won by five at Sacramento, won by 16 at Charlotte, and won by 14 in New York.
The Pacers are, in this sort of bounce-back situation, beating good teams and winning by a lot of points.
They have demonstrated this ability to bounce back strongly from an awful performance throughout the year, but it has been most salient in their most recent history.
Indiana's Outlook on Offense
The Pacers have so many ways of reaching absurdly high point totals in games.
They are one of the NBA's most efficient three-point shooting units, making them a suitable candidate to take advantage of San Antonio's perimeter defense because the Spurs have an awful tendency to allow wide-open three-point attempts – of which they allow the sixth-most per game.
But they also love scoring at the basket, where they'll exploit a Spurs defense that lacks rim protection and that struggles to apply pressure at the basket.
San Antonio Can't Keep Pace
The Spurs' talent deficit, relative to Indiana's talent, is evident in their last-place ranking in three-point conversion rate.
But they also won't be able to score inside easily with shot-blocker Myles Turner protecting the basket for the Pacers.
Turner's presence inside allows Indiana to guard the perimeter closely and aggressively, limiting opponents' uncontested looks behind the arc, because Turner's teammates know that they have a well-reputed center behind them who ably deters shots at the rim.
Best Bet: Pacers -6.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Kia Center in Orlando
Orlando's Strong Form
The Magic enter today's game in strong form.
They've won their last two games plus five out of their last six, seven out of their last nine, and ten out of their last thirteen.
While they haven't been winning all of their games by as many points as they would need to in order to cover today's spread, they've been playing – and defeating – much tougher teams, including the Knicks and Cavaliers.
It is true that their last game against Detroit was a close one, but it took place on the road and featured unusually strong three-point shooting from the Pistons.
Their second-to-last game against the Pistons, which also took place in Detroit, showed Orlando's capability: the Magic won 111-99.
The point that I will make is that matchup analysis leads us to expect Orlando to win by a lot of points.
The fact that these two teams played a close affair in their last meeting will only help us by ensuring that the Magic take lowly Detroit seriously.
Orlando's Offense
The Magic primarily want to score at the basket.
Their offense features a lot of drives from forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
Guards Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony also love to attack the basket.
These players largely help explain how it is that the Magic attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Detroit's Defense
Detroit is highly vulnerable to teams who want to focus on scoring in the way that Orlando does.
While guarding the perimeter, Pistons defenders regularly get beat off the dribble.
They also lack rim protection.
For these reasons, guards as well as everyone else have a relatively easy time scoring at their basket.
Overall, they allow the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Orlando's Well-Rounded Defense
Unlike Detroit, Orlando is a team that is immensely tough to score in at the basket.
The Magic allow the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
At the same time, they do a great job of preventing open shooting opportunities from behind the arc.
Their all-around great defense enables them to allow fewer than 100 points with impressive regularity, which means that their offense does not have to score too many points to cover the spread when they're favored.
Detroit, anyhow, is allergic to shooting threes from behind the arc, instead remaining dependent on scoring at the rim.
Orlando's stout rim protection, spearheaded by well-reputed center Wendell Carter, contributes significantly to its ability to be well-rounded.
Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris
Look out for guards Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris for Orlando.
Both players complement their teammates' inside scoring prowess by being consistently efficient behind the arc.
Suggs enters today's game having made 50 percent or greater of his three-point opportunities in four straight games. Harris has done this in five straight games.
Each player is also thriving in recent history against Detroit's vulnerable defense.
With these two guards, there are too many scoring options for Orlando to help its solid defense ensure the ATS win.
Best Bet: Magic -11 at -110 with BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Toronto's Offense
While the Raptors are comfortable shooting a lot of threes, they primarily want to attack the basket.
Guard Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett ably drive the ball inside.
Center Jakob Poeltl is a highly efficient scorer at the basket.
These players help Toronto make the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Charlotte's Defense
Not that Charlotte defends the perimeter well, but its rim protection is particularly non-existent.
A lot of the problems are the same: the Hornets this year defend poorly inside and outside the arc because their players don't coordinate effectively.
For example, you'll often see one defender assume more responsibilities than he should.
These various problems add up to Charlotte allowing the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket, rendering it highly vulnerable to Toronto's preferred method of scoring.
Moreover, these problems have been prominent lately, as the Hornets enter today's contest allowing almost an average of almost 120 points in their last three games.
Toronto's Struggling Defense
I like the "over" today because, defensively, Toronto has been struggling more than almost every team, even including Charlotte.
The Raptors are allowing 126 points per game in their last three games.
Charlotte enters today's game trending upwards offensively, as in its last game it demonstrated strong inside scoring from center Nick Richards, Miles Bridges' characteristic versatility, and good production from the bench.
Recent evidence of what this confluence of scoring threats can accomplish is, in view of Toronto's consistent struggles on defense, all that is needed for Charlotte's ability to contribute to the "over" to look solid.
As discussed, Toronto's offense will also help Charlotte add a high point total to the final score.
Best Bet: Over 222.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio
Bounce-Back Spot
Indiana is in a great spot tonight because it is coming off a double-digit loss.
They've won their last four games that directly followed a double-digit loss: they beat top-caliber Boston, won by five at Sacramento, won by 16 at Charlotte, and won by 14 in New York.
The Pacers are, in this sort of bounce-back situation, beating good teams and winning by a lot of points.
They have demonstrated this ability to bounce back strongly from an awful performance throughout the year, but it has been most salient in their most recent history.
Indiana's Outlook on Offense
The Pacers have so many ways of reaching absurdly high point totals in games.
They are one of the NBA's most efficient three-point shooting units, making them a suitable candidate to take advantage of San Antonio's perimeter defense because the Spurs have an awful tendency to allow wide-open three-point attempts – of which they allow the sixth-most per game.
But they also love scoring at the basket, where they'll exploit a Spurs defense that lacks rim protection and that struggles to apply pressure at the basket.
San Antonio Can't Keep Pace
The Spurs' talent deficit, relative to Indiana's talent, is evident in their last-place ranking in three-point conversion rate.
But they also won't be able to score inside easily with shot-blocker Myles Turner protecting the basket for the Pacers.
Turner's presence inside allows Indiana to guard the perimeter closely and aggressively, limiting opponents' uncontested looks behind the arc, because Turner's teammates know that they have a well-reputed center behind them who ably deters shots at the rim.
Best Bet: Pacers -6.5 at -105 with BetOnline
